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Model 1.2

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Hestrafor v Landvetter IS

Hestrafor
2–3Full time
Landvetter IS

Division 2 - Västra Götaland · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04
Hestrafor 2–3 Landvetter IS LANDVETTER IS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Landvetter IS win39%
The market said50%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.575
The market’s Brier score0.375

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay19 notes · 17 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Landvetter IS win at 39%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Landvetter IS 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 38–24–39
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Hestrafor v Landvetter IS
  4. 29′A goal for Landvetter IS on 29′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 14–21–65
  5. 29′We said Landvetter IS at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 65%. 0–1 · 14–21–65
  6. 29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Hestrafor 0–1 Landvetter IS
  7. 29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Landvetter IS win: 39% at kick-off, 65% now
  8. 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.2 we expected. 0–1 · 14–21–65
  9. 45′HALF-TIME Hestrafor 0–1 Landvetter IS
  10. 46′SECOND HALF Hestrafor 0–1 Landvetter IS
  11. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Landvetter IS win: 39% at kick-off, 69% now
  12. 51′We said Landvetter IS at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–1 · 9–22–70
  13. 59′Hestrafor score on 58′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 28–44–28
  14. 59′⚽ GOAL · 58' Hestrafor 1–1 Landvetter IS
  15. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Landvetter IS win: 39% at kick-off, 28% now
  16. 59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Landvetter IS win 28%)
  17. 61′We said Landvetter IS at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 1–1 · 27–46–27
  18. 67′We said Landvetter IS at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–52–24
  19. 71′Landvetter IS find the net on 71′. 1–2. 1–2 · 3–18–79
  20. 71′We said Landvetter IS at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 1–2 · 3–18–79
  21. 71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Hestrafor 1–2 Landvetter IS
  22. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Landvetter IS win: 39% at kick-off, 79% now
  23. 71′THE CALL SWINGS · 71' Landvetter IS win is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Draw 18%)
  24. 73′We said Landvetter IS at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–2 · 3–17–80
  25. 79′We said Landvetter IS at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–2 · 1–13–85
  26. 80′A goal for Landvetter IS on 80′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 0–1–99
  27. 80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Hestrafor 1–3 Landvetter IS
  28. 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Landvetter IS win: 39% at kick-off, 99% now
  29. 81′We said Landvetter IS at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 1–3 · 0–1–99
  30. 81′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–1–99
  31. 84′We said Landvetter IS at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
  32. 84′Hestrafor score on 84′ to make it 2–3. 2–3 · 0–9–91
  33. 84′We said Landvetter IS at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 2–3 · 0–9–91
  34. 84′5 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 0–9–91
  35. 84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Hestrafor 2–3 Landvetter IS
  36. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Landvetter IS win: 39% at kick-off, 91% now
  37. FTFULL TIME Hestrafor 2–3 Landvetter IS
  38. FTHestrafor 2–3 Landvetter IS · Landvetter IS win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Landvetter IS just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Hestrafor 38%, draw 23%, Landvetter IS 39%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Hestrafor v Landvetter ISBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Hestrafor win38%
Draw23%
Landvetter IS win39%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundVästra Götaland · matchday 26

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hestrafor

Landvetter IS

7Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Last match: 10 Oct · Division 2 - Västra Götaland

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
1Landvetter IS25+2457
4Hestrafor25+741

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · landvetter is winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
39% The market50%
Us39%
Market50%

We make Landvetter IS a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Hestrafor v Landvetter IS1.57 – 1.59
Form · last six in Division 2 - Västra Götaland this season · since 4 SeptW2 D1 L3 · W4 D1 L1
Table places · points 41 v 574 v 1
The market · Landvetter IS win50% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50%55% 12 OCT 04:0518 OCT 12:49
Our probability · Landvetter IS win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Hestrafor win38%26%+12
Draw23%24%−1
Landvetter IS win39%50%−11
Over 2.5 goals61%67%−6
Both teams to score62%67%−5
Over 1.5 goals82%85%−3
Over 3.5 goals39%47%−8
Hestrafor or draw61%50%+11
Hestrafor clean sheet21%––
Landvetter IS clean sheet21%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%
0123450 4.5 6.9 5.4 2.9 1 6.8 10.4 8.1 4.3 2 5.3 8.1 6.3 3.4 3 2.8 4.3 3.4 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Hestrafor down, Landvetter IS across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025
Goals a meeting4.33
Over 2.52 of 3
Both scored2 of 3
Last meetingsLAN 2–0 HES · HES 3–4 LAN · LAN 3–1 HES

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Division 2 - Västra Götaland this season · since 4 Sept

HESTRAFOR

WWLDLL2–0 · 3–1 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 2–4

LANDVETTER IS

LWDWWW3–4 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Landvetter IS25+2457
2Dalstorps25+2249
3Jonsered25+242
4Hestrafor25+741
5Böljan25+637
6Västra Frölunda25+537
7Lindome25+437
8Qviding FIF25+137
9Onsala25−333
10Torslanda25−231
11Kongahälla25−1127
12Åstorp25−1326
13Galtabacks25−623
14Astrio25−3610

The competition's standings before kick-off.