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Onsala v Åstorp

Onsala

2–1Full time

Åstorp

Division 2 - Västra Götaland · SAT 10 OCT · Rydets IP

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Onsala 2–1 Åstorp ONSALA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Onsala win~~50%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.374

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.501

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 7 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Onsala win at 50%.
17′Onsala find the net on 1′. 1–0. 1–0 · 75–17–9
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Onsala win: 50% at kick-off, 75% now
39′A goal for Onsala on 37′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
39′⚽ GOAL · 37' Onsala 2–0 Åstorp
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Onsala win: 50% at kick-off, 94% now
45′⚽ GOAL · 46' Onsala 2–1 Åstorp
45′HALF-TIME Onsala 2–1 Åstorp
47′SECOND HALF Onsala 2–1 Åstorp
FTFULL TIME Onsala 2–1 Åstorp
FTOnsala 2–1 Åstorp · Onsala win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Onsala win50%

Draw24%

Åstorp win26%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Rydets IP

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · onsala winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

50% The market42%

Us50%

~~Market~~42%

We make Onsala a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · onsala win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Onsala win	50%	42%	+8
Draw	24%	25%	−1
Åstorp win	26%	33%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	54%	62%	−8
Both teams to score	55%	64%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	77%	81%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	32%	42%	−9
Onsala or draw	74%	67%	+7
Onsala clean sheet	32%	–	–
Åstorp clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.1%

0123450 6.2 6.6 3.9 1 9.8 11.1 6.3 2.5 2 8.3 9.3 5.3 2.1 3 4.8 5.3 3.1 4 2.1 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Onsala down, Åstorp across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,109 Division 2 - Västra Götaland matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Division 2 - Västra Götaland matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.3% of games this season, across 169 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Onsala at home: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Åstorp away: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.71 goals for Onsala, 1.15 for Åstorp. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 3

~~Both scored~~3 of 3

~~Last meetings~~AST 1–1 ONS · ONS 1–1 AST · AST 1–1 ONS

Form · last six in Division 2 - Västra Götaland

ONSALA

LLWWLW0–2 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 1–0

ÅSTORP

LWLWLL1–2 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 1–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Landvetter IS	24	+23	54
2	Dalstorps	24	+21	46
3	Jonsered	24	+3	42
4	Hestrafor	24	+9	41
5	Västra Frölunda	24	+6	37
6	Böljan	25	+6	37
7	Lindome	25	+4	37
8	Qviding FIF	24	0	34
9	Onsala	24	−4	30
10	Torslanda	24	−3	28
11	Kongahälla	24	−10	27
12	Åstorp	24	−12	26
13	Galtabacks	24	−8	20
14	Astrio	24	−35	10