Assyriska FF v FBK Karlstad prediction · Ettan

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Assyriska FF 1–0 FBK Karlstad ASSYRISKA FF WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Assyriska FF win~~39%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.571

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.592

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Assyriska FF win at 39%.
1′KICK-OFF Assyriska FF v FBK Karlstad
4′Much as we predicted: Assyriska FF was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–24–38
7′Much as we predicted: Assyriska FF was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–24–37
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Assyriska FF 1–0 FBK Karlstad
45′HALF-TIME Assyriska FF 1–0 FBK Karlstad
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Assyriska FF 1–0 FBK Karlstad · K. Jarret-Marston
46′SECOND HALF Assyriska FF 1–0 FBK Karlstad
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' FBK Karlstad · On: A. Sandstad · Off: W. Olsson
74′SUBSTITUTION · 71' FBK Karlstad · On: W. Dukhan · Off: M. Oluwayemi
74′SUBSTITUTION · 71' FBK Karlstad · On: A. Parleholt · Off: C. Marigliano
79′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Assyriska FF · On: A. Diagne · Off: L. Hillemar
82′🟨 YELLOW · 82' FBK Karlstad
84′SUBSTITUTION · 82' FBK Karlstad · On: B. Buisson · Off: E. Navassardian
90′🟨 YELLOW · 95' Assyriska FF
FTFULL TIME Assyriska FF 1–0 FBK Karlstad
FTAssyriska FF 1–0 FBK Karlstad · Assyriska FF win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Assyriska FF win39%

Draw23%

FBK Karlstad win38%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:00

VenueSodertalje Fotbollsarena

Line-ups

Assyriska FF

FBK Karlstad

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Assyriska FF

FBK Karlstad

8Days since last match8

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	FBK Karlstad	25	+6	43
9	Assyriska FF	25	−2	32

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Assyriska FF

Formation not confirmed

31 K. Osayi

22 M. Haddad

6 A. Kalabane

2 E. Sjoblom

4 S. Wandin

10 K. Jarret-Marston

23 V. Asberg

12 S. Edgren

3 L. Tahwildaran

16 L. Hillemar

14 V. Widerberg

Coach · –

Substitutes

21 · L. Ronnelow

8 · A. Diagne

9 · L. Jonsson

11 · J. Goncalves Karlstedt

13 · A. Jacob

19 · N. Jovanovic

24 · A. Jacob

FBK Karlstad

Formation not confirmed

4 L. Fredriksson

6 C. Marigliano

8 M. Oluwayemi

13 J. Hoiby

17 W. Olsson

18 E. Forsberg

20 V. Johansson

21 E. Navassardian

22 V. Tigerholm

26 A. Hagelberg

38 L. Steen

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · K. V. Dahlberg

3 · A. Parleholt

9 · F. Johansson Bahar

12 · A. Sandstad

14 · B. Buisson

15 · W. Dukhan

23 · A. Rostlund

Our number · assyriska ff winPublished 11 Oct 15:13

39% The market38%

Us39%

~~Market~~38%

We make Assyriska FF a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.7–1.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · assyriska ff win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Assyriska FF win	39%	38%	+1
Draw	23%	25%	−2
FBK Karlstad win	38%	37%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	64%	64%	0
Both teams to score	65%	65%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	84%	82%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	42%	43%	−2
Assyriska FF or draw	62%	63%	−1
Assyriska FF clean sheet	20%	–	–
FBK Karlstad clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.1%

0123450 4.0 6.1 5.0 2.7 1 6.1 10.1 8.1 4.4 2 5.1 8.2 6.6 3.6 3 2.9 4.5 3.7 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Assyriska FF down, FBK Karlstad across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,404 Ettan - Norra matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ettan - Norra matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.3% of games this season, across 204 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 5.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Assyriska FF at home: 2.00 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). FBK Karlstad away: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.66 goals for Assyriska FF, 1.63 for FBK Karlstad. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~FBK 0–2 ASS · ASS 2–3 FBK · FBK 3–5 ASS

Form · last six in Ettan - Norra

ASSYRISKA FF

WLLWLL2–1 · 1–2 · 2–5 · 5–1 · 1–2 · 0–3

FBK KARLSTAD

WWDDWD3–0 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 2–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Stockholm Internazionale	26	+42	60
2	Arlanda	26	+15	48
3	AFC Eskilstuna	26	+11	47
4	Hammarby Talang	25	+26	45
5	IF Karlstad	26	+15	44
6	FBK Karlstad	25	+6	43
7	Enköping	25	−2	42
8	Karlberg	26	−8	33
9	Assyriska FF	25	−2	32
10	Umeå FC	25	−7	32
11	Gefle IF	25	−14	30
12	Vasalund	26	−16	28
13	Sollentuna	26	−9	27
14	Piteå	25	−16	22
15	Järfälla	25	−22	19
16	Stocksund	26	−19	15