Trelleborg W v Umeå W prediction · Elitettan

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:53

Trelleborg W 0–4 Umeå W UMEÅ W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Umeå W win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.476

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Umeå W win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Umeå W was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 32–25–44
1′KICK-OFF Trelleborg W v Umeå W
11′Umeå W score on 11′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 12–19–69
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Trelleborg W 0–1 Umeå W
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Umeå W win: 44% at kick-off, 69% now
12′We published Umeå W at 44%. Our model now makes it 69%. 0–1 · 12–19–69
13′10′: I. Amcoff on the scoresheet for Umeå W, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 12–19–69
13′Umeå W find the net on 13′. 0–2. 0–2 · 4–8–88
13′We published Umeå W at 44%. Our model now makes it 88%. 0–2 · 4–8–88
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Trelleborg W 0–2 Umeå W
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Umeå W win: 44% at kick-off, 88% now
14′Umeå W ahead on 12′ through L. M. Westbom. 0–2. 0–2 · 4–8–88
25′We published Umeå W at 44%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–2 · 3–8–90
44′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Trelleborg W
45′HALF-TIME Trelleborg W 0–2 Umeå W
46′SECOND HALF Trelleborg W 0–2 Umeå W
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Umeå W win: 44% at kick-off, 94% now
53′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 0–2 · 1–5–94
53′A goal for Umeå W on 53′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–1–99
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Trelleborg W 0–3 Umeå W
54′We published Umeå W at 44%. Our model now makes it 99%. 0–3 · 0–1–99
54′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 0–3 · 0–1–99
63′We published Umeå W at 44%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
70′Umeå W score on 70′ to make it 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
70′4 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 0–4 · 0–0–100
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Trelleborg W 0–4 Umeå W
76′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Umeå W · On: J. Holmgren · Off: T. Sorlen
76′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Umeå W · On: T. Sahlman · Off: E. Fjallstrom
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Umeå W · On: M. Persson · Off: I. Amcoff
83′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Trelleborg W · On: E. Boije · Off: H. Persson
83′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Trelleborg W · On: A. Thorisson · Off: E. Lenir
84′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Trelleborg W · On: M. Stojanovska · Off: J. Lilliehook
84′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Trelleborg W · On: K. Kempe Kivi · Off: R. Karlsson
84′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Umeå W · On: T. Ahlen · Off: L. M. Westbom
84′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Umeå W · On: E. Becker · Off: L. Tjarnberg
FTFULL TIME Trelleborg W 0–4 Umeå W
FTTrelleborg W 0–4 Umeå W · Umeå W win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Umeå W are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Trelleborg W 32%, draw 24%, Umeå W 44%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Trelleborg W v Umeå WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Trelleborg W win32%

Draw24%

Umeå W win44%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 23

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Trelleborg W

Umeå W

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Elitettan

Last match: 17 Oct · Elitettan

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Umeå W	22	+13	38
6	Trelleborg W	22	−3	32

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · umeå w winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Umeå W a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Trelleborg W v Umeå W~~1.24 – 1.52

~~Form · last six in Elitettan this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 32 v 38~~6 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Umeå W win

Published at 42%, 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Trelleborg W win	32%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Umeå W win	44%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	52%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
Trelleborg W or draw	56%	–	–
Trelleborg W clean sheet	23%	–	–
Umeå W clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 6.5 10.0 7.3 3.7 1 8.3 11.3 8.6 4.4 2 4.9 7.1 5.3 2.7 3 2.1 3.1 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Trelleborg W down, Umeå W across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,065 Elitettan matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Elitettan matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.8% of games this season, across 154 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2023 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Trelleborg W at home: 1.83 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). Umeå W away: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.24 goals for Trelleborg W, 1.52 for Umeå W. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 5

~~Both scored~~1 of 5

~~Last meetings~~UME 0–2 TRE · UME 3–2 TRE · TRE 0–1 UME · TRE 3–0 UME

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Elitettan this season · since 5 Sept

TRELLEBORG W

DDWWLL2–2 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 2–4 · 1–3

UMEÅ W

DWWWWD1–1 · 2–0 · 5–1 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Elfsborg W	22	+31	51
2	KIF Örebro W	22	+30	50
3	Göteborg W	22	+32	48
4	Linköping W	22	+11	43
5	Umeå W	22	+13	38
6	Trelleborg W	22	−3	32
7	Husqvarna W	22	−2	31
8	Jitex W	22	−7	27
9	Örebro SK W	22	−10	26
10	Enskede W	22	−8	25
11	Alingsås W	22	−9	22
12	Gamla Upsala W	22	−15	17
13	Sandviken W	22	−38	11
14	Häcken II W	22	−25	8