Home › Football › Ettan - Norra › Sollentuna v Stocksund

Sollentuna v Stocksund

Sollentuna

3–0Full time

Stocksund

Ettan - Norra · FRI 9 OCT · Sollentunavallen

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 20:30

Sollentuna 3–0 Stocksund SOLLENTUNA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sollentuna win~~46%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.450

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.299

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sollentuna win at 46%.
27′Much as we predicted: Sollentuna was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–26–32
36′We published Sollentuna at 46%. Our model now makes it 69%. 1–0 · 69–19–12
36′37′ and it is 1–0: Sollentuna have scored. 1–0 · 69–19–12
37′37′ and it is 1–0: Sollentuna have scored. 1–0 · 69–19–12
38′37′ and it is 1–0: Sollentuna have scored. 1–0 · 69–19–12
39′37′ and it is 1–0: Sollentuna have scored. 1–0 · 69–19–11
39′⚽ GOAL · 37' Sollentuna 1–0 Stocksund
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Sollentuna win: 46% at kick-off, 69% now
42′38′ and it is 1–0: L. Johansson on the scoresheet for Sollentuna. 1–0 · 70–20–11
45′SECOND HALF Sollentuna 1–0 Stocksund
46′🟨 YELLOW · 16' L. Ennart · Sollentuna
46′⚽ GOAL · 38' Sollentuna 1–0 Stocksund · L. Johansson (assist S. Nkubiri)
53′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Sollentuna · On: E. W. Marshage · Off: F. Rosenquist
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Sollentuna 2–0 Stocksund · L. Johansson
67′⚽ GOAL · 69' Sollentuna 2–0 Stocksund
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Stocksund · On: J. Sibeene · Off: S. Lager Corrected
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Stocksund · On: D. Hussein · Off: N. Wagberg
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Stocksund · On: A. L. Mumuni · Off: A. Floric Corrected
83′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Sollentuna · On: K. Stregart · Off: O. Kack
83′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Stocksund · On: E. Bodvik · Off: D. Boto Corrected
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Sollentuna · On: D. Rashidi · Off: J. Backstrom
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Sollentuna · On: M. Jelassi · Off: K. Grauberg
92′⚽ GOAL · 92' Sollentuna 3–0 Stocksund · O. Kack
92′SUBSTITUTION · 91' Sollentuna · On: E. Karlsson · Off: S. Nkubiri
92′⚽ GOAL · 93' Sollentuna 3–0 Stocksund
FTFULL TIME Sollentuna 3–0 Stocksund
FTSollentuna 3–0 Stocksund · Sollentuna win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Sollentuna win46%

Draw21%

Stocksund win33%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 18:00

Venue · Sollentunavallen

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Sollentuna

Formation not confirmed

1 O. Franck

2 L. Johansson

6 O. Kack

7 J. Backstrom

9 K. Grauberg

11 S. Nkubiri

12 U. Aras

14 F. Rosenquist

18 E. Lundell

19 L. Ennart

27 C. Axelsson

Coach · Johan Palm

Substitutes

3 · K. Stregart

10 · D. Rashidi

16 · N. Josefsberg

21 · E. W. Marshage

23 · M. Jelassi

24 · E. Karlsson

35 · V. Blumenthal

Stocksund

Formation not confirmed

1 V. Strindlund

2 A. Floric

3 B. Magnusson

5 M. Vogele

6 S. Lager

7 Y. Rauf

8 D. Boto

9 N. Wagberg

10 K. Engstrom

11 L. Wennerlind

13 E. Mougnol

Coach · Adam Gursoy

Substitutes

4 · C. Jonsson

12 · S. Badome

16 · J. Sibeene

17 · D. Hussein

19 · A. L. Mumuni

20 · E. Bodvik

31 · J. Rhawi

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Sollentuna

Formation not confirmed

1 O. Franck

2 L. Johansson

6 O. Kack

7 J. Backstrom

9 K. Grauberg

11 S. Nkubiri

12 U. Aras

14 F. Rosenquist

18 E. Lundell

19 L. Ennart

27 C. Axelsson

Coach · Johan Palm

Substitutes

3 · K. Stregart

10 · D. Rashidi

16 · N. Josefsberg

21 · E. W. Marshage

23 · M. Jelassi

24 · E. Karlsson

35 · V. Blumenthal

Stocksund

Formation not confirmed

1 V. Strindlund

2 A. Floric

3 B. Magnusson

5 M. Vogele

6 S. Lager

7 Y. Rauf

8 D. Boto

9 N. Wagberg

10 K. Engstrom

11 L. Wennerlind

13 E. Mougnol

Coach · Adam Gursoy

Substitutes

4 · C. Jonsson

12 · S. Badome

16 · J. Sibeene

17 · D. Hussein

19 · A. L. Mumuni

20 · E. Bodvik

31 · J. Rhawi

Our number · sollentuna winPublished 9 Oct 18:04

46% The market55%

Us46%

~~Market~~55%

We make Sollentuna a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · sollentuna win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 57% to 55% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sollentuna win	46%	55%	−10
Draw	21%	22%	−2
Stocksund win	33%	22%	+11
Over 2.5 goals	73%	65%	+8
Both teams to score	72%	64%	+8
Over 1.5 goals	89%	84%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	53%	45%	+8
Sollentuna or draw	67%	78%	−11
Sollentuna clean sheet	18%	–	–
Stocksund clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.0%

0123450 2.4 3.8 3.4 1 4.5 8.0 6.8 4.0 2 4.7 8.0 7.0 4.1 3 3.2 5.6 4.8 2.8 4 2.9 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sollentuna down, Stocksund across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,400 Ettan - Norra matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ettan - Norra matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.5% of games this season, across 200 played.

Head to head

7 previous meetings, 4.43 goals a meeting; 7 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sollentuna at home: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Stocksund away: 1.33 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.08 goals for Sollentuna, 1.76 for Stocksund. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~4.43

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 7

~~Both scored~~7 of 7

~~Last meetings~~STO 3–3 SOL · STO 2–1 SOL · SOL 3–2 STO · STO 2–1 SOL

Form · last six in Ettan - Norra

SOLLENTUNA

WLLDLL1–0 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 2–3

STOCKSUND

LWLLLD1–2 · 2–1 · 2–5 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Stockholm Internazionale	25	+40	57
2	Arlanda	25	+18	48
3	AFC Eskilstuna	25	+13	47
4	Hammarby Talang	25	+26	45
5	FBK Karlstad	25	+6	43
6	Enköping	25	−2	42
7	IF Karlstad	25	+12	41
8	Assyriska FF	25	−2	32
9	Umeå FC	25	−7	32
10	Karlberg	25	−8	32
11	Gefle IF	25	−14	30
12	Vasalund	25	−16	27
13	Sollentuna	25	−12	24
14	Piteå	25	−16	22
15	Järfälla	25	−22	19
16	Stocksund	25	−16	15

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match updates

Timeline

Pre-match prediction

Match information

The game so far

Match statistics

Players on the pitch

Line-ups

Sollentuna

Stocksund

Match statistics

Line-ups

Sollentuna

Stocksund

Head to head

Form · last six in Ettan - Norra

The table