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FBK Karlstad v Karlberg
FBK Karlstad
KarlbergEttan - Norra · SAT 17 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said FBK Karlstad win at 46%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: FBK Karlstad was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–24–31
- 1′KICK-OFF FBK Karlstad v Karlberg
- 7′Much as we predicted: FBK Karlstad was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–25–31
- 17′A goal for Karlberg on 17′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 21–23–57
- 17′We said FBK Karlstad at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 21%. 0–1 · 21–23–57
- 17′⚽ GOAL · 17' FBK Karlstad 0–1 Karlberg
- 17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' FBK Karlstad win: 46% at kick-off, 21% now
- 17′THE CALL SWINGS · 17' Karlberg win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was FBK Karlstad win 21%)
- 22′We said FBK Karlstad at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–23–58
- 25′🟨 YELLOW · 25' FBK Karlstad
- 30′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 0–1 · 17–23–59
- 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' FBK Karlstad win: 46% at kick-off, 16% now
- 40′We said FBK Karlstad at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–24–62
- 45′HALF-TIME FBK Karlstad 0–1 Karlberg
- 46′SECOND HALF FBK Karlstad 0–1 Karlberg
- 52′FBK Karlstad score on 52′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 34–40–26
- 52′We said FBK Karlstad at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–40–26
- 52′⚽ GOAL · 52' FBK Karlstad 1–1 Karlberg
- 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' FBK Karlstad win: 46% at kick-off, 34% now
- 52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Karlberg win 26%)
- 57′FBK Karlstad find the net on 56′. 2–1. 2–1 · 76–19–5
- 57′We published FBK Karlstad at 46%. Our model now makes it 76%. 2–1 · 76–19–5
- 57′⚽ GOAL · 56' FBK Karlstad 2–1 Karlberg
- 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' FBK Karlstad win: 46% at kick-off, 76% now
- 57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' FBK Karlstad win is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Draw 19%)
- 58′We published FBK Karlstad at 46%. Our model now makes it 76%. 2–1 · 76–19–5
- 63′A goal for FBK Karlstad on 63′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 96–4–1
- 63′We published FBK Karlstad at 46%. Our model now makes it 96%. 3–1 · 96–4–1
- 63′⚽ GOAL · 63' FBK Karlstad 3–1 Karlberg
- 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' FBK Karlstad win: 46% at kick-off, 96% now
- 64′4 goals already, more than the 3.1 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 96–3–1
- 67′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Karlberg · On: M. Jansson · Off: H. Fernandez
- 67′SUBSTITUTION · 63' FBK Karlstad · On: B. Buisson · Off: E. Navassardian
- 67′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Karlberg · On: V. Hall · Off: H. Aslund
- 77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' FBK Karlstad · On: A. Sandstad · Off: L. Fredriksson
- 77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' FBK Karlstad · On: W. Olsson · Off: W. Dukhan
- 77′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Karlberg · On: M. Mitku · Off: N. Negash
- 82′SUBSTITUTION · 76' FBK Karlstad · On: A. Parleholt · Off: L. Steen
- 83′We published FBK Karlstad at 46%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
- 90′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Karlberg · On: B. Basaric · Off: F. Nieminen Eriksson
- 90′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Karlberg · On: R. Sundgren · Off: M. Lalic
- 90′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Karlberg
- FTFULL TIME FBK Karlstad 3–1 Karlberg
