Örebro SK W v Göteborg W prediction · Elitettan

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

Örebro SK W 0–4 Göteborg W GÖTEBORG W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Göteborg W win~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.258

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Göteborg W win at 59%.
1′Much as we predicted: Göteborg W was 59% before kick-off and our model makes it 58% now. 0–0 · 21–20–58
1′KICK-OFF Örebro SK W v Göteborg W
22′🟨 YELLOW · 22' Göteborg W
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Göteborg W win: 59% at kick-off, 49% now
43′We said Göteborg W at 59%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 47%. 0–0 · 21–32–47
45′Göteborg W find the net on 45′. 0–1. 0–1 · 5–15–80
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Örebro SK W 0–1 Göteborg W
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Göteborg W win: 59% at kick-off, 80% now
45′HALF-TIME Örebro SK W 0–1 Göteborg W
46′We published Göteborg W at 59%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 5–15–80
46′SECOND HALF Örebro SK W 0–1 Göteborg W
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Göteborg W · On: A. Lindqvist · Off: F. Andersson
70′We published Göteborg W at 59%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 2–13–85
71′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Göteborg W · On: M. Svensson · Off: L. Johansson
71′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Örebro SK W · On: E. Jansson · Off: C. Karlsson
71′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Örebro SK W · On: E. Sjogren · Off: C. Eriksson
75′A goal for Göteborg W on 74′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–99
75′We published Göteborg W at 59%. Our model now makes it 99%. 0–2 · 0–1–99
75′⚽ GOAL · 74' Örebro SK W 0–2 Göteborg W
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Göteborg W win: 59% at kick-off, 99% now
80′M. Ohman scores for Göteborg W on 73′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–99
80′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Göteborg W · On: J. Melake · Off: E. Paljevic
81′Göteborg W score on 80′ to make it 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
81′We published Göteborg W at 59%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
81′Goals are coming at about the 3.3 we expected. 0–3 · 0–0–100
81′⚽ GOAL · 80' Örebro SK W 0–3 Göteborg W
85′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Göteborg W · On: L. Molund · Off: M. Ohman
94′Göteborg W find the net on 90′. 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
94′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Örebro SK W · On: J. Wikstrom · Off: N. Thorngren Corrected
94′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Örebro SK W · On: I. Ahlbom · Off: N. Torngren Corrected
94′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Örebro SK W · On: A. Hedman · Off: I. Afram Corrected
94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Örebro SK W 0–4 Göteborg W
95′4 goals already, more than the 3.3 we expected for the whole match. 0–4 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Örebro SK W 0–4 Göteborg W
FTÖrebro SK W 0–4 Göteborg W · Göteborg W win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Göteborg W are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Örebro SK W 21%, draw 20%, Göteborg W 59%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Örebro SK W v Göteborg WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Örebro SK W win21%

Draw20%

Göteborg W win59%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 22

Line-ups

Örebro SK W

Göteborg W

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Örebro SK W

Göteborg W

15Days since last match14

Last match: 3 Oct · Elitettan

Last match: 4 Oct · Elitettan

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Göteborg W	21	+28	45
9	Örebro SK W	21	−6	26

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Örebro SK W

Formation not confirmed

1 N. Allard

14 O. Okara

3 E. Cabander

2 M. Regnas

13 E. Tillenius

7 N. Thorngren

21 C. Eriksson

15 N. Torngren

17 I. Afram

23 E. Astrom

11 C. Karlsson

Coach · Dennis Gabrielsson

Substitutes

26 · M. Bergsten

6 · J. Wikstrom

8 · E. Jansson

18 · I. Ahlbom

19 · E. Sjogren

20 · R. Mannstrom

22 · A. Hedman

Göteborg W

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Carlsbogard

17 F. Andersson

7 M. Davin

16 M. Landin

14 C. Leffler

8 P. Zarassi

6 W. Lantz

24 E. Paljevic

21 L. Brogren

9 M. Ohman

11 L. Johansson

Coach · Marcus Lantz

Substitutes

3 · A. Lindqvist

4 · A. Ursem

12 · M. Svensson

15 · L. Hall

18 · L. Molund

23 · J. Melake

29 · M. Bergman-Lundin

Our number · göteborg w winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

59% The market–

Us59%

We make Göteborg W a 59% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–2.1, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Örebro SK W v Göteborg W~~1.18 – 2.12

~~Form · last six in Elitettan this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 26 v 45~~9 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Göteborg W win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Örebro SK W win	21%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Göteborg W win	59%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	63%	–	–
Both teams to score	59%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	42%	–	–
Örebro SK W or draw	41%	–	–
Örebro SK W clean sheet	13%	–	–
Göteborg W clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 9.3%

0123450 3.9 8.3 8.2 5.8 3.1 1 4.9 8.9 9.3 6.5 3.5 2 2.7 5.4 5.4 3.8 2.0 3 2.2 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Örebro SK W down, Göteborg W across0–5 goals a side shown (97.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,063 Elitettan matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Elitettan matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.2% of games this season, across 152 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2024 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Örebro SK W at home: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Göteborg W away: 2.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.18 goals for Örebro SK W, 2.12 for Göteborg W. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~GOT 2–1 ORE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Elitettan this season · since 29 Aug

ÖREBRO SK W

DDLLWW1–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–4 · 2–0 · 3–2

GÖTEBORG W

WWDLDW4–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–5 · 1–1 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Elfsborg W	22	+31	51
2	KIF Örebro W	22	+30	50
3	Göteborg W	21	+28	45
4	Linköping W	22	+11	43
5	Umeå W	22	+13	38
6	Trelleborg W	21	−1	32
7	Husqvarna W	22	−2	31
8	Jitex W	22	−7	27
9	Örebro SK W	21	−6	26
10	Alingsås W	22	−9	22
11	Enskede W	21	−10	22
12	Gamla Upsala W	22	−15	17
13	Sandviken W	22	−38	11
14	Häcken II W	22	−25	8