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Järfälla v Hammarby Talang

Järfälla
2–2Full time
Hammarby Talang

Ettan - Norra · FRI 23 OCT · Jarfallavallen

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 21:06
Järfälla 2–2 Hammarby Talang HAMMARBY TALANG WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Hammarby Talang win62%
The market said68%
Brier score, this match · lower is better1.055
The market’s Brier score1.147

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 22 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Hammarby Talang win at 62%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Hammarby Talang 62% before kick-off, 62% now. 0–0 · 18–20–62
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Järfälla v Hammarby Talang
  4. 36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Hammarby Talang win: 62% at kick-off, 52% now
  5. 41′We said Hammarby Talang at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 50%. 0–0 · 18–31–50
  6. 43′We said Hammarby Talang at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 18–32–49
  7. 45′HALF-TIME Järfälla 0–0 Hammarby Talang
  8. 46′SECOND HALF Järfälla 0–0 Hammarby Talang
  9. 54′We said Hammarby Talang at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 17–39–44
  10. 54′Hammarby Talang find the net on 54′. 0–1. 0–1 · 3–14–83
  11. 54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Järfälla 0–1 Hammarby Talang
  12. 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Hammarby Talang win: 62% at kick-off, 83% now
  13. 55′We said Hammarby Talang at 62% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 83%. 0–1 · 3–14–83
  14. 61′A goal for Järfälla on 61′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 16–44–39
  15. 61′We said Hammarby Talang at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 16–44–39
  16. 61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Järfälla 1–1 Hammarby Talang
  17. 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Hammarby Talang win: 62% at kick-off, 39% now
  18. 61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Hammarby Talang win 83%)
  19. 62′The goal count is tracking the 3.2 we expected. 1–1 · 16–45–39
  20. 65′Järfälla score on 65′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 64–27–10
  21. 65′We said Hammarby Talang at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 10%. 2–1 · 64–27–10
  22. 65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Järfälla 2–1 Hammarby Talang
  23. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Hammarby Talang win: 62% at kick-off, 10% now
  24. 65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Järfälla win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Draw 48%)
  25. 65′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Järfälla
  26. 66′We said Hammarby Talang at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 2–1 · 65–26–9
  27. 75′We said Hammarby Talang at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–1 · 74–22–4
  28. 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Hammarby Talang win: 62% at kick-off, 2% now
  29. 82′Hammarby Talang find the net on 82′. 2–2. 2–2 · 8–76–16
  30. 82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Järfälla 2–2 Hammarby Talang
  31. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Hammarby Talang win: 62% at kick-off, 16% now
  32. 82′THE CALL SWINGS · 82' Draw is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Järfälla win 84%)
  33. 83′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 7–79–14
  34. 85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Hammarby Talang win: 62% at kick-off, 12% now
  35. 92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Järfälla
  36. 94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+4' Hammarby Talang win: 62% at kick-off, 2% now
  37. 94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Järfälla
  38. FTFULL TIME Järfälla 2–2 Hammarby Talang
  39. FTJärfälla 2–2 Hammarby Talang · Hammarby Talang win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Hammarby Talang are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Järfälla 18%, draw 20%, Hammarby Talang 62%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Järfälla v Hammarby TalangBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Järfälla win18%
Draw20%
Hammarby Talang win62%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 18:30

RoundNorra · matchday 28

VenueJarfallavallen

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Järfälla

Hammarby Talang

6Days since last match5

Last match: 17 Oct · Ettan - Norra

Last match: 18 Oct · Ettan - Norra

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
3Hammarby Talang27+2648
15Järfälla27−2122

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hammarby talang winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 18 Oct 00:21 · locked at kick-off
62% The market68%
Us62%
Market68%

We make Hammarby Talang a 62% chance to win. The market has them at 68%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–2.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Järfälla v Hammarby Talang1.08 – 2.17
Form · last six in Ettan - Norra this season · since 17 SeptW2 D1 L3 · W2 D1 L3
Table places · points 22 v 4815 v 3
The market · Hammarby Talang win68% · ours 62%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
55%60%65%70% 17 OCT 00:0123 OCT 18:18
Our probability · Hammarby Talang win The market, margin stripped

Published at 63%, 62% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 68% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Järfälla win18%14%+4
Draw20%18%+2
Hammarby Talang win62%68%−6
Over 2.5 goals63%67%−4
Both teams to score58%58%0
Over 1.5 goals83%84%−1
Over 3.5 goals41%47%−6
Järfälla or draw38%32%+6
Järfälla clean sheet12%––
Hammarby Talang clean sheet34%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 9.6%
0123450 4.2 8.5 9.1 6.6 3.6 1 4.2 9.1 9.6 6.9 3.8 2 2.3 4.9 5.2 3.7 2.0 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Järfälla down, Hammarby Talang across0–5 goals a side shown (97.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021
Goals a meeting2.00
Over 2.50 of 1
Both scored1 of 1
Last meetingsHAM 1–1 JAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ettan - Norra this season · since 17 Sept

JÄRFÄLLA

WLLDLW5–0 · 1–3 · 2–4 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 3–1

HAMMARBY TALANG

DLWLLW0–0 · 2–4 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 2–1

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Stockholm Internazionale27+4261
2AFC Eskilstuna27+1550
3Hammarby Talang27+2648
4Arlanda27+1348
5Enköping27+148
6FBK Karlstad27+746
7IF Karlstad27+1444
8Umeå FC27−438
9Assyriska FF27−335
10Karlberg27−1033
11Gefle IF27−1432
12Sollentuna27−928
13Vasalund27−2028
14Piteå27−1624
15Järfälla27−2122
16Stocksund27−2115

The competition's standings before kick-off.