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Karlberg v Vasalund

Karlberg

3–3Full time

Vasalund

Ettan - Norra · SAT 10 OCT · Stadshagens IP

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 14:35

Karlberg 3–3 Vasalund VASALUND WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Vasalund win~~39%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.886

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.811

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Vasalund win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Vasalund was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 37–23–39
1′KICK-OFF Karlberg v Vasalund
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Karlberg 1–0 Vasalund
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Karlberg 1–1 Vasalund
21′M. Dejene scores for Vasalund on 18′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 36–27–37
37′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Vasalund
45′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Karlberg
45′🟨 YELLOW · 44' P. Soelberg · Vasalund
45′🟨 YELLOW · 44' M. Dejene · Vasalund
45′HALF-TIME Karlberg 1–1 Vasalund
46′Goals are coming at about the 3.3 we expected. 1–1 · 32–35–33
46′SECOND HALF Karlberg 1–1 Vasalund
59′⚽ GOAL · 58' Karlberg 1–2 Vasalund
61′⚽ GOAL · 60' Karlberg 1–3 Vasalund
66′58′ and it is 1–2: M. Dejene on the scoresheet for Vasalund. 1–2 · 5–20–75
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Vasalund win: 39% at kick-off, 75% now
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Karlberg 1–3 Vasalund · M. Dejene
68′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Karlberg · On: V. Hall · Off: M. Jansson
71′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Vasalund
78′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Karlberg · On: A. Jamshidi · Off: H. Fernandez
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Vasalund · On: J. Lundstrom · Off: M. Nikolic
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Karlberg 2–2 Vasalund
86′Karlberg ahead on 81′ through A. Jamshidi. 2–2. 2–2 · 6–87–7
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Vasalund win: 39% at kick-off, 7% now
86′THE CALL SWINGS · 86' Draw is now our likeliest result at 87% (was Vasalund win 7%)
90′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Vasalund · On: E. Mac Callum · Off: C. Sliwo
90′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Vasalund · On: B. Bilgec · Off: M. Dejene
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Karlberg · On: A. Backman · Off: V. Steen
90′⚽ GOAL · 92' Karlberg 3–2 Vasalund
90′⚽ GOAL · 95' Karlberg 3–3 Vasalund
FTFULL TIME Karlberg 3–3 Vasalund
FTKarlberg 3–3 Vasalund · Vasalund win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Karlberg win37%

Draw23%

Vasalund win39%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 12:00

Venue · Stadshagens IP

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Karlberg

Formation not confirmed

2 F. Nieminen Eriksson

3 V. Steen

7 H. Fernandez

8 N. Negash

12 A. Sequar

16 M. Jansson

18 M. Lalic

19 A. Jemal

24 L. Sietsema

25 F. Hogberg

35 E. Bojang

Coach · Aydin Arjang

Substitutes

4 · A. Backman

5 · B. Basaric

9 · A. Jamshidi

14 · A. Fati

15 · V. Hall

21 · F. Nilsson

31 · Y. Ciber

Vasalund

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Olafsson

2 L. Kallman

5 P. Soelberg

10 M. Nikolic

11 A. Khan

12 E. Torppa

14 C. Sliwo

19 M. Dejene

21 M. Bajrovic

26 T. Westin

28 M. Ostergren

Coach · –

Substitutes

4 · M. Degerlund

8 · J. Lundstrom

9 · E. Mac Callum

15 · F. Lukic

23 · T. Gentele

24 · B. Bilgec

30 · I. Stattin

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Karlberg

Formation not confirmed

2 F. Nieminen Eriksson

3 V. Steen

7 H. Fernandez

8 N. Negash

12 A. Sequar

16 M. Jansson

18 M. Lalic

19 A. Jemal

24 L. Sietsema

25 F. Hogberg

35 E. Bojang

Coach · Aydin Arjang

Substitutes

4 · A. Backman

5 · B. Basaric

9 · A. Jamshidi

14 · A. Fati

15 · V. Hall

21 · F. Nilsson

31 · Y. Ciber

Vasalund

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Olafsson

2 L. Kallman

5 P. Soelberg

10 M. Nikolic

11 A. Khan

12 E. Torppa

14 C. Sliwo

19 M. Dejene

21 M. Bajrovic

26 T. Westin

28 M. Ostergren

Coach · –

Substitutes

4 · M. Degerlund

8 · J. Lundstrom

9 · E. Mac Callum

15 · F. Lukic

23 · T. Gentele

24 · B. Bilgec

30 · I. Stattin

Our number · vasalund winPublished 10 Oct 12:19

39% The market38%

Us39%

~~Market~~38%

We make Vasalund a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.7.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Karlberg win	37%	36%	+2
Draw	23%	26%	−3
Vasalund win	39%	38%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	64%	57%	+6
Both teams to score	65%	61%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	84%	79%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	42%	37%	+5
Karlberg or draw	61%	62%	−2
Karlberg clean sheet	19%	–	–
Vasalund clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.1%

0123450 4.0 6.2 5.2 2.9 1 6.0 10.1 8.2 4.6 2 4.9 8.0 6.6 3.7 3 2.7 4.4 3.6 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Karlberg down, Vasalund across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,401 Ettan - Norra matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ettan - Norra matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.7% of games this season, across 201 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 2.80 goals a meeting; 3 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Karlberg at home: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Vasalund away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.62 goals for Karlberg, 1.67 for Vasalund. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~VAS 0–4 KAR · KAR 0–0 VAS · VAS 2–0 KAR · KAR 3–1 VAS

Form · last six in Ettan - Norra

KARLBERG

LWLLDW0–3 · 1–0 · 0–5 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 3–2

VASALUND

LLDLWL2–3 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 1–5 · 1–0 · 1–4

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Stockholm Internazionale	25	+40	57
2	Arlanda	25	+18	48
3	AFC Eskilstuna	25	+13	47
4	Hammarby Talang	25	+26	45
5	FBK Karlstad	25	+6	43
6	Enköping	25	−2	42
7	IF Karlstad	25	+12	41
8	Assyriska FF	25	−2	32
9	Umeå FC	25	−7	32
10	Karlberg	25	−8	32
11	Gefle IF	25	−14	30
12	Sollentuna	26	−9	27
13	Vasalund	25	−16	27
14	Piteå	25	−16	22
15	Järfälla	25	−22	19
16	Stocksund	26	−19	15