Enskede W v Trelleborg W prediction · Elitettan

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

Enskede W 3–1 Trelleborg W TRELLEBORG W WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Trelleborg W win~~48%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.782

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.722

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Trelleborg W win at 48%.
1′Much as we predicted: Trelleborg W was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 29–22–48
1′KICK-OFF Enskede W v Trelleborg W
15′A goal for Trelleborg W on 15′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 12–17–71
15′We published Trelleborg W at 48%. Our model now makes it 71%. 0–1 · 12–17–71
15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Enskede W 0–1 Trelleborg W
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Trelleborg W win: 48% at kick-off, 71% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 0–1 · 10–18–72
34′Enskede W score on 34′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 27–30–42
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Enskede W 1–1 Trelleborg W
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Trelleborg W win: 48% at kick-off, 42% now
44′35′: L. Haggkvist on the scoresheet for Enskede W, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 26–35–39
44′Enskede W find the net on 44′. 2–1. 2–1 · 61–25–15
44′We said Trelleborg W at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 15%. 2–1 · 61–25–15
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Enskede W 2–1 Trelleborg W
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Trelleborg W win: 48% at kick-off, 15% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Enskede W win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Trelleborg W win 15%)
45′We said Trelleborg W at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 2–1 · 61–25–14
45′HALF-TIME Enskede W 2–1 Trelleborg W
46′Enskede W ahead on 45′ through N. Lundstrom. 2–1. 2–1 · 61–25–14
46′SECOND HALF Enskede W 2–1 Trelleborg W
58′We said Trelleborg W at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 2–1 · 66–24–9
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Trelleborg W win: 48% at kick-off, 8% now
63′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Trelleborg W
72′We said Trelleborg W at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–1 · 76–20–4
75′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Enskede W · On: E. Sjoberg · Off: J. Mattsson
76′A goal for Enskede W on 75′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 97–3–0
76′4 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 97–3–0
76′⚽ GOAL · 75' Enskede W 3–1 Trelleborg W
FTFULL TIME Enskede W 3–1 Trelleborg W
FTEnskede W 3–1 Trelleborg W · Trelleborg W win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Trelleborg W are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Enskede W 29%, draw 22%, Trelleborg W 48%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Enskede W v Trelleborg WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Enskede W win29%

Draw22%

Trelleborg W win48%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 22

Line-ups

Enskede W

Trelleborg W

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Enskede W

Trelleborg W

10Days since last match15

Last match: 8 Oct · Svenska Cupen - Women

Last match: 3 Oct · Elitettan

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Trelleborg W	21	−1	32
11	Enskede W	21	−10	22

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Enskede W

Formation not confirmed

3 V. Heikfolk

4 L. Bogren

6 S. Paulsson

7 S. Lundstrom

8 A. Frank

14 T. Pingani

15 N. Lundstrom

21 J. Mattsson

24 L. Haggkvist

25 N. Karlsson

55 L. Fock

Coach · Johan Landin

Substitutes

1 · E. Netz

2 · M. Liwendahl

5 · F. Thorngren

12 · T. Krusnell

17 · E. Sjoberg

18 · I. Hanna

Trelleborg W

Formation not confirmed

3 T. Birgerud

5 S. Ollerstam

6 M. Stojanovska

8 A. Olsson

9 R. Karlsson

12 E. Persson Welin

14 J. Lilliehook

18 O. Strid

22 H. Persson

26 W. Delerud

35 E. Lenir

Coach · Joakim Felldin

Substitutes

1 · C. Wiklund

4 · A. Hed

10 · K. Kempe Kivi

20 · E. Boije

23 · A. Thorisson

Our number · trelleborg w winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 18 Oct 04:18 · locked at kick-off

48% The market43%

Us48%

~~Market~~43%

We make Trelleborg W a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Enskede W v Trelleborg W~~1.36 – 1.82

~~Form · last six in Elitettan this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 22 v 32~~11 v 6

~~The market · Trelleborg W win~~43% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Trelleborg W win The market, margin stripped

Published at 49%, 48% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Enskede W win	29%	31%	−2
Draw	22%	25%	−3
Trelleborg W win	48%	43%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	61%	60%	+1
Both teams to score	60%	62%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	81%	82%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	39%	40%	−1
Enskede W or draw	52%	57%	−5
Enskede W clean sheet	17%	–	–
Trelleborg W clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.9%

0123450 4.4 8.1 6.9 4.2 1 6.2 9.9 8.9 5.4 2.5 2 4.0 6.8 5.9 3.6 3 3.1 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Enskede W down, Trelleborg W across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,063 Elitettan matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Elitettan matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.2% of games this season, across 152 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Enskede W at home: 0.83 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Trelleborg W away: 0.50 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.36 goals for Enskede W, 1.82 for Trelleborg W. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~TRE 1–3 ENS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Elitettan this season · since 29 Aug

ENSKEDE W

DLLLLW2–2 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 1–5 · 1–2 · 2–1

TRELLEBORG W

LDDWWL0–1 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 2–4

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Elfsborg W	22	+31	51
2	KIF Örebro W	22	+30	50
3	Göteborg W	21	+28	45
4	Linköping W	22	+11	43
5	Umeå W	22	+13	38
6	Trelleborg W	21	−1	32
7	Husqvarna W	22	−2	31
8	Jitex W	22	−7	27
9	Örebro SK W	21	−6	26
10	Alingsås W	22	−9	22
11	Enskede W	21	−10	22
12	Gamla Upsala W	22	−15	17
13	Sandviken W	22	−38	11
14	Häcken II W	22	−25	8