Elfsborg W v Alingsås W prediction · Elitettan

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Elfsborg WDrawAlingsås W

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Elfsborg W 57%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Elfsborg W are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Elfsborg W 57%, draw 25%, Alingsås W 18%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Elfsborg W v Alingsås WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Elfsborg W win57%

Draw25%

Alingsås W win18%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 17:30

RoundMatchday 24

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Elfsborg W

Alingsås W

6Days since last match6

Last match: 24 Oct · Elitettan

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · elfsborg w winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · updated 25 Oct 00:25 · locked at kick-off

57% The market–

Us57%

We make Elfsborg W a 57% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Elfsborg W v Alingsås W~~1.57 – 0.74

~~Form · last six in Elitettan this season · since 12 Sept~~W5 D1 L0 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 54 v 22~~1 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Elfsborg W win

Published at 55%, 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Elfsborg W win	57%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Alingsås W win	18%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	41%	–	–
Both teams to score	40%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	66%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	21%	–	–
Elfsborg W or draw	82%	–	–
Elfsborg W clean sheet	49%	–	–
Alingsås W clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.7%

0123450 10.4 7.5 2.8 1 15.7 10.8 4.2 2 12.0 8.4 3.2 3 6.4 4.4 4 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Elfsborg W down, Alingsås W across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,070 Elitettan matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Elitettan matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.2% of games this season, across 159 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Elfsborg W at home: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Alingsås W away: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.57 goals for Elfsborg W, 0.74 for Alingsås W. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ALI 0–3 ELF · ALI 0–1 ELF

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Elitettan this season · since 12 Sept

ELFSBORG W

WWDWWW3–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 4–2 · 2–0 · 4–1

ALINGSÅS W

WDLLWL1–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Elfsborg W	23	+34	54
2	KIF Örebro W	23	+32	53
3	Göteborg W	23	+34	51
4	Linköping W	22	+11	43
5	Umeå W	23	+17	41
6	Husqvarna W	23	−2	32
7	Trelleborg W	23	−7	32
8	Jitex W	23	−7	28
9	Örebro SK W	23	−13	26
10	Enskede W	23	−10	25
11	Alingsås W	23	−11	22
12	Gamla Upsala W	22	−15	17
13	Sandviken W	22	−38	11
14	Häcken II W	22	−25	8