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Lindome v Böljan

Lindome

1–3Full time

Böljan

Division 2 - Västra Götaland · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 21:00

Lindome 1–3 Böljan LINDOME WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lindome win~~51%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.829

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.917

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lindome win at 51%.
1′KICK-OFF Lindome v Böljan
2′Little has changed for our model: Lindome 51% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 51–22–27
7′Böljan find the net on 7′. 0–0. 0–0 · 50–23–27
7′Böljan find the net on 7′. 0–1. 0–1 · 28–22–50
8′Böljan find the net on 7′. 0–1. 0–1 · 28–22–50
9′Böljan find the net on 7′. 0–1. 0–1 · 27–22–50
10′Böljan find the net on 7′. 0–1. 0–1 · 27–22–50
11′Böljan find the net on 7′. 0–1. 0–1 · 27–22–51
11′⚽ GOAL · 7' Lindome 0–1 Böljan
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' Lindome win: 51% at kick-off, 27% now
11′THE CALL SWINGS · 11' Böljan win is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Lindome win 27%)
15′We said Lindome at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 26%. 0–1 · 26–23–51
25′We said Lindome at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 0–1 · 23–24–53
25′⚽ GOAL · 7' Lindome 0–1 Böljan · M. Kocanovic
36′We said Lindome at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–25–56
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Lindome win: 51% at kick-off, 19% now
45′HALF-TIME Lindome 0–1 Böljan
46′SECOND HALF Lindome 0–1 Böljan
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Lindome 0–2 Böljan
66′PENALTY MISSED · 66' Lindome
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Lindome 1–2 Böljan
77′⚽ GOAL · 76' Lindome 1–3 Böljan
89′⚽ GOAL · 7' Lindome 1–3 Böljan · M. Kocanovic
89′⚽ GOAL · 47' Lindome 1–3 Böljan · L. Paulsen
89′PENALTY MISSED · 65' K. Landsten · Lindome
89′⚽ GOAL · 75' Lindome 1–3 Böljan · D. Zejnullahu
89′⚽ GOAL · 76' Lindome 1–3 Böljan · M. Kocanovic
90′⚽ GOAL · 7' Lindome 1–3 Böljan · M. Kocanovic
90′⚽ GOAL · 47' Lindome 1–3 Böljan · L. Paulsen
90′PENALTY MISSED · 65' K. Landsten · Lindome
90′⚽ GOAL · 75' Lindome 1–3 Böljan · D. Zejnullahu
90′⚽ GOAL · 76' Lindome 1–3 Böljan · M. Kocanovic
FTLindome 1–3 Böljan · Lindome win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Lindome win51%

Draw22%

Böljan win28%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 18:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lindome winPublished 9 Oct 18:34

51% The market53%

Us51%

~~Market~~53%

We make Lindome a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.0–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · lindome win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 50% to 53% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lindome win	51%	53%	−2
Draw	22%	23%	−2
Böljan win	28%	24%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	66%	67%	−1
Both teams to score	65%	66%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	85%	83%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	45%	48%	−3
Lindome or draw	72%	76%	−4
Lindome clean sheet	25%	–	–
Böljan clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.2%

0123450 3.5 4.7 3.4 1 6.5 9.2 6.4 3.1 2 6.5 9.0 6.3 3.1 3 4.3 6.0 4.3 2.1 4 2.2 3.1 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lindome down, Böljan across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,108 Division 2 - Västra Götaland matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Division 2 - Västra Götaland matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.1% of games this season, across 168 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 4.67 goals a meeting; 3 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lindome at home: 2.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Böljan away: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.01 goals for Lindome, 1.43 for Böljan. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~4.67

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 3

~~Both scored~~3 of 3

~~Last meetings~~BOL 2–3 LIN · BOL 1–3 LIN · LIN 3–2 BOL

Form · last six in Division 2 - Västra Götaland

LINDOME

WLLLLW2–1 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 2–3 · 4–3

BÖLJAN

WWLDDL5–0 · 5–2 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Landvetter IS	24	+23	54
2	Dalstorps	24	+21	46
3	Jonsered	24	+3	42
4	Hestrafor	24	+9	41
5	Lindome	24	+6	37
6	Västra Frölunda	24	+6	37
7	Böljan	24	+4	34
8	Qviding FIF	24	0	34
9	Onsala	24	−4	30
10	Torslanda	24	−3	28
11	Kongahälla	24	−10	27
12	Åstorp	24	−12	26
13	Galtabacks	24	−8	20
14	Astrio	24	−35	10