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Torslanda v Onsala

Torslanda

3–2Full time

Onsala

Division 2 - Västra Götaland · SUN 18 OCT · Torslandavallen

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

Torslanda 3–2 Onsala TORSLANDA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Torslanda win~~41%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.531

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.495

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Torslanda win at 41%.
2′Much as we predicted: Torslanda was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–23–36
2′KICK-OFF Torslanda v Onsala
7′A goal for Torslanda on 7′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 64–19–17
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Torslanda 1–0 Onsala
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Torslanda win: 41% at kick-off, 64% now
8′We published Torslanda at 41%. Our model now makes it 65%. 1–0 · 65–19–17
19′Onsala score on 19′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 39–27–35
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Torslanda 1–1 Onsala
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Torslanda win: 41% at kick-off, 39% now
45′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 1–1 · 34–35–31
45′HALF-TIME Torslanda 1–1 Onsala
46′SECOND HALF Torslanda 1–1 Onsala
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Torslanda win 33%)
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Torslanda win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
58′Onsala find the net on 58′. 1–2. 1–2 · 8–22–70
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Torslanda 1–2 Onsala
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Torslanda win: 41% at kick-off, 8% now
58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Onsala win is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Draw 22%)
59′We said Torslanda at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 7%. 1–2 · 7–22–71
63′Onsala ahead on 59′ through M. Rundback. 1–2. 1–2 · 6–21–73
69′We said Torslanda at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–20–76
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Torslanda win: 41% at kick-off, 1% now
88′A goal for Torslanda on 88′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 7–87–6
88′4 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 7–87–6
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Torslanda 2–2 Onsala
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Torslanda win: 41% at kick-off, 7% now
88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' Draw is now our likeliest result at 87% (was Onsala win 6%)
91′Torslanda score on 90′ to make it 3–2. 3–2 · 96–4–0
91′We published Torslanda at 41%. Our model now makes it 96%. 3–2 · 96–4–0
91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Torslanda 3–2 Onsala
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+1' Torslanda win: 41% at kick-off, 96% now
91′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+1' Torslanda win is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Draw 4%)
92′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 97–3–0
FTFULL TIME Torslanda 3–2 Onsala
FTTorslanda 3–2 Onsala · Torslanda win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Torslanda are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Torslanda 41%, draw 23%, Onsala 36%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Torslanda v OnsalaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Torslanda win41%

Draw23%

Onsala win36%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundVästra Götaland · matchday 26

VenueTorslandavallen

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Torslanda

Onsala

7Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Last match: 10 Oct · Division 2 - Västra Götaland

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Onsala	25	−3	33
10	Torslanda	25	−2	31

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · torslanda winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

41% The market43%

Us41%

~~Market~~43%

We make Torslanda a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.7–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Torslanda v Onsala~~1.67 – 1.55

~~Form · last six in Division 2 - Västra Götaland this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 31 v 33~~10 v 9

~~The market · Torslanda win~~43% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Torslanda win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Torslanda win	41%	43%	−2
Draw	23%	25%	−2
Onsala win	36%	32%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	62%	67%	−5
Both teams to score	63%	69%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	82%	83%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	40%	47%	−7
Torslanda or draw	64%	68%	−4
Torslanda clean sheet	22%	–	–
Onsala clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.2%

0123450 4.3 6.4 4.9 2.5 1 6.9 10.2 7.8 4.1 2 5.6 8.3 6.4 3.3 3 3.1 4.7 3.6 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Torslanda down, Onsala across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,115 Division 2 - Västra Götaland matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division 2 - Västra Götaland matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.4% of games this season, across 175 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 6 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Torslanda at home: 1.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Onsala away: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.67 goals for Torslanda, 1.55 for Onsala. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 8

~~Both scored~~6 of 8

~~Last meetings~~ONS 1–1 TOR · TOR 3–1 ONS · TOR 2–1 ONS · ONS 0–0 TOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Division 2 - Västra Götaland this season · since 5 Sept

TORSLANDA

LLWLWW2–5 · 2–3 · 3–1 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 1–0

ONSALA

LWWLWW1–3 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Landvetter IS	25	+24	57
2	Dalstorps	25	+22	49
3	Jonsered	25	+2	42
4	Hestrafor	25	+7	41
5	Böljan	25	+6	37
6	Västra Frölunda	25	+5	37
7	Lindome	25	+4	37
8	Qviding FIF	25	+1	37
9	Onsala	25	−3	33
10	Torslanda	25	−2	31
11	Kongahälla	25	−11	27
12	Åstorp	25	−13	26
13	Galtabacks	25	−6	23
14	Astrio	25	−36	10