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IF Karlstad v Arlanda

IF Karlstad

3–0Full time

Arlanda

Ettan - Norra · SAT 10 OCT · Sola Arena

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

IF Karlstad 3–0 Arlanda IF KARLSTAD WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said IF Karlstad win~~41%

~~The market said~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.518

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.350

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said IF Karlstad win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: IF Karlstad 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–25–33
1′KICK-OFF IF Karlstad v Arlanda
45′⚽ GOAL · 44' IF Karlstad 1–0 Arlanda
45′HALF-TIME IF Karlstad 1–0 Arlanda
47′🟨 YELLOW · 44' K. Gustafsson · IF Karlstad
47′SECOND HALF IF Karlstad 1–0 Arlanda
51′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Arlanda · On: M. Ahmed · Off: J. Drugge
51′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Arlanda · On: A. Hansen · Off: A. Saeed
72′SUBSTITUTION · 67' IF Karlstad · On: W. Miguel · Off: A. Bark
78′SUBSTITUTION · 67' IF Karlstad · On: K. Kack Ofordu · Off: O. Alvers
78′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Arlanda · On: O. Bergstedt · Off: Y. Yemane
79′⚽ GOAL · 78' IF Karlstad 2–0 Arlanda
86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' IF Karlstad
87′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Arlanda · On: L. Nyman · Off: M. Butros
87′🟨 YELLOW · 86' IF Karlstad
90′⚽ GOAL · 92' IF Karlstad 3–0 Arlanda
FTFULL TIME IF Karlstad 3–0 Arlanda
FTIF Karlstad 3–0 Arlanda · IF Karlstad win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

IF Karlstad win41%

Draw25%

Arlanda win33%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Sola Arena

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

IF Karlstad

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Karlsson

6 S. Zurmati

7 H. Bellman

8 A. Bark

10 O. Alvers

11 J. Bengtsson

14 I. Hook

17 N. Jatta

19 E. Nilsson King

21 K. Gustafsson

26 B. Tagoe

Coach · –

Substitutes

2 · S. Beko

12 · W. Miguel

16 · F. Modou

20 · N. Andersson Gards

22 · K. Kack Ofordu

24 · D. Nfansu

27 · T. Kocys

Arlanda

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Smedberg Lagh

2 C. Norberg

3 H. Fredricson

8 Y. Yemane

15 I. Antholm

16 J. Drugge

19 S. Rydz

21 L. Kleist

22 M. Butros

24 A. Saeed

27 E. Johansson

Coach · –

Substitutes

5 · O. Bergstedt

11 · M. Ahmed

12 · L. Nyman

14 · A. Hansen

18 · J. Carlsson

25 · R. Koroma

30 · A. Karo

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

IF Karlstad

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Karlsson

6 S. Zurmati

7 H. Bellman

8 A. Bark

10 O. Alvers

11 J. Bengtsson

14 I. Hook

17 N. Jatta

19 E. Nilsson King

21 K. Gustafsson

26 B. Tagoe

Coach · –

Substitutes

2 · S. Beko

12 · W. Miguel

16 · F. Modou

20 · N. Andersson Gards

22 · K. Kack Ofordu

24 · D. Nfansu

27 · T. Kocys

Arlanda

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Smedberg Lagh

2 C. Norberg

3 H. Fredricson

8 Y. Yemane

15 I. Antholm

16 J. Drugge

19 S. Rydz

21 L. Kleist

22 M. Butros

24 A. Saeed

27 E. Johansson

Coach · –

Substitutes

5 · O. Bergstedt

11 · M. Ahmed

12 · L. Nyman

14 · A. Hansen

18 · J. Carlsson

25 · R. Koroma

30 · A. Karo

Our number · if karlstad winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

41% The market52%

Us41%

~~Market~~52%

We make IF Karlstad a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · if karlstad win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 53% to 52% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
IF Karlstad win	41%	52%	−10
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Arlanda win	33%	22%	+11
Over 2.5 goals	54%	56%	−2
Both teams to score	57%	57%	0
Over 1.5 goals	77%	78%	0
Over 3.5 goals	32%	35%	−3
IF Karlstad or draw	67%	78%	−11
IF Karlstad clean sheet	27%	–	–
Arlanda clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 6.2 7.7 5.2 2.3 1 8.7 11.7 7.7 3.4 2 6.7 8.7 5.7 2.6 3 3.4 4.4 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+IF Karlstad down, Arlanda across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,401 Ettan - Norra matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ettan - Norra matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.7% of games this season, across 201 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

IF Karlstad at home: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Arlanda away: 1.83 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.51 goals for IF Karlstad, 1.33 for Arlanda. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~ARL 1–0 IFK · ARL 3–5 IFK · IFK 3–0 ARL

Form · last six in Ettan - Norra

IF KARLSTAD

LLDDDD1–2 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–1

ARLANDA

LLWWWW1–2 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 4–2 · 2–0 · 4–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Stockholm Internazionale	25	+40	57
2	Arlanda	25	+18	48
3	AFC Eskilstuna	25	+13	47
4	Hammarby Talang	25	+26	45
5	FBK Karlstad	25	+6	43
6	Enköping	25	−2	42
7	IF Karlstad	25	+12	41
8	Assyriska FF	25	−2	32
9	Umeå FC	25	−7	32
10	Karlberg	25	−8	32
11	Gefle IF	25	−14	30
12	Sollentuna	26	−9	27
13	Vasalund	25	−16	27
14	Piteå	25	−16	22
15	Järfälla	25	−22	19
16	Stocksund	26	−19	15