Linköping W v Umeå W prediction · Elitettan

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 13:56

Linköping W 0–0 Umeå W UMEÅ W WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Umeå W win~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.895

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Umeå W win at 43%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Umeå W 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 34–23–43
1′KICK-OFF Linköping W v Umeå W
40′🟨 YELLOW · 39' E. Viklund · Linköping W
44′Linköping W score on 43′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 65–23–12
44′We said Umeå W at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 12%. 1–0 · 65–23–12
44′⚽ GOAL · 43' Linköping W 1–0 Umeå W
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Umeå W win: 43% at kick-off, 12% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Linköping W win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Umeå W win 12%)
45′HALF-TIME Linköping W 0–0 Umeå W
46′GOAL DISALLOWED · 45+1' Linköping W
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+1' Umeå W win: 43% at kick-off, 35% now
46′SECOND HALF Linköping W 0–0 Umeå W
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Linköping W win 28%)
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.1 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 26–42–32
56′We said Umeå W at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 31%. 0–0 · 26–43–31
57′🟨 YELLOW · 56' A. Serepca · Linköping W
60′We said Umeå W at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 25–46–29
69′We said Umeå W at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 21–55–24
70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Linköping W · On: E. Alden · Off: E. Ringh
70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Linköping W · On: E. Lundin · Off: M. Fjellstrom
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Umeå W win: 43% at kick-off, 23% now
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Umeå W · On: M. Persson · Off: A. Forss
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Umeå W · On: T. Sahlman · Off: T. Sorlen
76′We said Umeå W at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 0–0 · 16–66–18
79′PENALTY MISSED · 78' Linköping W
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Umeå W win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
84′We said Umeå W at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 8–82–9
84′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Linköping W · On: E. Bulow · Off: M. Kitamura
84′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Umeå W · On: J. Holmgren · Off: E. Fjallstrom
91′We said Umeå W at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–4
91′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Umeå W · On: T. Ahlen · Off: C. Larsson
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+2' Umeå W win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
FTFULL TIME Linköping W 0–0 Umeå W
FTLinköping W 0–0 Umeå W · Umeå W win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Umeå W are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Linköping W 34%, draw 23%, Umeå W 43%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Linköping W v Umeå WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Linköping W win34%

Draw23%

Umeå W win43%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 22

Line-ups

Linköping W

Umeå W

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Linköping W

Umeå W

15Days since last match13

Last match: 2 Oct · Elitettan

Last match: 4 Oct · Elitettan

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Linköping W	21	+11	42
5	Umeå W	21	+13	37

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Linköping W

Formation not confirmed

20 S. Ganzhorn

3 P. Doran

6 N. Bond-Flasza

8 P. Winblad

9 M. Fjellstrom

11 E. Viklund

14 E. Ringh

17 M. Kitamura

18 A. Serepca

19 A. Plantin

24 A. DiOrio

Coach · Charlie Mitchell

Substitutes

12 · E. Alden

13 · E. Lundin

15 · L. Dag

21 · E. Bulow

26 · E. Lokrantz

27 · K. Rengfors

Umeå W

Formation not confirmed

1 E. Bjorklund

2 T. Sorlen

3 L. Tjarnberg

9 L. M. Westbom

11 A. Nygren

13 L. Pettersson

14 I. Goldmann

15 C. Larsson

19 E. Fjallstrom

21 A. Forss

29 I. Amcoff

Coach · Andre Ghanbari

Substitutes

5 · J. Holmgren

7 · T. Sahlman

12 · T. Ahlen

20 · T. Heikkinen

23 · M. Persson

24 · E. Morlind

Our number · umeå w winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Umeå W a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Linköping W v Umeå W~~1.43 – 1.64

~~Form · last six in Elitettan this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D0 L4 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 42 v 37~~4 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Linköping W win	34%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Umeå W win	43%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	59%	–	–
Both teams to score	60%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	37%	–	–
Linköping W or draw	57%	–	–
Linköping W clean sheet	20%	–	–
Umeå W clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.3%

0123450 4.7 8.2 6.3 3.5 1 7.2 10.3 8.5 4.7 2.0 2 4.8 7.5 6.0 3.3 3 2.3 3.6 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Linköping W down, Umeå W across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,058 Elitettan matches up to 4 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Elitettan matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.8% of games this season, across 147 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 4.33 goals a meeting; 3 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Linköping W at home: 2.17 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Umeå W away: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for Linköping W, 1.64 for Umeå W. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~4.33

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~UME 1–2 LIN · LIN 7–0 UME · UME 0–3 LIN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Elitettan this season · since 29 Aug

LINKÖPING W

LWLWLL1–4 · 2–1 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 1–2

UMEÅ W

LDWWWW1–2 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 5–1 · 2–1 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Elfsborg W	21	+29	48
2	KIF Örebro W	21	+25	47
3	Göteborg W	21	+28	45
4	Linköping W	21	+11	42
5	Umeå W	21	+13	37
6	Trelleborg W	21	−1	32
7	Husqvarna W	21	−4	28
8	Jitex W	21	−2	27
9	Örebro SK W	21	−6	26
10	Enskede W	21	−10	22
11	Alingsås W	21	−11	19
12	Gamla Upsala W	21	−13	17
13	Sandviken W	21	−36	11
14	Häcken II W	21	−23	8