Karlberg v Umeå FC prediction · Ettan

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

KarlbergDrawUmeå FC

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Umeå FC 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Umeå FC are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Karlberg 35%, draw 24%, Umeå FC 41%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Karlberg v Umeå FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Karlberg win35%

Draw24%

Umeå FC win41%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 14:00

RoundNorra · matchday 28

VenueStadshagens IP

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Karlberg

Umeå FC

8Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Ettan - Norra

Last match: 18 Oct · Ettan - Norra

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Umeå FC	27	−4	38
11	Karlberg	27	−10	33

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · umeå fc winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Umeå FC a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Karlberg v Umeå FC~~1.48 – 1.61

~~Form · last six in Ettan - Norra this season · since 16 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 33 v 38~~11 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Karlberg win	35%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Umeå FC win	41%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	59%	–	–
Both teams to score	61%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	81%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	37%	–	–
Karlberg or draw	59%	–	–
Karlberg clean sheet	20%	–	–
Umeå FC clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%

0123450 4.8 7.4 5.9 3.2 1 6.8 10.8 8.5 4.6 2 5.0 7.9 6.3 3.4 3 2.5 3.9 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Karlberg down, Umeå FC across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,420 Ettan - Norra matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ettan - Norra matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.5% of games this season, across 220 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.67 goals a meeting; 3 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Karlberg at home: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Umeå FC away: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.48 goals for Karlberg, 1.61 for Umeå FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.67

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 3

~~Both scored~~3 of 3

~~Last meetings~~UME 2–1 KAR · KAR 2–2 UME · UME 3–1 KAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ettan - Norra this season · since 16 Sept

KARLBERG

LLDWDL0–5 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 3–3 · 1–3

UMEÅ FC

WWLWWW2–0 · 3–0 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 3–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Stockholm Internazionale	28	+45	64
2	AFC Eskilstuna	27	+15	50
3	Hammarby Talang	28	+26	49
4	Arlanda	27	+13	48
5	Enköping	27	+1	48
6	FBK Karlstad	28	+6	46
7	IF Karlstad	28	+11	44
8	Umeå FC	27	−4	38
9	Assyriska FF	27	−3	35
10	Gefle IF	28	−13	35
11	Karlberg	27	−10	33
12	Sollentuna	28	−7	31
13	Vasalund	28	−22	28
14	Piteå	27	−16	24
15	Järfälla	28	−21	23
16	Stocksund	27	−21	15