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AFC Eskilstuna v Stockholm Internazionale

AFC Eskilstuna

1–3Full time

Stockholm Internazionale

Ettan - Norra · SAT 10 OCT · Tunavallen

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

AFC Eskilstuna 1–3 Stockholm Internazionale STOCKHOLM INTERNAZIONALE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Stockholm Internazionale win~~58%

~~The market said~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.261

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.274

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Stockholm Internazionale win at 58%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Stockholm Internazionale 58% before kick-off, 58% now. 0–0 · 20–21–58
1′KICK-OFF AFC Eskilstuna v Stockholm Internazionale
31′O. Edlund scores for Stockholm Internazionale on 21′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 6–15–79
31′⚽ GOAL · 28' AFC Eskilstuna 0–1 Stockholm Internazionale
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Stockholm Internazionale win: 58% at kick-off, 79% now
45′⚽ GOAL · 44' AFC Eskilstuna 1–1 Stockholm Internazionale
45′⚽ GOAL · 47' AFC Eskilstuna 1–2 Stockholm Internazionale
45′HALF-TIME AFC Eskilstuna 1–2 Stockholm Internazionale
46′SECOND HALF AFC Eskilstuna 1–2 Stockholm Internazionale
49′⚽ GOAL · 47' AFC Eskilstuna 1–2 Stockholm Internazionale · O. Salama
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' AFC Eskilstuna · On: E. Mahari · Off: I. Ahmed
54′⚽ GOAL · 53' AFC Eskilstuna 1–3 Stockholm Internazionale
69′SUBSTITUTION · 63' AFC Eskilstuna · On: O. Blomdahl · Off: M. Rydh
76′SUBSTITUTION · 69' AFC Eskilstuna · On: E. Chabo · Off: A. Azizovic
76′SUBSTITUTION · 69' AFC Eskilstuna · On: L. Hanson · Off: A. Flodkvist
76′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Stockholm Internazionale · On: O. Leonardsson · Off: O. Salama
82′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Stockholm Internazionale · On: M. Canoilas · Off: O. Edlund
82′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Stockholm Internazionale · On: S. Loyola-Nyden · Off: A. Bergendahl Karki
87′SUBSTITUTION · 83' AFC Eskilstuna · On: R. Bjorkman · Off: M. Youla
90′🟨 YELLOW · 91' AFC Eskilstuna
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Stockholm Internazionale · On: D. Tokpah · Off: L. Sunesson
90′🟨 YELLOW · 91' F. Rogic · AFC Eskilstuna
FTFULL TIME AFC Eskilstuna 1–3 Stockholm Internazionale
FTAFC Eskilstuna 1–3 Stockholm Internazionale · Stockholm Internazionale win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

AFC Eskilstuna win21%

Draw21%

Stockholm Internazionale win58%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Tunavallen

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

AFC Eskilstuna

Formation not confirmed

1 K. Dyplin

8 I. Ahmed

9 A. Flodkvist

16 S. Skoldqvist

19 A. Mazalovic

20 M. Youla

30 I. Cherif Fofana

36 A. Onnebro

55 M. Rydh

68 F. Rogic

99 A. Azizovic

Coach · Tony Andersson

Substitutes

2 · L. Mahmoud

6 · O. Blomdahl

7 · L. Hanson

10 · E. Chabo

11 · R. Bjorkman

18 · E. Mahari

24 · D. Zhuravlev

Stockholm Internazionale

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Bringzen

3 S. Conta

5 D. Fallman

9 L. Sunesson

15 O. Edlund

16 O. Jarde

17 A. Bergendahl Karki

18 R. Allback

21 O. Salama

22 C. Weilid

27 Z. Ghanoum

Coach · –

Substitutes

6 · S. Loyola-Nyden

10 · M. Cosic

11 · T. Sanchez

14 · M. Canoilas

20 · O. Leonardsson

23 · D. Tokpah

30 · S. Rose Meyer

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

AFC Eskilstuna

Formation not confirmed

1 K. Dyplin

8 I. Ahmed

9 A. Flodkvist

16 S. Skoldqvist

19 A. Mazalovic

20 M. Youla

30 I. Cherif Fofana

36 A. Onnebro

55 M. Rydh

68 F. Rogic

99 A. Azizovic

Coach · Tony Andersson

Substitutes

2 · L. Mahmoud

6 · O. Blomdahl

7 · L. Hanson

10 · E. Chabo

11 · R. Bjorkman

18 · E. Mahari

24 · D. Zhuravlev

Stockholm Internazionale

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Bringzen

3 S. Conta

5 D. Fallman

9 L. Sunesson

15 O. Edlund

16 O. Jarde

17 A. Bergendahl Karki

18 R. Allback

21 O. Salama

22 C. Weilid

27 Z. Ghanoum

Coach · –

Substitutes

6 · S. Loyola-Nyden

10 · M. Cosic

11 · T. Sanchez

14 · M. Canoilas

20 · O. Leonardsson

23 · D. Tokpah

30 · S. Rose Meyer

Our number · stockholm internazionale winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

58% The market57%

Us58%

~~Market~~57%

We make Stockholm Internazionale a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.1–2.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · stockholm internazionale win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 55% to 57% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
AFC Eskilstuna win	21%	20%	+1
Draw	21%	23%	−2
Stockholm Internazionale win	58%	57%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	62%	58%	+4
Both teams to score	59%	57%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	83%	79%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	40%	37%	+3
AFC Eskilstuna or draw	42%	43%	−1
AFC Eskilstuna clean sheet	13%	–	–
Stockholm Internazionale clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 9.6%

0123450 4.4 8.3 8.6 5.9 3.1 1 4.6 9.6 9.6 6.6 3.5 2 2.7 5.4 5.5 3.8 3 2.1 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+AFC Eskilstuna down, Stockholm Internazionale across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,401 Ettan - Norra matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ettan - Norra matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.7% of games this season, across 201 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 3.80 goals a meeting; 4 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

AFC Eskilstuna at home: 1.00 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Stockholm Internazionale away: 2.50 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.14 goals for AFC Eskilstuna, 2.07 for Stockholm Internazionale. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.80

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 5

~~Both scored~~1 of 5

~~Last meetings~~STO 0–2 AFC · AFC 0–3 STO · STO 4–0 AFC · STO 4–0 AFC

Form · last six in Ettan - Norra

AFC ESKILSTUNA

WWWLWD2–1 · 1–0 · 5–2 · 0–1 · 4–2 · 2–2

STOCKHOLM INTERNAZIONALE

WWWWWW3–0 · 4–0 · 5–2 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 3–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Stockholm Internazionale	25	+40	57
2	Arlanda	25	+18	48
3	AFC Eskilstuna	25	+13	47
4	Hammarby Talang	25	+26	45
5	FBK Karlstad	25	+6	43
6	Enköping	25	−2	42
7	IF Karlstad	25	+12	41
8	Assyriska FF	25	−2	32
9	Umeå FC	25	−7	32
10	Karlberg	25	−8	32
11	Gefle IF	25	−14	30
12	Sollentuna	26	−9	27
13	Vasalund	25	−16	27
14	Piteå	25	−16	22
15	Järfälla	25	−22	19
16	Stocksund	26	−19	15