Assyriska FF v Arlanda prediction · Ettan

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Assyriska FFDrawArlanda

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Arlanda 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Arlanda are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Assyriska FF 35%, draw 23%, Arlanda 42%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Assyriska FF v ArlandaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Assyriska FF win35%

Draw23%

Arlanda win42%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:00

RoundNorra · matchday 28

VenueSodertalje Fotbollsarena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Assyriska FF

Arlanda

7Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · Ettan - Norra

Last match: 17 Oct · Ettan - Norra

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Arlanda	27	+13	48
9	Assyriska FF	27	−3	35

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · arlanda winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

42% The market41%

Us42%

~~Market~~41%

We make Arlanda a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Assyriska FF v Arlanda~~1.53 – 1.69

~~Form · last six in Ettan - Norra this season · since 16 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 35 v 48~~9 v 4

~~The market · Arlanda win~~41% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Arlanda win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Assyriska FF win	35%	35%	0
Draw	23%	24%	−1
Arlanda win	42%	41%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	62%	65%	−3
Both teams to score	63%	66%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	83%	83%	0
Over 3.5 goals	40%	45%	−5
Assyriska FF or draw	58%	59%	−1
Assyriska FF clean sheet	19%	–	–
Arlanda clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.3%

0123450 4.2 6.8 5.7 3.2 1 6.2 10.3 8.5 4.8 2.1 2 4.7 7.8 6.5 3.7 3 2.4 4.0 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Assyriska FF down, Arlanda across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,420 Ettan - Norra matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ettan - Norra matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.5% of games this season, across 220 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 1.67 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Assyriska FF at home: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Arlanda away: 1.67 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.53 goals for Assyriska FF, 1.69 for Arlanda. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.67

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~ARL 2–0 ASS · ASS 1–2 ARL · ARL 0–0 ASS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ettan - Norra this season · since 16 Sept

ASSYRISKA FF

LWLLWL2–5 · 5–1 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 1–3

ARLANDA

WWWWLL2–0 · 4–2 · 2–0 · 4–1 · 0–3 · 1–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Stockholm Internazionale	28	+45	64
2	AFC Eskilstuna	27	+15	50
3	Hammarby Talang	28	+26	49
4	Arlanda	27	+13	48
5	Enköping	27	+1	48
6	FBK Karlstad	28	+6	46
7	IF Karlstad	28	+11	44
8	Umeå FC	27	−4	38
9	Assyriska FF	27	−3	35
10	Gefle IF	28	−13	35
11	Karlberg	27	−10	33
12	Sollentuna	28	−7	31
13	Vasalund	28	−22	28
14	Piteå	27	−16	24
15	Järfälla	28	−21	23
16	Stocksund	27	−21	15