Galtabacks v Hestrafor prediction · Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 15:46

Galtabacks 4–2 Hestrafor HESTRAFOR WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hestrafor win~~42%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.619

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.713

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hestrafor win at 42%.
1′Much as we predicted: Hestrafor was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 37–22–42
1′KICK-OFF Galtabacks v Hestrafor
4′Much as we predicted: Hestrafor was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 36–22–41
29′⚽ GOAL · 28' Galtabacks 1–0 Hestrafor
31′⚽ GOAL · 30' Galtabacks 1–1 Hestrafor
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Galtabacks 2–1 Hestrafor
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Galtabacks 3–1 Hestrafor
45′HALF-TIME Galtabacks 3–1 Hestrafor
46′SECOND HALF Galtabacks 3–1 Hestrafor
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Galtabacks 3–2 Hestrafor
66′⚽ GOAL · 64' Galtabacks 3–2 Hestrafor
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Galtabacks 4–2 Hestrafor
FTFULL TIME Galtabacks 4–2 Hestrafor
FTGaltabacks 4–2 Hestrafor · Hestrafor win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Galtabacks win37%

Draw22%

Hestrafor win42%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 13:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Galtabacks

Hestrafor

9Days since last match9

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Hestrafor	24	+9	41
13	Galtabacks	24	−8	20

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hestrafor winPublished 11 Oct 12:33

42% The market44%

Us42%

~~Market~~44%

We make Hestrafor a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.8–1.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · hestrafor win The market, margin stripped

Published at 41%, 42% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Galtabacks win	37%	32%	+5
Draw	22%	24%	−2
Hestrafor win	42%	44%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	70%	67%	+3
Both teams to score	69%	68%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	87%	83%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	49%	48%	+1
Galtabacks or draw	58%	56%	+2
Galtabacks clean sheet	16%	–	–
Hestrafor clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.7%

0123450 2.9 5.1 4.7 3.0 1 4.8 8.7 7.9 5.0 2.4 2 4.2 7.5 6.8 4.3 2.1 3 2.4 4.4 4.0 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Galtabacks down, Hestrafor across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,113 Division 2 - Västra Götaland matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Division 2 - Västra Götaland matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.6% of games this season, across 173 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Galtabacks at home: 1.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Hestrafor away: 2.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.76 goals for Galtabacks, 1.88 for Hestrafor. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~HES 1–2 GAL

Form · last six in Division 2 - Västra Götaland

GALTABACKS

WWLWLL3–1 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 4–1 · 3–6 · 3–4

HESTRAFOR

WWWLDL3–1 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Landvetter IS	25	+24	57
2	Dalstorps	25	+22	49
3	Jonsered	25	+2	42
4	Hestrafor	24	+9	41
5	Västra Frölunda	24	+6	37
6	Böljan	25	+6	37
7	Lindome	25	+4	37
8	Qviding FIF	25	+1	37
9	Onsala	25	−3	33
10	Torslanda	24	−3	28
11	Kongahälla	25	−11	27
12	Åstorp	25	−13	26
13	Galtabacks	24	−8	20
14	Astrio	25	−36	10