Home › Football › Ettan - Norra › IF Karlstad v Stockholm Internazionale

IF Karlstad v Stockholm Internazionale

IF Karlstad

1–4Full time

Stockholm Internazionale

Ettan - Norra · SAT 24 OCT · Sola Arena

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

IF Karlstad 1–4 Stockholm Internazionale STOCKHOLM INTERNAZIONALE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Stockholm Internazionale win~~49%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.388

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.533

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Stockholm Internazionale win at 49%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Stockholm Internazionale 49% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 25–26–49
1′KICK-OFF IF Karlstad v Stockholm Internazionale
12′Stockholm Internazionale score on 11′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 9–16–75
12′We said Stockholm Internazionale at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 9–16–75
12′⚽ GOAL · 11' IF Karlstad 0–1 Stockholm Internazionale
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Stockholm Internazionale win: 49% at kick-off, 75% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 7–17–76
45′HALF-TIME IF Karlstad 0–1 Stockholm Internazionale
46′SECOND HALF IF Karlstad 0–1 Stockholm Internazionale
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Stockholm Internazionale win: 49% at kick-off, 79% now
54′We said Stockholm Internazionale at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 4–17–80
56′Stockholm Internazionale find the net on 56′. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–3–96
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' IF Karlstad 0–2 Stockholm Internazionale
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Stockholm Internazionale win: 49% at kick-off, 96% now
57′We said Stockholm Internazionale at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 0–2 · 0–3–97
58′A goal for IF Karlstad on 57′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 3–16–81
58′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 3–16–81
58′⚽ GOAL · 57' IF Karlstad 1–2 Stockholm Internazionale
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Stockholm Internazionale win: 49% at kick-off, 81% now
62′SUBSTITUTION · 59' IF Karlstad · On: D. Nfansu · Off: I. Hook
65′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Stockholm Internazionale
70′We said Stockholm Internazionale at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–2 · 2–13–85
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Stockholm Internazionale win: 49% at kick-off, 89% now
79′We said Stockholm Internazionale at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–2 · 1–9–90
79′Stockholm Internazionale score on 79′ to make it 1–3. 1–3 · 0–1–99
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' IF Karlstad 1–3 Stockholm Internazionale
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Stockholm Internazionale win: 49% at kick-off, 99% now
80′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–1–99
80′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Stockholm Internazionale · On: D. Tokpah · Off: C. Weilid
80′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Stockholm Internazionale · On: M. Canoilas · Off: O. Leonardsson
80′SUBSTITUTION · 74' IF Karlstad · On: W. Miguel · Off: K. Gustafsson
80′SUBSTITUTION · 59' IF Karlstad · On: J. Carstrom · Off: B. Tagoe
80′SUBSTITUTION · 71' IF Karlstad · On: K. Kack Ofordu · Off: A. Bark
81′We said Stockholm Internazionale at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
88′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Stockholm Internazionale · On: M. Cosic · Off: S. Conta
88′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Stockholm Internazionale · On: M. K. Kantokoski · Off: O. Salama
92′Stockholm Internazionale find the net on 90′. 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' IF Karlstad 1–4 Stockholm Internazionale
93′5 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 1–4 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME IF Karlstad 1–4 Stockholm Internazionale
FTIF Karlstad 1–4 Stockholm Internazionale · Stockholm Internazionale win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Stockholm Internazionale are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: IF Karlstad 25%, draw 26%, Stockholm Internazionale 49%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on IF Karlstad v Stockholm InternazionaleBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

IF Karlstad win25%

Draw26%

Stockholm Internazionale win49%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundNorra · matchday 28

VenueSola Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

IF Karlstad

Stockholm Internazionale

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Ettan - Norra

Last match: 17 Oct · Ettan - Norra

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · stockholm internazionale winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

49% The market40%

Us49%

~~Market~~40%

We make Stockholm Internazionale a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · IF Karlstad v Stockholm Internazionale~~1.03 – 1.55

~~Form · last six in Ettan - Norra this season · since 16 Sept~~W1 D4 L1 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 44 v 61~~7 v 1

~~The market · Stockholm Internazionale win~~40% · ours 49%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Stockholm Internazionale win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
IF Karlstad win	25%	32%	−7
Draw	26%	27%	−1
Stockholm Internazionale win	49%	40%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	48%	51%	−3
Both teams to score	50%	56%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	73%	74%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	26%	30%	−4
IF Karlstad or draw	51%	60%	−9
IF Karlstad clean sheet	22%	–	–
Stockholm Internazionale clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 7.9 11.7 9.0 4.7 1 7.8 12.0 9.1 4.8 2 4.1 6.1 4.7 2.5 3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+IF Karlstad down, Stockholm Internazionale across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,417 Ettan - Norra matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ettan - Norra matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.8% of games this season, across 217 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 1.89 goals a meeting; 2 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

IF Karlstad at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Stockholm Internazionale away: 2.33 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.03 goals for IF Karlstad, 1.55 for Stockholm Internazionale. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.89

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 9

~~Both scored~~3 of 9

~~Last meetings~~STO 0–1 IFK · STO 0–1 IFK · IFK 0–1 STO · STO 1–0 IFK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ettan - Norra this season · since 16 Sept

IF KARLSTAD

DDDDWL0–0 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 1–2

STOCKHOLM INTERNAZIONALE

WWWWWD5–2 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 3–1 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Stockholm Internazionale	27	+42	61
2	AFC Eskilstuna	27	+15	50
3	Hammarby Talang	28	+26	49
4	Arlanda	27	+13	48
5	Enköping	27	+1	48
6	FBK Karlstad	27	+7	46
7	IF Karlstad	27	+14	44
8	Umeå FC	27	−4	38
9	Assyriska FF	27	−3	35
10	Karlberg	27	−10	33
11	Gefle IF	27	−14	32
12	Sollentuna	27	−9	28
13	Vasalund	27	−20	28
14	Piteå	27	−16	24
15	Järfälla	28	−21	23
16	Stocksund	27	−21	15