Örebro SK W v Elfsborg W prediction · Elitettan

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:53

Örebro SK W 1–4 Elfsborg W ELFSBORG W WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Elfsborg W win~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.270

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Elfsborg W win at 58%.
1′Much as we predicted: Elfsborg W was 58% before kick-off and our model makes it 57% now. 0–0 · 19–23–57
1′KICK-OFF Örebro SK W v Elfsborg W
14′Elfsborg W find the net on 13′. 0–1. 0–1 · 6–14–81
14′We published Elfsborg W at 58%. Our model now makes it 81%. 0–1 · 6–14–81
14′Elfsborg W ahead on 14′ through V. Lopez. 0–1. 0–1 · 6–14–81
14′⚽ GOAL · 13' Örebro SK W 0–1 Elfsborg W
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Elfsborg W win: 58% at kick-off, 81% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 5–14–81
31′A goal for Elfsborg W on 31′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 1–4–95
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Örebro SK W 0–2 Elfsborg W
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Elfsborg W win: 58% at kick-off, 95% now
32′We published Elfsborg W at 58%. Our model now makes it 96%. 0–2 · 1–4–96
44′Örebro SK W score on 43′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 4–14–82
44′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 4–14–82
44′⚽ GOAL · 43' Örebro SK W 1–2 Elfsborg W
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Elfsborg W win: 58% at kick-off, 82% now
45′HALF-TIME Örebro SK W 1–2 Elfsborg W
46′SECOND HALF Örebro SK W 1–2 Elfsborg W
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Elfsborg W · On: J. Brinck · Off: T. Skoglund
47′Elfsborg W find the net on 47′. 1–3. 1–3 · 0–3–97
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Örebro SK W 1–3 Elfsborg W
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Elfsborg W win: 58% at kick-off, 97% now
48′4 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 0–3–97
51′A goal for Elfsborg W on 50′ — 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
51′We published Elfsborg W at 58%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 1–4 · 0–0–100
51′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 1–4 · 0–0–100
51′⚽ GOAL · 50' Örebro SK W 1–4 Elfsborg W
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Elfsborg W win: 58% at kick-off, over 99% now
53′S. Jensen scores for Elfsborg W on 51′ — 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
62′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Örebro SK W · On: A. Hedman · Off: I. Afram
63′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Örebro SK W · On: E. Sjogren · Off: C. Eriksson
63′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Örebro SK W · On: S. Westerlund · Off: M. Regnas
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Elfsborg W · On: M. Josefsson · Off: S. Jensen
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Elfsborg W · On: E. Nilsson · Off: H. Gunnarsson
80′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Örebro SK W · On: I. Ahlbom · Off: E. Jansson
80′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Elfsborg W · On: H. Jiozon · Off: V. Metaj
FTFULL TIME Örebro SK W 1–4 Elfsborg W
FTÖrebro SK W 1–4 Elfsborg W · Elfsborg W win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Elfsborg W are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Örebro SK W 19%, draw 23%, Elfsborg W 58%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Örebro SK W v Elfsborg WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Örebro SK W win19%

Draw23%

Elfsborg W win58%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 23

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Örebro SK W

Elfsborg W

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Elitettan

Last match: 17 Oct · Elitettan

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · elfsborg w winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off

58% The market–

Us58%

We make Elfsborg W a 58% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.7, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Örebro SK W v Elfsborg W~~0.85 – 1.73

~~Form · last six in Elitettan this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 26 v 51~~9 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Elfsborg W win

Published at 55%, 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Örebro SK W win	19%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Elfsborg W win	58%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Örebro SK W or draw	42%	–	–
Örebro SK W clean sheet	19%	–	–
Elfsborg W clean sheet	43%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.4%

0123450 7.9 13.4 11.1 6.4 2.9 1 6.9 10.6 9.0 5.2 2.3 2 2.9 4.7 3.9 2.2 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Örebro SK W down, Elfsborg W across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,065 Elitettan matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Elitettan matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.8% of games this season, across 154 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2025 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Örebro SK W at home: 0.83 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Elfsborg W away: 3.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.85 goals for Örebro SK W, 1.73 for Elfsborg W. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~ELF 2–0 ORE · ORE 0–1 ELF · ELF 2–1 ORE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Elitettan this season · since 5 Sept

ÖREBRO SK W

DLLWWL1–1 · 0–1 · 1–4 · 2–0 · 3–2 · 0–4

ELFSBORG W

DWWDWW1–1 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 4–2 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Elfsborg W	22	+31	51
2	KIF Örebro W	22	+30	50
3	Göteborg W	22	+32	48
4	Linköping W	22	+11	43
5	Umeå W	22	+13	38
6	Trelleborg W	22	−3	32
7	Husqvarna W	22	−2	31
8	Jitex W	22	−7	27
9	Örebro SK W	22	−10	26
10	Enskede W	22	−8	25
11	Alingsås W	22	−9	22
12	Gamla Upsala W	22	−15	17
13	Sandviken W	22	−38	11
14	Häcken II W	22	−25	8