Elfsborg W v Gamla Upsala W prediction · Elitettan

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 14:49

Elfsborg W 2–0 Gamla Upsala W ELFSBORG W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Elfsborg W win~~70%

~~The market said~~80%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.134

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.060

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Elfsborg W win at 70%.
1′Much as we predicted: Elfsborg W was 70% before kick-off and our model makes it 70% now. 0–0 · 70–18–12
1′KICK-OFF Elfsborg W v Gamla Upsala W
12′Elfsborg W score on 11′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 87–9–3
12′We published Elfsborg W at 70%. Our model now makes it 87%. 1–0 · 87–9–3
12′⚽ GOAL · 11' Elfsborg W 1–0 Gamla Upsala W
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Elfsborg W win: 70% at kick-off, 87% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 1–0 · 87–10–3
42′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Gamla Upsala W
45′Elfsborg W ahead on 44′ through V. Lopez. 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
45′We published Elfsborg W at 70%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
45′⚽ GOAL · 44' Elfsborg W 2–0 Gamla Upsala W · V. Lopez (assist V. Metaj)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Elfsborg W win: 70% at kick-off, 98% now
45′HALF-TIME Elfsborg W 2–0 Gamla Upsala W
46′SECOND HALF Elfsborg W 2–0 Gamla Upsala W
60′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Gamla Upsala W · On: H. Sjostrom · Off: T. Hallsen
60′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Gamla Upsala W · On: H. Eriksson · Off: B. Tihi
68′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Elfsborg W
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Elfsborg W · On: H. Jiozon · Off: H. Gunnarsson
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Elfsborg W · On: H. Petersson · Off: V. Metaj
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Elfsborg W · On: E. Nilsson · Off: J. Brinck
76′We published Elfsborg W at 70%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Elfsborg W win: 70% at kick-off, over 99% now
81′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Gamla Upsala W · On: H. Karlsson · Off: M. Garpenbeck
81′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Gamla Upsala W · On: S. Ohlund · Off: A. Miettunen
82′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Gamla Upsala W
85′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Gamla Upsala W · On: A. Ahlsson · Off: M. Andersson
93′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Elfsborg W · On: J. Gilkes · Off: V. Lopez
93′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Elfsborg W · On: M. Josefsson · Off: S. Jensen
FTFULL TIME Elfsborg W 2–0 Gamla Upsala W
FTElfsborg W 2–0 Gamla Upsala W · Elfsborg W win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Elfsborg W are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Elfsborg W 70%, draw 18%, Gamla Upsala W 12%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Elfsborg W v Gamla Upsala WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Elfsborg W win70%

Draw18%

Gamla Upsala W win12%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 22

Line-ups

Elfsborg W

Gamla Upsala W

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Elfsborg W

Gamla Upsala W

9Days since last match14

Last match: 8 Oct · Svenska Cupen - Women

Last match: 3 Oct · Elitettan

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Elfsborg W

Formation not confirmed

1 T. Torstensson

19 J. Brinck

5 M. Martensson

13 T. Loren

21 T. Skoglund

25 I. Bergstrom

6 H. Gunnarsson

9 V. Lopez

11 L. Nystrom

15 V. Metaj

10 S. Jensen

Coach · Ismet Tursic

Substitutes

30 · F. Ek

3 · N. Andersson

4 · J. Gilkes

12 · H. Petersson

23 · E. Nilsson

7 · H. Jiozon

22 · M. Josefsson

Gamla Upsala W

Formation not confirmed

13 T. Fridberg

4 M. Garpenbeck

5 J. Edholm

6 E. Lilliehook

8 E. Costow

12 T. Hallsen

14 B. Tihi

18 L. Matsgard

19 A. Miettunen

22 M. Andersson

24 S. Nilsson

Coach · Rikard Ostergren

Substitutes

7 · H. Sjostrom

11 · S. Ohlund

16 · H. Karlsson

17 · H. Eriksson

21 · A. Ahlsson

Our number · elfsborg w winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

70% The market80%

Us70%

~~Market~~80%

We make Elfsborg W a 70% chance to win. The market has them at 80%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Elfsborg W v Gamla Upsala W~~2.23 – 0.76

~~Form · last six in Elitettan this season · since 28 Aug~~W4 D2 L0 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 48 v 17~~1 v 12

~~The market · Elfsborg W win~~80% · ours 70%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Elfsborg W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 80% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Elfsborg W win	70%	80%	−10
Draw	18%	13%	+5
Gamla Upsala W win	12%	7%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	57%	66%	−9
Both teams to score	46%	45%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	79%	83%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	35%	46%	−11
Elfsborg W or draw	88%	93%	−5
Elfsborg W clean sheet	48%	–	–
Gamla Upsala W clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 12.3%

0123450 5.3 4.3 1 11.8 8.1 3.2 2 12.3 8.9 3.5 3 9.1 6.5 2.5 4 5.2 3.7 5 2.5

under 2% 5% 12%+Elfsborg W down, Gamla Upsala W across0–5 goals a side shown (96.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,058 Elitettan matches up to 4 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Elitettan matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.8% of games this season, across 147 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2025 in every competition we cover, 2.67 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Elfsborg W at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Gamla Upsala W away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.23 goals for Elfsborg W, 0.76 for Gamla Upsala W. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~GAM 0–2 ELF · ELF 2–1 GAM · GAM 2–1 ELF

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Elitettan this season · since 28 Aug

ELFSBORG W

WDWWDW2–1 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 4–2

GAMLA UPSALA W

LWWDLL1–3 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Elfsborg W	21	+29	48
2	KIF Örebro W	21	+25	47
3	Göteborg W	21	+28	45
4	Linköping W	21	+11	42
5	Umeå W	21	+13	37
6	Trelleborg W	21	−1	32
7	Husqvarna W	21	−4	28
8	Jitex W	21	−2	27
9	Örebro SK W	21	−6	26
10	Enskede W	21	−10	22
11	Alingsås W	21	−11	19
12	Gamla Upsala W	21	−13	17
13	Sandviken W	21	−36	11
14	Häcken II W	21	−23	8