Järfälla v Umeå FC prediction · Ettan

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Järfälla 1–2 Umeå FC UMEÅ FC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Umeå FC win~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.398

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 34 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Umeå FC win at 49%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Umeå FC 49% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 29–23–49
4′3′ and it is 0–1: Umeå FC have scored. 0–1 · 13–16–71
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Umeå FC win: 49% at kick-off, 71% now
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 16' Umeå FC win: 49% at kick-off, 49% now
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Umeå FC win: 49% at kick-off, 71% now
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Umeå FC win: 49% at kick-off, 49% now
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Umeå FC win: 49% at kick-off, 71% now
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Umeå FC win: 49% at kick-off, 49% now
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Umeå FC win: 49% at kick-off, 71% now
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Umeå FC win: 49% at kick-off, 49% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Umeå FC win: 49% at kick-off, 49% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Umeå FC win: 49% at kick-off, 71% now
23′3′ and it is 0–1: Umeå FC have scored. 0–1 · 11–17–72
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Umeå FC win: 49% at kick-off, 49% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Umeå FC win: 49% at kick-off, 71% now
25′We said Umeå FC at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 72%. 0–1 · 10–18–72
25′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Umeå FC
41′Umeå FC find the net on 40′. 0–2. 0–2 · 2–6–92
41′⚽ GOAL · 40' Järfälla 0–2 Umeå FC
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Umeå FC win: 49% at kick-off, 92% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Umeå FC win: 49% at kick-off, 72% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Umeå FC win: 49% at kick-off, 72% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Umeå FC win: 49% at kick-off, 92% now
43′Umeå FC find the net on 40′. 0–2. 0–2 · 2–6–92
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Umeå FC win: 49% at kick-off, 72% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Umeå FC win: 49% at kick-off, 92% now
45′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Järfälla
45′HALF-TIME Järfälla 0–2 Umeå FC
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Umeå FC win: 49% at kick-off, 92% now
46′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Järfälla
46′SECOND HALF Järfälla 0–2 Umeå FC
51′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Järfälla
53′⚽ GOAL · 3' Järfälla 0–2 Umeå FC
53′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Umeå FC
53′⚽ GOAL · 40' Järfälla 0–2 Umeå FC
53′SUBSTITUTION · 42' Umeå FC · On: I. Johansson · Off: M. Njie
53′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Järfälla
53′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Järfälla
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Järfälla 1–2 Umeå FC
FTFULL TIME Järfälla 1–2 Umeå FC
FTJärfälla 1–2 Umeå FC · Umeå FC win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Järfälla win29%

Draw22%

Umeå FC win49%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

VenueJarfallavallen

Line-ups

Järfälla

Umeå FC

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Järfälla

Umeå FC

8Days since last match7

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Umeå FC	25	−7	32
15	Järfälla	25	−22	19

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Järfälla

Formation not confirmed

3 N. Akdemir

4 Y. Aksoy

8 N. Medhin T

9 A. Wurtz

17 A. Khalil

20 E. Drugge

22 O. Moller

23 C. F. Danha

26 D. Dibaga

28 A. Abdulle

30 E. von Feilitzen

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · B. Eide

6 · P. Saweris

7 · C. Fox

12 · D. Markovski

15 · H. Tinnborg

16 · A. Sabery

19 · K. Dahir

Umeå FC

Formation not confirmed

1 P. Eriksson

2 N. Linden

3 R. Andersson

7 A. Sandstrom

8 F. Godwin

16 Z. Bawa

17 S. Forsman

19 A. Shakir

25 M. Njie

26 D. Ekman

33 J. Essombe Mambingo

Coach · –

Substitutes

35 · L. Pihlblad

5 · N. Hakansson

9 · R. Hadad

12 · E. Yeboah

15 · S. Wagnsson

22 · T. Lindgren

23 · I. Johansson

Our number · umeå fc winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

49% The market–

Us49%

We make Umeå FC a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Järfälla win	29%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Umeå FC win	49%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	64%	–	–
Both teams to score	64%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	42%	–	–
Järfälla or draw	51%	–	–
Järfälla clean sheet	15%	–	–
Umeå FC clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.8%

0123450 3.9 6.8 6.5 4.1 2.0 1 5.1 9.8 9.0 5.7 2.8 2 3.7 6.8 6.4 4.1 3 3.3 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Järfälla down, Umeå FC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,404 Ettan - Norra matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ettan - Norra matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.3% of games this season, across 204 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Järfälla at home: 1.33 scored, 2.83 conceded a game (last 6). Umeå FC away: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for Järfälla, 1.90 for Umeå FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~UME 1–3 JAR

Form · last six in Ettan - Norra

JÄRFÄLLA

LLWLLD0–3 · 1–3 · 5–0 · 1–3 · 2–4 · 1–1

UMEÅ FC

WLWWLW2–1 · 0–4 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 1–3 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Stockholm Internazionale	26	+42	60
2	Arlanda	26	+15	48
3	AFC Eskilstuna	26	+11	47
4	Hammarby Talang	25	+26	45
5	IF Karlstad	26	+15	44
6	FBK Karlstad	25	+6	43
7	Enköping	25	−2	42
8	Karlberg	26	−8	33
9	Assyriska FF	25	−2	32
10	Umeå FC	25	−7	32
11	Gefle IF	25	−14	30
12	Vasalund	26	−16	28
13	Sollentuna	26	−9	27
14	Piteå	25	−16	22
15	Järfälla	25	−22	19
16	Stocksund	26	−19	15