Gefle IF v FBK Karlstad prediction · Ettan

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Gefle IF 1–0 FBK Karlstad FBK KARLSTAD WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FBK Karlstad win~~42%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.675

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.765

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FBK Karlstad win at 42%.
1′Much as we predicted: FBK Karlstad was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 34–25–42
1′KICK-OFF Gefle IF v FBK Karlstad
45′HALF-TIME Gefle IF 0–0 FBK Karlstad
46′SECOND HALF Gefle IF 0–0 FBK Karlstad
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was FBK Karlstad win 36%)
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' FBK Karlstad win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
55′We said FBK Karlstad at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 30%. 0–0 · 26–44–30
55′We expected about 2.9 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 26–44–30
57′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Gefle IF
58′We said FBK Karlstad at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 25–46–29
60′🟨 YELLOW · 60' FBK Karlstad
67′We said FBK Karlstad at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 21–55–24
68′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Gefle IF · On: M. Spangberg · Off: A. Zahirovic
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' FBK Karlstad win: 42% at kick-off, 22% now
74′We said FBK Karlstad at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 17–64–19
76′SUBSTITUTION · 73' FBK Karlstad · On: W. Olsson · Off: W. Dukhan
78′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Gefle IF
79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' FBK Karlstad
80′We said FBK Karlstad at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 12–74–14
80′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Gefle IF · On: A. Sipic · Off: R. Nehrman
80′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Gefle IF · On: Y. Sugita · Off: N. Lundstrom
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' FBK Karlstad win: 42% at kick-off, 11% now
83′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Gefle IF
84′We said FBK Karlstad at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 8–83–9
85′Gefle IF score on 84′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 92–8–0
85′We said FBK Karlstad at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at under 1%. 1–0 · 92–8–0
85′⚽ GOAL · 84' Gefle IF 1–0 FBK Karlstad
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' FBK Karlstad win: 42% at kick-off, under 1% now
85′THE CALL SWINGS · 85' Gefle IF win is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Draw 83%)
93′SUBSTITUTION · 87' FBK Karlstad · On: B. Buisson · Off: E. Navassardian
93′SUBSTITUTION · 87' FBK Karlstad · On: A. Sandstad · Off: L. Steen
FTFULL TIME Gefle IF 1–0 FBK Karlstad
FTGefle IF 1–0 FBK Karlstad · FBK Karlstad win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FBK Karlstad are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Gefle IF 34%, draw 25%, FBK Karlstad 42%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Gefle IF v FBK KarlstadBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Gefle IF win34%

Draw25%

FBK Karlstad win42%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundNorra · matchday 28

VenueGavlevallen

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Gefle IF

FBK Karlstad

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Ettan - Norra

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	FBK Karlstad	27	+7	46
11	Gefle IF	27	−14	32

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fbk karlstad winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

42% The market44%

Us42%

~~Market~~44%

We make FBK Karlstad a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Gefle IF v FBK Karlstad~~1.36 – 1.54

~~Form · last six in Ettan - Norra this season · since 16 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 32 v 46~~11 v 6

~~The market · FBK Karlstad win~~44% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FBK Karlstad win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gefle IF win	34%	29%	+5
Draw	25%	26%	−1
FBK Karlstad win	42%	44%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	55%	54%	+1
Both teams to score	58%	57%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	78%	76%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	33%	33%	0
Gefle IF or draw	58%	56%	+2
Gefle IF clean sheet	22%	–	–
FBK Karlstad clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 5.8 8.5 6.6 3.4 1 7.5 11.5 8.7 4.5 2 5.1 7.7 5.8 3.0 3 2.3 3.5 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gefle IF down, FBK Karlstad across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,417 Ettan - Norra matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ettan - Norra matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.8% of games this season, across 217 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2023 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gefle IF at home: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). FBK Karlstad away: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.36 goals for Gefle IF, 1.54 for FBK Karlstad. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~FBK 2–1 GEF

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ettan - Norra this season · since 16 Sept

GEFLE IF

LWLLDD0–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 3–3 · 1–1

FBK KARLSTAD

DDWDLW0–0 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 3–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Stockholm Internazionale	27	+42	61
2	AFC Eskilstuna	27	+15	50
3	Hammarby Talang	28	+26	49
4	Arlanda	27	+13	48
5	Enköping	27	+1	48
6	FBK Karlstad	27	+7	46
7	IF Karlstad	27	+14	44
8	Umeå FC	27	−4	38
9	Assyriska FF	27	−3	35
10	Karlberg	27	−10	33
11	Gefle IF	27	−14	32
12	Sollentuna	27	−9	28
13	Vasalund	27	−20	28
14	Piteå	27	−16	24
15	Järfälla	28	−21	23
16	Stocksund	27	−21	15