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Model 1.2

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FBK Karlstad v Karlberg

FBK Karlstad
3–1Full time
Karlberg

Ettan - Norra · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10
FBK Karlstad 3–1 Karlberg FBK KARLSTAD WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said FBK Karlstad win46%
The market said52%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.448
The market’s Brier score0.340

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 27 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said FBK Karlstad win at 46%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: FBK Karlstad was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–24–31
  3. 1′KICK-OFF FBK Karlstad v Karlberg
  4. 7′Much as we predicted: FBK Karlstad was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–25–31
  5. 17′A goal for Karlberg on 17′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 21–23–57
  6. 17′We said FBK Karlstad at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 21%. 0–1 · 21–23–57
  7. 17′⚽ GOAL · 17' FBK Karlstad 0–1 Karlberg
  8. 17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' FBK Karlstad win: 46% at kick-off, 21% now
  9. 17′THE CALL SWINGS · 17' Karlberg win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was FBK Karlstad win 21%)
  10. 22′We said FBK Karlstad at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–23–58
  11. 25′🟨 YELLOW · 25' FBK Karlstad
  12. 30′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 0–1 · 17–23–59
  13. 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' FBK Karlstad win: 46% at kick-off, 16% now
  14. 40′We said FBK Karlstad at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–24–62
  15. 45′HALF-TIME FBK Karlstad 0–1 Karlberg
  16. 46′SECOND HALF FBK Karlstad 0–1 Karlberg
  17. 52′FBK Karlstad score on 52′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 34–40–26
  18. 52′We said FBK Karlstad at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–40–26
  19. 52′⚽ GOAL · 52' FBK Karlstad 1–1 Karlberg
  20. 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' FBK Karlstad win: 46% at kick-off, 34% now
  21. 52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Karlberg win 26%)
  22. 57′FBK Karlstad find the net on 56′. 2–1. 2–1 · 76–19–5
  23. 57′We published FBK Karlstad at 46%. Our model now makes it 76%. 2–1 · 76–19–5
  24. 57′⚽ GOAL · 56' FBK Karlstad 2–1 Karlberg
  25. 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' FBK Karlstad win: 46% at kick-off, 76% now
  26. 57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' FBK Karlstad win is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Draw 19%)
  27. 58′We published FBK Karlstad at 46%. Our model now makes it 76%. 2–1 · 76–19–5
  28. 63′A goal for FBK Karlstad on 63′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 96–4–1
  29. 63′We published FBK Karlstad at 46%. Our model now makes it 96%. 3–1 · 96–4–1
  30. 63′⚽ GOAL · 63' FBK Karlstad 3–1 Karlberg
  31. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' FBK Karlstad win: 46% at kick-off, 96% now
  32. 64′4 goals already, more than the 3.1 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 96–3–1
  33. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Karlberg · On: M. Jansson · Off: H. Fernandez
  34. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 63' FBK Karlstad · On: B. Buisson · Off: E. Navassardian
  35. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Karlberg · On: V. Hall · Off: H. Aslund
  36. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' FBK Karlstad · On: A. Sandstad · Off: L. Fredriksson
  37. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' FBK Karlstad · On: W. Olsson · Off: W. Dukhan
  38. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Karlberg · On: M. Mitku · Off: N. Negash
  39. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 76' FBK Karlstad · On: A. Parleholt · Off: L. Steen
  40. 83′We published FBK Karlstad at 46%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  41. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Karlberg · On: B. Basaric · Off: F. Nieminen Eriksson
  42. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Karlberg · On: R. Sundgren · Off: M. Lalic
  43. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Karlberg
  44. FTFULL TIME FBK Karlstad 3–1 Karlberg
  45. FTFBK Karlstad 3–1 Karlberg · FBK Karlstad win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FBK Karlstad are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FBK Karlstad 46%, draw 23%, Karlberg 31%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on FBK Karlstad v KarlbergBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

FBK Karlstad win46%
Draw23%
Karlberg win31%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundNorra · matchday 27

Line-ups

FBK Karlstad

Karlberg

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FBK Karlstad

Karlberg

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Ettan - Norra

Last match: 10 Oct · Ettan - Norra

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
7FBK Karlstad26+543
10Karlberg26−833

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

FBK Karlstad

Formation not confirmed

20 V. Johansson

4 L. Fredriksson

6 C. Marigliano

8 M. Oluwayemi

13 J. Hoiby

15 W. Dukhan

18 E. Forsberg

21 E. Navassardian

22 V. Tigerholm

26 A. Hagelberg

38 L. Steen

Coach · –

Substitutes

19 · N. Rolandsson

3 · A. Parleholt

9 · F. Johansson Bahar

12 · A. Sandstad

14 · B. Buisson

17 · W. Olsson

23 · A. Rostlund

Karlberg

Formation not confirmed

35 E. Bojang

2 F. Nieminen Eriksson

3 V. Steen

7 H. Fernandez

8 N. Negash

12 A. Sequar

17 H. Aslund

18 M. Lalic

19 A. Jemal

24 L. Sietsema

25 F. Hogberg

Coach · Aydin Arjang

Substitutes

1 · A. Gkoulios

5 · B. Basaric

9 · A. Jamshidi

11 · M. Mitku

13 · R. Sundgren

15 · V. Hall

16 · M. Jansson

Our number · fbk karlstad winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
46% The market52%
Us46%
Market52%

We make FBK Karlstad a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · FBK Karlstad v Karlberg1.71 – 1.37
Form · last six in Ettan - Norra this season · since 12 SeptW2 D3 L1 · W2 D2 L2
Table places · points 43 v 337 v 10
The market · FBK Karlstad win52% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55% 11 OCT 04:0617 OCT 14:16
Our probability · FBK Karlstad win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
FBK Karlstad win46%52%−6
Draw23%24%−1
Karlberg win31%24%+7
Over 2.5 goals59%61%−2
Both teams to score61%61%0
Over 1.5 goals81%81%0
Over 3.5 goals37%39%−2
FBK Karlstad or draw69%76%−7
FBK Karlstad clean sheet26%––
Karlberg clean sheet18%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%
0123450 4.8 6.4 4.4 2.0 1 7.9 10.7 7.2 3.4 2 6.7 9.0 6.1 2.8 3 3.8 5.1 3.5 4 2.3 5
under 2% 5% 12%+FBK Karlstad down, Karlberg across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2023
Goals a meeting2.67
Over 2.52 of 3
Both scored2 of 3
Last meetingsKAR 1–1 FBK · KAR 1–2 FBK · FBK 0–3 KAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ettan - Norra this season · since 12 Sept

FBK KARLSTAD

WDDWDL2–1 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 0–1

KARLBERG

WLLDWD1–0 · 0–5 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 3–3

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Stockholm Internazionale26+4260
2Arlanda26+1548
3Enköping27+148
4AFC Eskilstuna26+1147
5Hammarby Talang26+2545
6IF Karlstad26+1544
7FBK Karlstad26+543
8Assyriska FF26−135
9Umeå FC26−635
10Karlberg26−833
11Gefle IF26−1431
12Vasalund26−1628
13Sollentuna26−927
14Piteå26−1623
15Järfälla26−2319
16Stocksund27−2115

The competition's standings before kick-off.