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Landvetter IS v Astrio

Landvetter IS

1–0Full time

Astrio

Division 2 - Västra Götaland · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

Landvetter IS 1–0 Astrio LANDVETTER IS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Landvetter IS win~~65%

~~The market said~~82%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.187

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.050

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Landvetter IS win at 65%.
1′KICK-OFF Landvetter IS v Astrio
3′Little has changed for our model: Landvetter IS 65% before kick-off, 65% now. 0–0 · 65–19–16
43′We said Landvetter IS at 65%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 53%. 0–0 · 53–31–17
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Landvetter IS win: 65% at kick-off, 53% now
45′HALF-TIME Landvetter IS 0–0 Astrio
46′SECOND HALF Landvetter IS 0–0 Astrio
68′We said Landvetter IS at 65%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 36%. 0–0 · 36–50–14
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Landvetter IS win: 65% at kick-off, 36% now
68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' Draw is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Landvetter IS win 36%)
79′⚽ GOAL · 78' Landvetter IS 1–0 Astrio
86′⚽ GOAL · 78' Landvetter IS 1–0 Astrio
89′78′ and it is 1–0: Landvetter IS have scored. 1–0 · 99–1–0
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Landvetter IS win: 65% at kick-off, 99% now
89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' Landvetter IS win is now our likeliest result at 99% (was Draw 1%)
FTFULL TIME Landvetter IS 1–0 Astrio
FTLandvetter IS 1–0 Astrio · Landvetter IS win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Landvetter IS win65%

Draw19%

Astrio win17%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · landvetter is winPublished 10 Oct 13:12

65% The market82%

Us65%

~~Market~~82%

We make Landvetter IS a 65% chance to win. The market has them at 82%. We are 17 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.3–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · landvetter is win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 82% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Landvetter IS win	65%	82%	−17
Draw	19%	12%	+6
Astrio win	17%	6%	+11
Over 2.5 goals	65%	74%	−9
Both teams to score	57%	49%	+8
Over 1.5 goals	85%	89%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	44%	58%	−15
Landvetter IS or draw	83%	94%	−11
Landvetter IS clean sheet	36%	–	–
Astrio clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.1%

0123450 3.8 3.7 2.1 1 7.9 8.3 4.5 2 9.0 9.1 4.9 3 7.0 6.9 3.6 4 4.3 4.1 2.1 5 2.2 2.0

under 2% 5% 12%+Landvetter IS down, Astrio across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,109 Division 2 - Västra Götaland matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Division 2 - Västra Götaland matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.3% of games this season, across 169 played.

Head to head

9 previous meetings, 3.67 goals a meeting; 7 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Landvetter IS at home: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Astrio away: 1.67 scored, 3.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.34 goals for Landvetter IS, 1.06 for Astrio. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.67

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 9

~~Both scored~~6 of 9

~~Last meetings~~AST 0–2 LAN · LAN 0–1 AST · AST 4–2 LAN · AST 3–1 LAN

Form · last six in Division 2 - Västra Götaland

LANDVETTER IS

WLWDWW2–1 · 3–4 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 1–0

ASTRIO

LLLLWD2–4 · 1–2 · 1–5 · 0–2 · 6–3 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Landvetter IS	24	+23	54
2	Dalstorps	24	+21	46
3	Jonsered	24	+3	42
4	Hestrafor	24	+9	41
5	Västra Frölunda	24	+6	37
6	Böljan	25	+6	37
7	Lindome	25	+4	37
8	Qviding FIF	24	0	34
9	Onsala	24	−4	30
10	Torslanda	24	−3	28
11	Kongahälla	24	−10	27
12	Åstorp	24	−12	26
13	Galtabacks	24	−8	20
14	Astrio	24	−35	10