Stocksund v Enköping prediction · Ettan

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 21:01

Stocksund 1–3 Enköping ENKÖPING WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Enköping win~~45%

~~The market said~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.473

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.258

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Enköping win at 45%.
1′Much as we predicted: Enköping was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 35–21–44
1′KICK-OFF Stocksund v Enköping
2′Stocksund score on 2′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 56–19–25
2′We said Enköping at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 25%. 1–0 · 56–19–25
2′⚽ GOAL · 2' Stocksund 1–0 Enköping
2′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 2' Enköping win: 45% at kick-off, 25% now
2′THE CALL SWINGS · 2' Stocksund win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Enköping win 25%)
3′GOAL DISALLOWED · 3' Stocksund
3′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 3' Enköping win: 45% at kick-off, 44% now
3′THE CALL SWINGS · 3' Enköping win is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Stocksund win 35%)
30′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Enköping
35′Enköping score on 35′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 13–19–67
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Stocksund 0–1 Enköping
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Enköping win: 45% at kick-off, 67% now
36′We published Enköping at 45%. Our model now makes it 67%. 0–1 · 13–19–67
45′HALF-TIME Stocksund 0–2 Enköping
46′Enköping find the net on 45′. 0–2. 0–2 · 3–8–89
46′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' Stocksund 0–2 Enköping
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+1' Enköping win: 45% at kick-off, 89% now
46′SECOND HALF Stocksund 0–2 Enköping
47′We published Enköping at 45%. Our model now makes it 89%. 0–2 · 3–8–89
47′Goals are coming at about the 4.0 we expected. 0–2 · 3–8–89
49′We published Enköping at 45%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–2 · 3–8–90
49′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Stocksund
57′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Stocksund
63′A goal for Enköping on 63′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–1–99
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Stocksund 0–3 Enköping
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Enköping win: 45% at kick-off, 99% now
64′We published Enköping at 45%. Our model now makes it 99%. 0–3 · 0–1–99
72′We published Enköping at 45%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
93′Stocksund score on 90′ to make it 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Stocksund 1–3 Enköping
FTFULL TIME Stocksund 1–3 Enköping
FTStocksund 1–3 Enköping · Enköping win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Enköping are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Stocksund 35%, draw 20%, Enköping 45%. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 74%.

The AI’s read on Stocksund v EnköpingBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Stocksund win35%

Draw20%

Enköping win45%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 18:30

RoundNorra · matchday 27

VenueDanderyd IP

Line-ups

Stocksund

Enköping

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Stocksund

Enköping

7Days since last match5

Last match: 9 Oct · Ettan - Norra

Last match: 11 Oct · Ettan - Norra

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Enköping	26	−1	45
16	Stocksund	26	−19	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Stocksund

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Rhawi

3 E. Bodvik

4 C. Jonsson

5 M. Vogele

6 L. Romano

7 D. Hussein

8 D. Boto

9 Y. Rauf

10 K. Engstrom

11 L. Wennerlind

13 E. Rylander

Coach · Adam Gursoy

Substitutes

2 · A. Floric

12 · S. Badome

14 · C. Royo

16 · M. Molinder

18 · C. Selfven

19 · A. L. Mumuni

20 · E. Mougnol

Enköping

Formation not confirmed

1 T. Kvist

4 M. Ozgun

6 M. Belouchi

7 M. Abdi

10 H. Noori

12 L. Nwafor

15 F. Ededal

17 A. Sveijer

22 N. Seidouvy

23 H. Norrlin

40 I. Braholm

Coach · –

Substitutes

2 · W. Bjork

3 · M. Hadell

5 · A. Lundgren

8 · A. Omondi

9 · F. Johansson

16 · J. Zucco

32 · V. Astor

Our number · enköping winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 12 Oct 04:05 · locked at kick-off

45% The market59%

Us45%

~~Market~~59%

We make Enköping a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 14 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–2.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Stocksund v Enköping~~1.89 – 2.14

~~Form · last six in Ettan - Norra this season · since 10 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 15 v 45~~16 v 5

~~The market · Enköping win~~59% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Enköping win The market, margin stripped

Published at 44%, 45% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Stocksund win	35%	23%	+12
Draw	20%	19%	+1
Enköping win	45%	59%	−14
Over 2.5 goals	76%	71%	+5
Both teams to score	74%	67%	+7
Over 1.5 goals	91%	87%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	57%	50%	+7
Stocksund or draw	55%	41%	+14
Stocksund clean sheet	12%	–	–
Enköping clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 7.6%

0123450 3.9 4.1 2.9 1 3.5 7.2 7.6 5.4 2.9 2 3.2 6.7 7.0 5.0 2.7 3 2.0 4.2 4.4 3.2 4 2.0 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Stocksund down, Enköping across0–5 goals a side shown (96.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,408 Ettan - Norra matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ettan - Norra matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.1% of games this season, across 208 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 5.00 goals a meeting; 5 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Stocksund at home: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Enköping away: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.89 goals for Stocksund, 2.14 for Enköping. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 5

~~Both scored~~5 of 5

~~Last meetings~~ENK 3–2 STO · STO 2–3 ENK · ENK 5–1 STO · STO 3–1 ENK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ettan - Norra this season · since 10 Sept

STOCKSUND

WLLLDL2–1 · 2–5 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–3

ENKÖPING

WWDLWW2–1 · 3–2 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Stockholm Internazionale	26	+42	60
2	Arlanda	26	+15	48
3	AFC Eskilstuna	26	+11	47
4	Hammarby Talang	26	+25	45
5	Enköping	26	−1	45
6	IF Karlstad	26	+15	44
7	FBK Karlstad	26	+5	43
8	Assyriska FF	26	−1	35
9	Umeå FC	26	−6	35
10	Karlberg	26	−8	33
11	Gefle IF	26	−14	31
12	Vasalund	26	−16	28
13	Sollentuna	26	−9	27
14	Piteå	26	−16	23
15	Järfälla	26	−23	19
16	Stocksund	26	−19	15