- FTFBK Karlstad 3–1 Karlberg · FBK Karlstad win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassFBK Karlstad are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: FBK Karlstad 46%, draw 23%, Karlberg 31%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 61%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
FBK Karlstad win46%
Karlberg win31%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00
RoundNorra · matchday 27
Match timeline
All events
FBK KarlstadMIN
KarlbergEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
FBK Karlstad
Karlberg
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
FBK Karlstad
Karlberg
Last match: 11 Oct · Ettan - Norra
Last match: 10 Oct · Ettan - Norra
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
FBK Karlstad
Formation not confirmed
20 V. Johansson
4 L. Fredriksson
6 C. Marigliano
8 M. Oluwayemi
13 J. Hoiby
15 W. Dukhan
18 E. Forsberg
21 E. Navassardian
22 V. Tigerholm
26 A. Hagelberg
38 L. Steen
Coach · –
Substitutes
19 · N. Rolandsson
3 · A. Parleholt
9 · F. Johansson Bahar
12 · A. Sandstad
14 · B. Buisson
17 · W. Olsson
23 · A. Rostlund
Karlberg
Formation not confirmed
35 E. Bojang
2 F. Nieminen Eriksson
3 V. Steen
7 H. Fernandez
8 N. Negash
12 A. Sequar
17 H. Aslund
18 M. Lalic
19 A. Jemal
24 L. Sietsema
25 F. Hogberg
Coach · Aydin Arjang
Substitutes
1 · A. Gkoulios
5 · B. Basaric
9 · A. Jamshidi
11 · M. Mitku
13 · R. Sundgren
15 · V. Hall
16 · M. Jansson
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
FBK Karlstad
Formation not confirmed
20 V. Johansson
4 L. Fredriksson
6 C. Marigliano
8 M. Oluwayemi
13 J. Hoiby
15 W. Dukhan
18 E. Forsberg
21 E. Navassardian
22 V. Tigerholm
26 A. Hagelberg
38 L. Steen
Coach · –
Substitutes
19 · N. Rolandsson
3 · A. Parleholt
9 · F. Johansson Bahar
12 · A. Sandstad
14 · B. Buisson
17 · W. Olsson
23 · A. Rostlund
Karlberg
Formation not confirmed
35 E. Bojang
2 F. Nieminen Eriksson
3 V. Steen
7 H. Fernandez
8 N. Negash
12 A. Sequar
17 H. Aslund
18 M. Lalic
19 A. Jemal
24 L. Sietsema
25 F. Hogberg
Coach · Aydin Arjang
Substitutes
1 · A. Gkoulios
5 · B. Basaric
9 · A. Jamshidi
11 · M. Mitku
13 · R. Sundgren
15 · V. Hall
16 · M. Jansson
We make FBK Karlstad a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.4.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 52% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| FBK Karlstad win | 46% | 52% | −6 |
| Draw | 23% | 24% | −1 |
| Karlberg win | 31% | 24% | +7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 61% | −2 |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | 81% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | 39% | −2 |
| FBK Karlstad or draw | 69% | 76% | −7 |
| FBK Karlstad clean sheet | 26% | – | – |
| Karlberg clean sheet | 18% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
3 meetings since 2023Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Ettan - Norra this season · since 12 Sept
FBK KARLSTAD
KARLBERG
The table
2026| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stockholm Internazionale | 26 | +42 | 60 |
| 2 | Arlanda | 26 | +15 | 48 |
| 3 | Enköping | 27 | +1 | 48 |
| 4 | AFC Eskilstuna | 26 | +11 | 47 |
| 5 | Hammarby Talang | 26 | +25 | 45 |
| 6 | IF Karlstad | 26 | +15 | 44 |
| 7 | FBK Karlstad | 26 | +5 | 43 |
| 8 | Assyriska FF | 26 | −1 | 35 |
| 9 | Umeå FC | 26 | −6 | 35 |
| 10 | Karlberg | 26 | −8 | 33 |
| 11 | Gefle IF | 26 | −14 | 31 |
| 12 | Vasalund | 26 | −16 | 28 |
| 13 | Sollentuna | 26 | −9 | 27 |
| 14 | Piteå | 26 | −16 | 23 |
| 15 | Järfälla | 26 | −23 | 19 |
| 16 | Stocksund | 27 | −21 | 15 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Stockholm Internazionale
Arlanda
Enköping
AFC Eskilstuna
Hammarby Talang
IF Karlstad
Assyriska FF
Umeå FC
Gefle IF
Vasalund
Sollentuna
Piteå
Järfälla
Stocksund