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Kongahälla v Qviding FIF

Kongahälla

1–2Full time

Qviding FIF

Division 2 - Västra Götaland · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 18:32

Kongahälla 1–2 Qviding FIF QVIDING FIF WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Qviding FIF win~~40%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.554

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.690

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Qviding FIF win at 40%.
2′Much as we predicted: Qviding FIF was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 39–22–40
2′KICK-OFF Kongahälla v Qviding FIF
37′PENALTY MISSED · 37' Qviding FIF
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Kongahälla 1–0 Qviding FIF
45′HALF-TIME Kongahälla 1–0 Qviding FIF
46′SECOND HALF Kongahälla 1–0 Qviding FIF
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Kongahälla 1–1 Qviding FIF
87′⚽ GOAL · 86' Kongahälla 1–2 Qviding FIF
FTFULL TIME Kongahälla 1–2 Qviding FIF
FTKongahälla 1–2 Qviding FIF · Qviding FIF win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Kongahälla win39%

Draw21%

Qviding FIF win40%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 16:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · qviding fif winPublished 10 Oct 15:43

40% The market33%

Us40%

~~Market~~33%

We make Qviding FIF a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · qviding fif win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 33% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kongahälla win	39%	44%	−5
Draw	21%	23%	−2
Qviding FIF win	40%	33%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	72%	69%	+3
Both teams to score	71%	69%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	89%	85%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	52%	50%	+2
Kongahälla or draw	60%	67%	−7
Kongahälla clean sheet	16%	–	–
Qviding FIF clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.2%

0123450 2.6 4.5 4.2 2.7 1 4.4 8.2 7.6 4.8 2.3 2 4.1 7.4 6.9 4.4 2.1 3 2.5 4.6 4.3 2.8 4 2.2 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kongahälla down, Qviding FIF across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,109 Division 2 - Västra Götaland matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Division 2 - Västra Götaland matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.3% of games this season, across 169 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kongahälla at home: 2.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Qviding FIF away: 1.00 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.87 goals for Kongahälla, 1.90 for Qviding FIF. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~QVI 3–1 KON

Form · last six in Division 2 - Västra Götaland

KONGAHÄLLA

LWWWWL1–3 · 4–3 · 5–1 · 3–1 · 3–2 · 0–2

QVIDING FIF

LWWLWL0–5 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Landvetter IS	24	+23	54
2	Dalstorps	24	+21	46
3	Jonsered	24	+3	42
4	Hestrafor	24	+9	41
5	Västra Frölunda	24	+6	37
6	Böljan	25	+6	37
7	Lindome	25	+4	37
8	Qviding FIF	24	0	34
9	Onsala	24	−4	30
10	Torslanda	24	−3	28
11	Kongahälla	24	−10	27
12	Åstorp	24	−12	26
13	Galtabacks	24	−8	20
14	Astrio	24	−35	10