Sollentuna v Vasalund prediction · Ettan

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Sollentuna 2–0 Vasalund VASALUND WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Vasalund win~~39%

~~The market said~~34%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.596

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.530

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Vasalund win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Vasalund was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 38–23–39
1′KICK-OFF Sollentuna v Vasalund
34′We said Vasalund at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 65–22–14
34′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 1–0 · 65–22–14
34′Sollentuna find the net on 33′. 1–0. 1–0 · 65–22–14
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Sollentuna 1–0 Vasalund
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Vasalund win: 39% at kick-off, 14% now
34′THE CALL SWINGS · 34' Sollentuna win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Vasalund win 35%)
45′Sollentuna ahead on 34′ through N. Josefsberg. 1–0. 1–0 · 67–22–11
45′HALF-TIME Sollentuna 1–0 Vasalund
46′SECOND HALF Sollentuna 1–0 Vasalund
49′🟨 YELLOW · 45+4' Vasalund
50′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Vasalund
51′We said Vasalund at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 69–22–9
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Vasalund win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
65′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Vasalund · On: N. Birgoth · Off: E. Mac Callum
65′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Vasalund · On: C. Sliwo · Off: M. Ostergren
65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Sollentuna · On: E. Stenstrand · Off: L. Ennart
65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Sollentuna · On: E. Karlsson · Off: N. Josefsberg
66′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Sollentuna
68′We said Vasalund at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 76–20–4
74′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Vasalund
79′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Sollentuna
81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Vasalund
83′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Vasalund · On: L. Lundvall · Off: L. Kallman
83′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Vasalund · On: P. Soelberg · Off: M. Nikolic
86′A goal for Sollentuna on 85′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
86′⚽ GOAL · 85' Sollentuna 2–0 Vasalund
91′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Sollentuna · On: F. Rosenquist · Off: K. Grauberg
91′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Vasalund · On: B. Bilgec · Off: A. Khan
FTFULL TIME Sollentuna 2–0 Vasalund
FTSollentuna 2–0 Vasalund · Vasalund win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Vasalund just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Sollentuna 38%, draw 23%, Vasalund 39%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Sollentuna v VasalundBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Sollentuna win38%

Draw23%

Vasalund win39%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundNorra · matchday 28

VenueSollentunavallen

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sollentuna

Vasalund

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Ettan - Norra

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Sollentuna	27	−9	28
13	Vasalund	27	−20	28

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · vasalund winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off

39% The market34%

Us39%

~~Market~~34%

We make Vasalund a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sollentuna v Vasalund~~1.60 – 1.64

~~Form · last six in Ettan - Norra this season · since 16 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 28 v 28~~12 v 13

~~The market · Vasalund win~~34% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Vasalund win The market, margin stripped

Published at 41%, 39% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 34% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sollentuna win	38%	41%	−3
Draw	23%	25%	−2
Vasalund win	39%	34%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	62%	62%	0
Both teams to score	64%	65%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	83%	81%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	41%	43%	−2
Sollentuna or draw	61%	66%	−5
Sollentuna clean sheet	20%	–	–
Vasalund clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.3%

0123450 4.2 6.5 5.3 2.9 1 6.3 10.3 8.3 4.5 2 5.1 8.1 6.5 3.6 3 2.7 4.3 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sollentuna down, Vasalund across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,417 Ettan - Norra matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ettan - Norra matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.8% of games this season, across 217 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.90 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sollentuna at home: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Vasalund away: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.60 goals for Sollentuna, 1.64 for Vasalund. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.90

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~VAS 1–1 SOL · SOL 3–2 VAS · VAS 4–1 SOL · VAS 5–2 SOL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ettan - Norra this season · since 16 Sept

SOLLENTUNA

LDLLWD2–3 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 3–0 · 1–1

VASALUND

DLWLDL0–0 · 1–5 · 1–0 · 1–4 · 3–3 · 0–4

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Stockholm Internazionale	27	+42	61
2	AFC Eskilstuna	27	+15	50
3	Hammarby Talang	28	+26	49
4	Arlanda	27	+13	48
5	Enköping	27	+1	48
6	FBK Karlstad	27	+7	46
7	IF Karlstad	27	+14	44
8	Umeå FC	27	−4	38
9	Assyriska FF	27	−3	35
10	Karlberg	27	−10	33
11	Gefle IF	27	−14	32
12	Sollentuna	27	−9	28
13	Vasalund	27	−20	28
14	Piteå	27	−16	24
15	Järfälla	28	−21	23
16	Stocksund	27	−21	15