Arlanda v Järfälla prediction · Ettan

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Arlanda 1–3 Järfälla ARLANDA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Arlanda win~~62%

~~The market said~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.074

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.041

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Arlanda win at 62%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Arlanda 62% before kick-off, 62% now. 0–0 · 62–19–19
1′KICK-OFF Arlanda v Järfälla
7′Little has changed for our model: Arlanda 62% before kick-off, 60% now. 0–0 · 60–20–19
24′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Järfälla
29′Arlanda find the net on 29′. 1–0. 1–0 · 80–14–6
29′We said Arlanda at 62% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–14–6
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Arlanda 1–0 Järfälla
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Arlanda win: 62% at kick-off, 80% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.5 we expected. 1–0 · 80–14–6
32′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Järfälla
41′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Arlanda
45′HALF-TIME Arlanda 1–0 Järfälla
46′SECOND HALF Arlanda 1–0 Järfälla
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Arlanda win: 62% at kick-off, 82% now
59′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Arlanda
60′A goal for Järfälla on 60′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 41–42–18
60′We said Arlanda at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 41%. 1–1 · 41–42–18
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Arlanda 1–1 Järfälla
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' Arlanda win: 62% at kick-off, 41% now
62′We said Arlanda at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–43–17
63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Arlanda win 39%)
68′We said Arlanda at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–50–16
70′Järfälla score on 69′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 8–25–68
70′We said Arlanda at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 1–2 · 8–25–68
70′⚽ GOAL · 69' Arlanda 1–2 Järfälla
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Arlanda win: 62% at kick-off, 8% now
70′THE CALL SWINGS · 70' Järfälla win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Draw 25%)
73′Järfälla find the net on 73′. 1–3. 1–3 · 1–5–94
73′We said Arlanda at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 1–3 · 1–5–94
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Arlanda 1–3 Järfälla
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Arlanda win: 62% at kick-off, 1% now
74′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.5 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 1–5–95
80′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Arlanda · On: J. Carlsson · Off: I. Antholm
80′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Arlanda · On: L. Nyman · Off: M. Butros
81′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Arlanda · On: J. Drugge · Off: A. Charbachi
81′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Arlanda · On: M. Ahmed · Off: A. Hansen
83′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Järfälla · On: N. Medhin T · Off: H. Tinnborg
84′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Järfälla · On: A. Khalil · Off: A. Wurtz
FTFULL TIME Arlanda 1–3 Järfälla
FTArlanda 1–3 Järfälla · Arlanda win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Arlanda are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Arlanda 62%, draw 19%, Järfälla 19%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Arlanda v JärfällaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Arlanda win62%

Draw19%

Järfälla win19%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundNorra · matchday 27

VenueMidgardsvallen

Line-ups

Arlanda

Järfälla

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Arlanda

Järfälla

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · Ettan - Norra

Last match: 11 Oct · Ettan - Norra

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Arlanda	26	+15	48
15	Järfälla	26	−23	19

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Arlanda

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Smedberg Lagh

2 C. Norberg

3 H. Fredricson

8 Y. Yemane

10 A. Charbachi

14 A. Hansen

15 I. Antholm

19 S. Rydz

21 L. Kleist

22 M. Butros

27 E. Johansson

Coach · –

Substitutes

5 · O. Bergstedt

11 · M. Ahmed

12 · L. Nyman

16 · J. Drugge

18 · J. Carlsson

24 · A. Saeed

30 · A. Karo

Järfälla

Formation not confirmed

1 B. Eide

4 Y. Aksoy

9 A. Wurtz

12 D. Markovski

15 H. Tinnborg

16 A. Sabery

19 K. Dahir

20 E. Drugge

23 C. F. Danha

27 D. Bangala

28 A. Abdulle

Coach · –

Substitutes

3 · N. Akdemir

6 · P. Saweris

7 · C. Fox

8 · N. Medhin T

17 · A. Khalil

22 · O. Moller

30 · E. von Feilitzen

Our number · arlanda winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

62% The market59%

Us62%

~~Market~~59%

We make Arlanda a 62% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.3–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Arlanda v Järfälla~~2.29 – 1.19

~~Form · last six in Ettan - Norra this season · since 12 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 48 v 19~~2 v 15

~~The market · Arlanda win~~59% · ours 62%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Arlanda win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Arlanda win	62%	59%	+3
Draw	19%	21%	−2
Järfälla win	19%	20%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	67%	62%	+5
Both teams to score	62%	59%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	86%	82%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	46%	41%	+5
Arlanda or draw	81%	80%	+1
Arlanda clean sheet	31%	–	–
Järfälla clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.4%

0123450 3.3 3.8 2.2 1 7.1 8.4 5.0 2.0 2 8.0 9.4 5.6 2.2 3 6.1 7.1 4.2 4 3.5 4.1 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Arlanda down, Järfälla across0–5 goals a side shown (96.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,409 Ettan - Norra matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ettan - Norra matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.3% of games this season, across 209 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.25 goals a meeting; 6 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Arlanda at home: 2.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Järfälla away: 1.17 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.29 goals for Arlanda, 1.19 for Järfälla. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.25

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~JAR 0–2 ARL · JAR 2–3 ARL · JAR 0–1 ARL · ARL 3–0 JAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ettan - Norra this season · since 12 Sept

ARLANDA

LWWWWL0–1 · 2–0 · 4–2 · 2–0 · 4–1 · 0–3

JÄRFÄLLA

LWLLDL1–3 · 5–0 · 1–3 · 2–4 · 1–1 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Stockholm Internazionale	26	+42	60
2	Arlanda	26	+15	48
3	Enköping	27	+1	48
4	AFC Eskilstuna	26	+11	47
5	Hammarby Talang	26	+25	45
6	IF Karlstad	26	+15	44
7	FBK Karlstad	26	+5	43
8	Assyriska FF	26	−1	35
9	Umeå FC	26	−6	35
10	Karlberg	26	−8	33
11	Gefle IF	26	−14	31
12	Vasalund	26	−16	28
13	Sollentuna	26	−9	27
14	Piteå	26	−16	23
15	Järfälla	26	−23	19
16	Stocksund	27	−21	15