Västra Frölunda v Torslanda prediction · Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 14:34

Västra Frölunda 0–1 Torslanda VÄSTRA FRÖLUNDA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Västra Frölunda win~~51%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.802

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.756

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 6 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Västra Frölunda win at 51%.
1′KICK-OFF Västra Frölunda v Torslanda
2′Little has changed for our model: Västra Frölunda 51% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 50–21–29
3′Little has changed for our model: Västra Frölunda 51% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 50–21–29
45′HALF-TIME Västra Frölunda 0–0 Torslanda
46′SECOND HALF Västra Frölunda 0–0 Torslanda
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Västra Frölunda 0–1 Torslanda
58′⚽ GOAL · 55' Västra Frölunda 0–1 Torslanda
FTFULL TIME Västra Frölunda 0–1 Torslanda
FTVästra Frölunda 0–1 Torslanda · Västra Frölunda win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Västra Frölunda win51%

Draw21%

Torslanda win29%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 12:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Västra Frölunda

Torslanda

7Days since last match9

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Västra Frölunda	24	+6	37
10	Torslanda	24	−3	28

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · västra frölunda winPublished 11 Oct 12:12

51% The market46%

Us51%

~~Market~~46%

We make Västra Frölunda a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–1.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · västra frölunda win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Västra Frölunda win	51%	46%	+4
Draw	21%	24%	−3
Torslanda win	29%	30%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	71%	66%	+5
Both teams to score	69%	67%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	88%	82%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	51%	46%	+5
Västra Frölunda or draw	71%	70%	+1
Västra Frölunda clean sheet	21%	–	–
Torslanda clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.4%

0123450 2.6 3.9 3.1 1 5.3 8.1 6.3 3.4 2 5.5 8.4 6.6 3.5 3 3.9 6.0 4.7 2.5 4 2.2 3.3 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Västra Frölunda down, Torslanda across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,113 Division 2 - Västra Götaland matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Division 2 - Västra Götaland matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.6% of games this season, across 173 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 3.20 goals a meeting; 3 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Västra Frölunda at home: 2.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Torslanda away: 2.00 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.15 goals for Västra Frölunda, 1.59 for Torslanda. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.20

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~TOR 1–1 VAS · TOR 2–4 VAS · VAS 2–1 TOR · VAS 2–0 TOR

Form · last six in Division 2 - Västra Götaland

VÄSTRA FRÖLUNDA

LWLLWD1–2 · 3–1 · 0–3 · 1–4 · 2–0 · 1–1

TORSLANDA

LLLWLW1–3 · 2–5 · 2–3 · 3–1 · 1–3 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Landvetter IS	25	+24	57
2	Dalstorps	25	+22	49
3	Jonsered	25	+2	42
4	Hestrafor	24	+9	41
5	Västra Frölunda	24	+6	37
6	Böljan	25	+6	37
7	Lindome	25	+4	37
8	Qviding FIF	25	+1	37
9	Onsala	25	−3	33
10	Torslanda	24	−3	28
11	Kongahälla	25	−11	27
12	Åstorp	25	−13	26
13	Galtabacks	24	−8	20
14	Astrio	25	−36	10