Gefle IF v Piteå prediction · Ettan - Norra

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Gefle IF 3–3 Piteå GEFLE IF WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Gefle IF win~~44%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.836

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.863

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Gefle IF win at 44%.
1′KICK-OFF Gefle IF v Piteå
3′Little has changed for our model: Gefle IF 44% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–26–30
6′Little has changed for our model: Gefle IF 44% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–27–30
8′⚽ GOAL · 7' Gefle IF 1–0 Piteå
9′⚽ GOAL · 7' Gefle IF 1–0 Piteå
20′Gefle IF ahead on 8′ through M. Mokede. 1–0. 1–0 · 71–19–10
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Gefle IF win: 44% at kick-off, 71% now
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Gefle IF win: 44% at kick-off, 43% now
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Gefle IF win: 44% at kick-off, 43% now
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Gefle IF win: 44% at kick-off, 71% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Gefle IF win: 44% at kick-off, 43% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Gefle IF win: 44% at kick-off, 71% now
23′Gefle IF ahead on 8′ through M. Mokede. 1–0. 1–0 · 71–19–10
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Gefle IF win: 44% at kick-off, 43% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Gefle IF win: 44% at kick-off, 71% now
38′We said Gefle IF at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 73%. 1–0 · 73–20–8
39′We said Gefle IF at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 73%. 1–0 · 73–20–8
45′HALF-TIME Gefle IF 1–0 Piteå
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Gefle IF win: 44% at kick-off, 73% now
46′⚽ GOAL · 8' Gefle IF 1–0 Piteå · M. Mokede (assist K. Persson)
46′SECOND HALF Gefle IF 1–0 Piteå
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Gefle IF 1–1 Piteå
61′⚽ GOAL · 60' Gefle IF 2–1 Piteå
65′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Gefle IF · On: A. Sipic · Off: M. Spangberg
65′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Piteå
68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Piteå
76′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Piteå · On: J. Bonilla · Off: H. Bergstrom
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Gefle IF 2–2 Piteå
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Gefle IF 2–3 Piteå
89′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Gefle IF · On: Y. Sugita · Off: A. Zahirovic
89′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Gefle IF · On: N. Lundstrom · Off: K. Persson
90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Gefle IF · On: N. Lundstrom · Off: K. Persson
90′🟨 YELLOW · 93' Piteå
90′🟥 RED CARD · 93' Gefle IF
90′⚽ GOAL · 94' Gefle IF 3–3 Piteå
FTFULL TIME Gefle IF 3–3 Piteå
FTGefle IF 3–3 Piteå · Gefle IF win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Gefle IF win44%

Draw26%

Piteå win31%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:00

VenueGavlevallen

Line-ups

Gefle IF

Piteå

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Gefle IF

Piteå

8Days since last match8

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Gefle IF	25	−14	30
14	Piteå	25	−16	22

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Gefle IF

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Croon

2 E. Larsson

4 T. Hansemon

9 A. Zahirovic

10 M. Mokede

11 L. Vikgren

15 A. Nezirevic

16 R. Nehrman

18 M. Spangberg

24 K. Persson

77 S. Zulum

Coach · –

Substitutes

3 · K. Myrttinen

6 · I. Edman

7 · V. Ali Batti

19 · A. Sipic

20 · Y. Sugita

22 · W. Hedvall

23 · N. Lundstrom

Piteå

Formation not confirmed

4 T. Oostra

6 S. Jamehdar

8 C. Berglund

10 F. Johansson

14 J. Lundback

16 B. Brooks

18 J. Johnson

21 H. Bergstrom

24 A. Ingemarson

28 L. Jordan

31 F. Eriksson

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · T. Adell

2 · H. Millbert

11 · J. Bonilla

20 · A. Lindgren

23 · L. Lindgren

25 · Q. Hoeve

Our number · gefle if winPublished 11 Oct 15:13

44% The market50%

Us44%

~~Market~~50%

We make Gefle IF a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · gefle if win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 52% to 50% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gefle IF win	44%	50%	−6
Draw	26%	26%	0
Piteå win	31%	24%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	50%	53%	−2
Both teams to score	54%	55%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	75%	75%	0
Over 3.5 goals	29%	32%	−3
Gefle IF or draw	69%	76%	−6
Gefle IF clean sheet	30%	–	–
Piteå clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 7.1 8.0 4.9 2.0 1 10.0 12.1 7.1 2.9 2 7.5 8.8 5.3 2.2 3 3.8 4.4 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gefle IF down, Piteå across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,404 Ettan - Norra matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ettan - Norra matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.3% of games this season, across 204 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 2.80 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gefle IF at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Piteå away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.49 goals for Gefle IF, 1.20 for Piteå. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~PIT 0–2 GEF · PIT 1–4 GEF · GEF 2–2 PIT · GEF 1–0 PIT

Form · last six in Ettan - Norra

GEFLE IF

LWLWLL0–1 · 3–1 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–1

PITEÅ

WLLWWD3–0 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Stockholm Internazionale	26	+42	60
2	Arlanda	26	+15	48
3	AFC Eskilstuna	26	+11	47
4	Hammarby Talang	25	+26	45
5	IF Karlstad	26	+15	44
6	FBK Karlstad	25	+6	43
7	Enköping	25	−2	42
8	Karlberg	26	−8	33
9	Assyriska FF	25	−2	32
10	Umeå FC	25	−7	32
11	Gefle IF	25	−14	30
12	Vasalund	26	−16	28
13	Sollentuna	26	−9	27
14	Piteå	25	−16	22
15	Järfälla	25	−22	19
16	Stocksund	26	−19	15