Piteå v Sollentuna prediction · Ettan

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

Piteå 1–1 Sollentuna SOLLENTUNA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Sollentuna win~~39%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.847

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.804

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sollentuna win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Sollentuna was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 36–25–39
1′KICK-OFF Piteå v Sollentuna
9′🟨 YELLOW · 9' Piteå
12′We published Sollentuna at 39%. Our model now makes it 65%. 0–1 · 15–20–65
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Piteå 0–1 Sollentuna
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Sollentuna win: 39% at kick-off, 65% now
13′Sollentuna find the net on 12′. 0–1. 0–1 · 15–20–65
15′Sollentuna ahead on 13′ through J. Backstrom. 0–1. 0–1 · 14–20–65
20′🟨 YELLOW · 20' Piteå
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 0–1 · 12–21–67
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Sollentuna win: 39% at kick-off, 69% now
41′PENALTY MISSED · 41' Piteå
43′We published Sollentuna at 39%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–1 · 9–21–70
43′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Sollentuna
45′HALF-TIME Piteå 0–1 Sollentuna
45′SECOND HALF Piteå 0–1 Sollentuna
59′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Sollentuna
60′We published Sollentuna at 39%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 5–20–75
63′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Piteå · On: J. Bonilla · Off: Q. Hoeve
63′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Piteå · On: H. Millbert · Off: I. Wikstrom
63′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Piteå · On: S. Jamehdar · Off: H. Bergstrom
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Sollentuna win: 39% at kick-off, 79% now
70′We published Sollentuna at 39%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
72′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Piteå · On: A. Muyenga · Off: B. Brooks
72′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Sollentuna · On: K. Stregart · Off: E. Lundell
77′We published Sollentuna at 39%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 1–14–85
80′We said Sollentuna at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 1–1 · 12–75–13
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Piteå 1–1 Sollentuna
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Sollentuna win: 39% at kick-off, 13% now
80′THE CALL SWINGS · 80' Draw is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Sollentuna win 13%)
81′A goal for Piteå on 81′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 11–77–12
82′🟥 RED CARD · 82' Piteå
84′We said Sollentuna at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 8–83–9
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Sollentuna win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Piteå
88′PENALTY MISSED · 88' Sollentuna
91′We said Sollentuna at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–4
95′Full time, 1–1. We called Sollentuna at 39% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 1–1 · 0–100–0
FTFULL TIME Piteå 1–1 Sollentuna
FTPiteå 1–1 Sollentuna · Sollentuna win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Sollentuna just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Piteå 36%, draw 25%, Sollentuna 39%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Piteå v SollentunaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Piteå win36%

Draw25%

Sollentuna win39%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundNorra · matchday 27

VenueLF Arena

Line-ups

Piteå

Sollentuna

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Piteå

Sollentuna

7Days since last match9

Last match: 11 Oct · Ettan - Norra

Last match: 9 Oct · Ettan - Norra

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Sollentuna	26	−9	27
14	Piteå	26	−16	23

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Piteå

Formation not confirmed

4 T. Oostra

10 F. Johansson

14 J. Lundback

16 B. Brooks

18 J. Johnson

19 I. Wikstrom

21 H. Bergstrom

24 A. Ingemarson

25 Q. Hoeve

28 L. Jordan

31 F. Eriksson

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · T. Adell

2 · H. Millbert

6 · S. Jamehdar

7 · A. Muyenga

8 · C. Berglund

11 · J. Bonilla

23 · L. Lindgren

Sollentuna

Formation not confirmed

1 O. Franck

2 L. Johansson

6 O. Kack

7 J. Backstrom

9 K. Grauberg

11 S. Nkubiri

12 U. Aras

18 E. Lundell

19 L. Ennart

21 E. W. Marshage

27 C. Axelsson

Coach · Johan Palm

Substitutes

3 · K. Stregart

8 · E. Stenstrand

14 · F. Rosenquist

16 · N. Josefsberg

22 · A. Ajdarevic

23 · M. Jelassi

35 · V. Blumenthal

Our number · sollentuna winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

39% The market36%

Us39%

~~Market~~36%

We make Sollentuna a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Piteå v Sollentuna~~1.40 – 1.47

~~Form · last six in Ettan - Norra this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 23 v 27~~14 v 13

~~The market · Sollentuna win~~36% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sollentuna win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Piteå win	36%	38%	−2
Draw	25%	27%	−2
Sollentuna win	39%	36%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	54%	53%	+1
Both teams to score	57%	57%	0
Over 1.5 goals	78%	75%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	32%	33%	−1
Piteå or draw	61%	64%	−3
Piteå clean sheet	23%	–	–
Sollentuna clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 5.9 8.4 6.2 3.1 1 7.9 11.6 8.4 4.2 2 5.5 8.0 5.8 2.9 3 2.6 3.7 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Piteå down, Sollentuna across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,412 Ettan - Norra matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ettan - Norra matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.4% of games this season, across 212 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.78 goals a meeting; 5 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Piteå at home: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Sollentuna away: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.40 goals for Piteå, 1.47 for Sollentuna. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.78

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 9

~~Both scored~~5 of 9

~~Last meetings~~SOL 2–2 PIT · PIT 0–3 SOL · SOL 2–1 PIT · PIT 1–0 SOL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ettan - Norra this season · since 12 Sept

PITEÅ

LLWWDD0–1 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 3–3

SOLLENTUNA

LLDLLW0–1 · 2–3 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 3–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Stockholm Internazionale	27	+42	61
2	Arlanda	27	+13	48
3	Enköping	27	+1	48
4	AFC Eskilstuna	26	+11	47
5	FBK Karlstad	27	+7	46
6	Hammarby Talang	26	+25	45
7	IF Karlstad	26	+15	44
8	Assyriska FF	26	−1	35
9	Umeå FC	26	−6	35
10	Karlberg	27	−10	33
11	Gefle IF	27	−14	32
12	Vasalund	26	−16	28
13	Sollentuna	26	−9	27
14	Piteå	26	−16	23
15	Järfälla	27	−21	22
16	Stocksund	27	−21	15