Alingsås W v Häcken II W prediction · Elitettan

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

Alingsås W 2–0 Häcken II W ALINGSÅS W WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Alingsås W win~~54%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.315

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.380

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Alingsås W win at 54%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Alingsås W 54% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 54–24–22
1′KICK-OFF Alingsås W v Häcken II W
11′A goal for Alingsås W on 11′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 78–15–7
11′We said Alingsås W at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 78%. 1–0 · 78–15–7
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Alingsås W 1–0 Häcken II W
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Alingsås W win: 54% at kick-off, 78% now
12′Alingsås W score on 12′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 93–5–2
12′We said Alingsås W at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 2–0 · 93–5–2
12′🟨 YELLOW · 12' Häcken II W
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Alingsås W 2–0 Häcken II W
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Alingsås W win: 54% at kick-off, 93% now
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Alingsås W win: 54% at kick-off, 94% now
24′SUBSTITUTION · 20' Alingsås W · On: A. Bjorkqvist · Off: M. Hansson
31′We said Alingsås W at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
45′HALF-TIME Alingsås W 2–0 Häcken II W
46′SECOND HALF Alingsås W 2–0 Häcken II W
50′12′: H. Savhult on the scoresheet for Alingsås W, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–1
50′We said Alingsås W at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 2–0 · 96–3–1
51′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Häcken II W · On: B. Hultback · Off: H. Ryd
56′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 2–0 · 97–3–0
66′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Alingsås W · On: I. E. Gabrielsson · Off: P. Silier
66′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Alingsås W · On: M. Ragnewall · Off: E. Bjorkman
80′We said Alingsås W at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Alingsås W · On: N. Carlman · Off: H. Savhult
FTFULL TIME Alingsås W 2–0 Häcken II W
FTAlingsås W 2–0 Häcken II W · Alingsås W win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Alingsås W are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Alingsås W 54%, draw 24%, Häcken II W 22%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Alingsås W v Häcken II WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Alingsås W win54%

Draw24%

Häcken II W win22%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 22

Line-ups

Alingsås W

Häcken II W

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Alingsås W

Häcken II W

9Days since last match14

Last match: 8 Oct · Svenska Cupen - Women

Last match: 3 Oct · Elitettan

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Alingsås W	21	−11	19
14	Häcken II W	21	−23	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Alingsås W

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Melen

4 P. Silier

23 M. Hansson

3 O. Grindemark

6 A. Inedahl

9 H. Savhult

7 M. Laukka

2 K. Nyberg

15 K. Wennergren

10 A. Oberg

21 E. Bjorkman

Coach · Peo Haggstrom

Substitutes

22 · T. Olin

5 · A. Bjorkqvist

8 · N. Carlman

12 · M. Ragnewall

14 · I. E. Gabrielsson

17 · V. Purmonen

20 · T. Proder

Häcken II W

Formation not confirmed

1 D. Hellwig

3 A. Aurelius

8 H. Ryd

9 E. Hjartardottir

10 E. Migas

15 A. Svanberg

19 L. Sternvik

20 S. Lundberg

21 A. Maric

23 F. Hopkins

25 N. Kjellman

Coach · Patrick Migas

Substitutes

5 · E. Lennartsson

11 · F. Cela

17 · A. Hoglund

18 · L. Folkow

24 · B. Hultback

26 · V. Nystrom

28 · A. Nikolic

Our number · alingsås w winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

54% The market50%

Us54%

~~Market~~50%

We make Alingsås W a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Alingsås W v Häcken II W~~1.66 – 0.94

~~Form · last six in Elitettan this season · since 28 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 19 v 8~~11 v 14

~~The market · Alingsås W win~~50% · ours 54%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Alingsås W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Alingsås W win	54%	50%	+4
Draw	24%	25%	−1
Häcken II W win	22%	25%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	48%	55%	−7
Both teams to score	48%	56%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	72%	76%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	27%	34%	−7
Alingsås W or draw	78%	75%	+3
Alingsås W clean sheet	40%	–	–
Häcken II W clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.8%

0123450 7.8 7.5 3.4 1 12.8 10.8 5.2 2 10.0 9.1 4.3 3 5.6 5.1 2.4 4 2.4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Alingsås W down, Häcken II W across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,058 Elitettan matches up to 4 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Elitettan matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.8% of games this season, across 147 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2023 in every competition we cover, 3.33 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Alingsås W at home: 0.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Häcken II W away: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.66 goals for Alingsås W, 0.94 for Häcken II W. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~3.33

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~HAC 0–1 ALI · HAC 0–5 ALI · ALI 3–1 HAC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Elitettan this season · since 28 Aug

ALINGSÅS W

DLWDLL1–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–2

HÄCKEN II W

LWLLDL1–2 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 2–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Elfsborg W	21	+29	48
2	KIF Örebro W	21	+25	47
3	Göteborg W	21	+28	45
4	Linköping W	22	+11	43
5	Umeå W	22	+13	38
6	Trelleborg W	21	−1	32
7	Husqvarna W	21	−4	28
8	Jitex W	21	−2	27
9	Örebro SK W	21	−6	26
10	Enskede W	21	−10	22
11	Alingsås W	21	−11	19
12	Gamla Upsala W	21	−13	17
13	Sandviken W	21	−36	11
14	Häcken II W	21	−23	8