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Järfälla v Hammarby Talang
Järfälla
Hammarby TalangEttan - Norra · FRI 23 OCT · Jarfallavallen
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Hammarby Talang win at 62%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Hammarby Talang 62% before kick-off, 62% now. 0–0 · 18–20–62
- 1′KICK-OFF Järfälla v Hammarby Talang
- 36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Hammarby Talang win: 62% at kick-off, 52% now
- 41′We said Hammarby Talang at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 50%. 0–0 · 18–31–50
- 43′We said Hammarby Talang at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 18–32–49
- 45′HALF-TIME Järfälla 0–0 Hammarby Talang
- 46′SECOND HALF Järfälla 0–0 Hammarby Talang
- 54′We said Hammarby Talang at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 17–39–44
- 54′Hammarby Talang find the net on 54′. 0–1. 0–1 · 3–14–83
- 54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Järfälla 0–1 Hammarby Talang
- 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Hammarby Talang win: 62% at kick-off, 83% now
- 55′We said Hammarby Talang at 62% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 83%. 0–1 · 3–14–83
- 61′A goal for Järfälla on 61′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 16–44–39
- 61′We said Hammarby Talang at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 16–44–39
- 61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Järfälla 1–1 Hammarby Talang
- 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Hammarby Talang win: 62% at kick-off, 39% now
- 61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Hammarby Talang win 83%)
- 62′The goal count is tracking the 3.2 we expected. 1–1 · 16–45–39
- 65′Järfälla score on 65′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 64–27–10
- 65′We said Hammarby Talang at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 10%. 2–1 · 64–27–10
- 65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Järfälla 2–1 Hammarby Talang
- 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Hammarby Talang win: 62% at kick-off, 10% now
- 65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Järfälla win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Draw 48%)
- 65′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Järfälla
- 66′We said Hammarby Talang at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 2–1 · 65–26–9
- 75′We said Hammarby Talang at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–1 · 74–22–4
- 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Hammarby Talang win: 62% at kick-off, 2% now
- 82′Hammarby Talang find the net on 82′. 2–2. 2–2 · 8–76–16
- 82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Järfälla 2–2 Hammarby Talang
- 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Hammarby Talang win: 62% at kick-off, 16% now
- 82′THE CALL SWINGS · 82' Draw is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Järfälla win 84%)
- 83′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 7–79–14
- 85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Hammarby Talang win: 62% at kick-off, 12% now
- 92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Järfälla
- 94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+4' Hammarby Talang win: 62% at kick-off, 2% now
- 94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Järfälla
- FTFULL TIME Järfälla 2–2 Hammarby Talang
- FTJärfälla 2–2 Hammarby Talang · Hammarby Talang win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–2 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Hammarby Talang are clear favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Järfälla 18%, draw 20%, Hammarby Talang 62%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 58%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
Järfälla win18%
Hammarby Talang win62%Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 18:30
RoundNorra · matchday 28
VenueJarfallavallen
Match timeline
All events
JärfällaMIN
Hammarby TalangEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Järfälla
Hammarby Talang
Last match: 17 Oct · Ettan - Norra
Last match: 18 Oct · Ettan - Norra
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Hammarby Talang a 62% chance to win. The market has them at 68%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–2.2.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 63%, 62% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 68% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Järfälla win | 18% | 14% | +4 |
| Draw | 20% | 18% | +2 |
| Hammarby Talang win | 62% | 68% | −6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 67% | −4 |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 58% | 0 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | 84% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | 47% | −6 |
| Järfälla or draw | 38% | 32% | +6 |
| Järfälla clean sheet | 12% | – | – |
| Hammarby Talang clean sheet | 34% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
1 meeting since 2021Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Ettan - Norra this season · since 17 Sept
JÄRFÄLLA
HAMMARBY TALANG
The table
2026| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stockholm Internazionale | 27 | +42 | 61 |
| 2 | AFC Eskilstuna | 27 | +15 | 50 |
| 3 | Hammarby Talang | 27 | +26 | 48 |
| 4 | Arlanda | 27 | +13 | 48 |
| 5 | Enköping | 27 | +1 | 48 |
| 6 | FBK Karlstad | 27 | +7 | 46 |
| 7 | IF Karlstad | 27 | +14 | 44 |
| 8 | Umeå FC | 27 | −4 | 38 |
| 9 | Assyriska FF | 27 | −3 | 35 |
| 10 | Karlberg | 27 | −10 | 33 |
| 11 | Gefle IF | 27 | −14 | 32 |
| 12 | Sollentuna | 27 | −9 | 28 |
| 13 | Vasalund | 27 | −20 | 28 |
| 14 | Piteå | 27 | −16 | 24 |
| 15 | Järfälla | 27 | −21 | 22 |
| 16 | Stocksund | 27 | −21 | 15 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Stockholm Internazionale
AFC Eskilstuna
Arlanda
Enköping
FBK Karlstad
IF Karlstad
Umeå FC
Assyriska FF
Karlberg
Gefle IF
Sollentuna
Vasalund
Piteå
Stocksund