Hammarby Talang v IF Karlstad prediction · Ettan

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:02

Hammarby Talang 2–1 IF Karlstad HAMMARBY TALANG WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hammarby Talang win~~46%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.442

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.483

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hammarby Talang win at 46%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Hammarby Talang 46% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–26–29
2′KICK-OFF Hammarby Talang v IF Karlstad
18′🟨 YELLOW · 17' IF Karlstad
40′IF Karlstad score on 40′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 13–25–62
40′We said Hammarby Talang at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 0–1 · 13–25–62
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Hammarby Talang 0–1 IF Karlstad
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Hammarby Talang win: 46% at kick-off, 13% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' IF Karlstad win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Hammarby Talang win 13%)
41′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 13–25–63
44′39′: O. Alvers on the scoresheet for IF Karlstad, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 12–25–64
45′HALF-TIME Hammarby Talang 0–1 IF Karlstad
46′SECOND HALF Hammarby Talang 0–1 IF Karlstad
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Hammarby Talang · On: W. Gibson · Off: L. Krasniqi
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Hammarby Talang · On: A. Johansson · Off: G. Hana
51′We said Hammarby Talang at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–66
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Hammarby Talang win: 46% at kick-off, 6% now
64′Hammarby Talang find the net on 63′. 1–1. 1–1 · 27–54–19
64′We said Hammarby Talang at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 1–1 · 27–54–19
64′⚽ GOAL · 63' Hammarby Talang 1–1 IF Karlstad
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Hammarby Talang win: 46% at kick-off, 27% now
64′THE CALL SWINGS · 64' Draw is now our likeliest result at 54% (was IF Karlstad win 19%)
65′SUBSTITUTION · 61' IF Karlstad · On: K. Kack Ofordu · Off: D. Nfansu
66′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Hammarby Talang
68′We said Hammarby Talang at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–58–18
74′SUBSTITUTION · 70' IF Karlstad · On: S. Beko · Off: S. Zurmati
74′SUBSTITUTION · 70' IF Karlstad · On: J. Carstrom · Off: B. Tagoe
74′🟨 YELLOW · 74' IF Karlstad
75′We said Hammarby Talang at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–68–14
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Hammarby Talang win: 46% at kick-off, 16% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Hammarby Talang win: 46% at kick-off, 6% now
91′We said Hammarby Talang at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
92′A goal for Hammarby Talang on 90′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 98–2–0
92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Hammarby Talang 2–1 IF Karlstad
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+2' Hammarby Talang win: 46% at kick-off, 98% now
92′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+2' Hammarby Talang win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 2%)
93′We said Hammarby Talang at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 2–1 · 98–2–0
93′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 98–2–0
95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' Hammarby Talang
97′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' G. Elezaj · Hammarby Talang
99′SUBSTITUTION · 90+5' Hammarby Talang · On: O. Corlin · Off: G. Elezaj
100′SUBSTITUTION · 90+5' Hammarby Talang · On: A. Lohake · Off: S. Moses
FTFULL TIME Hammarby Talang 2–1 IF Karlstad
FTHammarby Talang 2–1 IF Karlstad · Hammarby Talang win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Hammarby Talang are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hammarby Talang 46%, draw 26%, IF Karlstad 29%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Hammarby Talang v IF KarlstadBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Hammarby Talang win46%

Draw26%

IF Karlstad win29%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 15:00

RoundNorra · matchday 27

VenueHammarby IP

Line-ups

Hammarby Talang

IF Karlstad

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hammarby Talang

IF Karlstad

7Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · Ettan - Norra

Last match: 10 Oct · Ettan - Norra

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Hammarby Talang	26	+25	45
7	IF Karlstad	26	+15	44

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Hammarby Talang

Formation not confirmed

1 E. Opancar

3 J. Lindahl

4 C. Eklund

5 R. Dwomoh

6 S. Moses

10 G. Hana

14 L. Krasniqi

16 G. Elezaj

19 G. Andren

23 N. Ek

28 I. Musa

Coach · –

Substitutes

11 · A. Johansson

13 · A. Camara

15 · W. Gibson

17 · O. Corlin

20 · A. Lohake

35 · G. Nyberg

IF Karlstad

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Karlsson

6 S. Zurmati

7 H. Bellman

8 A. Bark

10 O. Alvers

11 J. Bengtsson

14 I. Hook

17 N. Jatta

19 E. Nilsson King

24 D. Nfansu

26 B. Tagoe

Coach · –

Substitutes

2 · S. Beko

9 · J. Carstrom

16 · F. Modou

20 · N. Andersson Gards

22 · K. Kack Ofordu

27 · T. Kocys

Our number · hammarby talang winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

46% The market43%

Us46%

~~Market~~43%

We make Hammarby Talang a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hammarby Talang v IF Karlstad~~1.50 – 1.13

~~Form · last six in Ettan - Norra this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D4 L1

~~Table places · points 45 v 44~~6 v 7

~~The market · Hammarby Talang win~~43% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Hammarby Talang win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hammarby Talang win	46%	43%	+3
Draw	26%	28%	−2
IF Karlstad win	29%	29%	0
Over 2.5 goals	49%	50%	−1
Both teams to score	52%	55%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	74%	74%	0
Over 3.5 goals	27%	30%	−3
Hammarby Talang or draw	71%	71%	0
Hammarby Talang clean sheet	33%	–	–
IF Karlstad clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 7.5 8.1 4.6 1 10.8 12.1 6.8 2.6 2 8.1 9.0 5.1 3 4.1 4.5 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hammarby Talang down, IF Karlstad across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,412 Ettan - Norra matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ettan - Norra matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.4% of games this season, across 212 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hammarby Talang at home: 0.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). IF Karlstad away: 1.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for Hammarby Talang, 1.13 for IF Karlstad. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~IFK 0–2 HAM · IFK 1–2 HAM · HAM 3–1 IFK · HAM 1–1 IFK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ettan - Norra this season · since 12 Sept

HAMMARBY TALANG

WDLWLL1–0 · 0–0 · 2–4 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 0–1

IF KARLSTAD

LDDDDW1–2 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 3–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Stockholm Internazionale	27	+42	61
2	Arlanda	27	+13	48
3	Enköping	27	+1	48
4	AFC Eskilstuna	26	+11	47
5	FBK Karlstad	27	+7	46
6	Hammarby Talang	26	+25	45
7	IF Karlstad	26	+15	44
8	Assyriska FF	26	−1	35
9	Umeå FC	26	−6	35
10	Karlberg	27	−10	33
11	Gefle IF	27	−14	32
12	Vasalund	26	−16	28
13	Sollentuna	26	−9	27
14	Piteå	26	−16	23
15	Järfälla	27	−21	22
16	Stocksund	27	−21	15