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Model 1.2

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Stockholm Internazionale v Gefle IF

Stockholm Internazionale
1–1Full time
Gefle IF

Ettan - Norra · SAT 17 OCT · Kristinebergs IP

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10
Stockholm Internazionale 1–1 Gefle IF STOCKHOLM INTERNAZIONALE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Stockholm Internazionale win71%
The market said74%
Brier score, this match · lower is better1.182
The market’s Brier score1.272

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 19 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Stockholm Internazionale win at 71%.
  2. 18′A goal for Stockholm Internazionale on 18′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 88–9–3
  3. 18′We said Stockholm Internazionale at 71% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 88%. 1–0 · 88–9–3
  4. 20′Gefle IF score on 20′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 65–23–12
  5. 20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Stockholm Internazionale 1–1 Gefle IF
  6. 20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Stockholm Internazionale win: 71% at kick-off, 65% now
  7. 21′Little has changed for our model: Stockholm Internazionale 71% before kick-off, 65% now. 1–1 · 65–23–12
  8. 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Stockholm Internazionale win: 71% at kick-off, 61% now
  9. 35′We said Stockholm Internazionale at 71%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 59%. 1–1 · 59–28–13
  10. 44′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Stockholm Internazionale
  11. 45′We said Stockholm Internazionale at 71%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 54%. 1–1 · 54–33–13
  12. 45′HALF-TIME Stockholm Internazionale 1–1 Gefle IF
  13. 46′SECOND HALF Stockholm Internazionale 1–1 Gefle IF
  14. 49′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 1–1 · 52–36–12
  15. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Stockholm Internazionale win: 71% at kick-off, 51% now
  16. 53′We said Stockholm Internazionale at 71%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 1–1 · 49–38–12
  17. 58′SUBSTITUTION · 51' Stockholm Internazionale · On: A. Bergendahl Karki · Off: C. Weilid
  18. 60′We said Stockholm Internazionale at 71%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 1–1 · 44–44–12
  19. 63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Stockholm Internazionale win 42%)
  20. 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Stockholm Internazionale win: 71% at kick-off, 41% now
  21. 66′We said Stockholm Internazionale at 71%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–51–11
  22. 70′We said Stockholm Internazionale at 71%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–56–10
  23. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Stockholm Internazionale win: 71% at kick-off, 31% now
  24. 73′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Stockholm Internazionale
  25. 74′We said Stockholm Internazionale at 71%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–62–9
  26. 78′We said Stockholm Internazionale at 71%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–69–7
  27. 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Stockholm Internazionale win: 71% at kick-off, 20% now
  28. 81′We said Stockholm Internazionale at 71%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–76–6
  29. 84′We said Stockholm Internazionale at 71%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 1–1 · 13–83–4
  30. 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Stockholm Internazionale win: 71% at kick-off, 11% now
  31. 88′We said Stockholm Internazionale at 71%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–88–3
  32. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Gefle IF · On: M. Spangberg · Off: R. Nehrman
  33. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Stockholm Internazionale · On: S. Loyola-Nyden · Off: S. Conta
  34. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Stockholm Internazionale · On: O. Leonardsson · Off: O. Edlund
  35. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Stockholm Internazionale · On: M. Canoilas · Off: O. Salama
  36. 93′We said Stockholm Internazionale at 71%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–95–1
  37. FTFULL TIME Stockholm Internazionale 1–1 Gefle IF
  38. FTStockholm Internazionale 1–1 Gefle IF · Stockholm Internazionale win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Stockholm Internazionale are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Stockholm Internazionale 71%, draw 18%, Gefle IF 11%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Stockholm Internazionale v Gefle IFBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Stockholm Internazionale win71%
Draw18%
Gefle IF win11%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundNorra · matchday 27

VenueKristinebergs IP

Line-ups

Stockholm Internazionale

Gefle IF

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Stockholm Internazionale

Gefle IF

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · Ettan - Norra

Last match: 11 Oct · Ettan - Norra

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
1Stockholm Internazionale26+4260
11Gefle IF26−1431

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Stockholm Internazionale

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Bringzen

3 S. Conta

5 D. Fallman

8 L. Dobrijevic

9 L. Sunesson

15 O. Edlund

16 O. Jarde

18 R. Allback

21 O. Salama

22 C. Weilid

27 Z. Ghanoum

Coach · –

Substitutes

30 · S. Rose Meyer

6 · S. Loyola-Nyden

10 · M. Cosic

14 · M. Canoilas

17 · A. Bergendahl Karki

20 · O. Leonardsson

23 · D. Tokpah

Gefle IF

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Croon

2 E. Larsson

4 T. Hansemon

5 D. Ismail

9 A. Zahirovic

11 L. Vikgren

15 A. Nezirevic

16 R. Nehrman

23 N. Lundstrom

24 K. Persson

77 S. Zulum

Coach · –

Substitutes

22 · W. Hedvall

3 · K. Myrttinen

6 · I. Edman

8 · M. Kouyate

18 · M. Spangberg

19 · A. Sipic

20 · Y. Sugita

Our number · stockholm internazionale winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 04:05 · locked at kick-off
71% The market74%
Us71%
Market74%

We make Stockholm Internazionale a 71% chance to win. The market has them at 74%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Stockholm Internazionale v Gefle IF2.23 – 0.75
Form · last six in Ettan - Norra this season · since 12 SeptW6 D0 L0 · W2 D1 L3
Table places · points 60 v 311 v 11
The market · Stockholm Internazionale win74% · ours 71%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
65%70%75%80% 11 OCT 04:0617 OCT 14:16
Our probability · Stockholm Internazionale win The market, margin stripped

Published at 70%, 71% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 74% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Stockholm Internazionale win71%74%−3
Draw18%16%+2
Gefle IF win11%10%+1
Over 2.5 goals57%62%−5
Both teams to score46%49%−3
Over 1.5 goals79%81%−2
Over 3.5 goals35%41%−6
Stockholm Internazionale or draw89%90%−1
Stockholm Internazionale clean sheet48%––
Gefle IF clean sheet11%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 12.5%
0123450 5.4 3.9 1 11.4 8.5 3.2 2 12.5 9.2 3.5 3 9.3 6.8 2.5 4 5.3 3.8 5 2.4
under 2% 5% 12%+Stockholm Internazionale down, Gefle IF across0–5 goals a side shown (97.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting2.20
Over 2.51 of 5
Both scored1 of 5
Last meetingsGEF 0–2 STO · STO 2–0 GEF · GEF 0–1 STO · GEF 4–1 STO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ettan - Norra this season · since 12 Sept

STOCKHOLM INTERNAZIONALE

WWWWWW4–0 · 5–2 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 3–1

GEFLE IF

WLWLLD3–1 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 3–3

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Stockholm Internazionale26+4260
2Arlanda26+1548
3Enköping27+148
4AFC Eskilstuna26+1147
5Hammarby Talang26+2545
6IF Karlstad26+1544
7FBK Karlstad26+543
8Assyriska FF26−135
9Umeå FC26−635
10Karlberg26−833
11Gefle IF26−1431
12Vasalund26−1628
13Sollentuna26−927
14Piteå26−1623
15Järfälla26−2319
16Stocksund27−2115

The competition's standings before kick-off.