Böljan v Kongahälla prediction · Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

Böljan 1–3 Kongahälla BÖLJAN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Böljan win~~49%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.820

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.660

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Böljan win at 49%.
1′Much as we predicted: Böljan was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–23–28
1′KICK-OFF Böljan v Kongahälla
25′Böljan find the net on 25′. 1–0. 1–0 · 73–17–9
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Böljan 1–0 Kongahälla
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Böljan win: 49% at kick-off, 73% now
26′We published Böljan at 49%. Our model now makes it 73%. 1–0 · 73–17–9
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 1–0 · 74–18–9
40′A goal for Kongahälla on 40′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 41–33–25
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Böljan 1–1 Kongahälla
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Böljan win: 49% at kick-off, 41% now
41′Kongahälla score on 41′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 16–25–59
41′We said Böljan at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 16%. 1–2 · 16–25–59
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Böljan 1–2 Kongahälla
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Böljan win: 49% at kick-off, 16% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Kongahälla win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Böljan win 16%)
45′We said Böljan at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–2 · 14–25–60
45′HALF-TIME Böljan 1–2 Kongahälla
46′SECOND HALF Böljan 1–2 Kongahälla
59′We said Böljan at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–24–67
59′Kongahälla find the net on 59′. 1–3. 1–3 · 2–7–91
59′We said Böljan at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 1–3 · 2–7–91
59′4 goals already, more than the 3.1 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 2–7–91
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Böljan win: 49% at kick-off, 9% now
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Böljan 1–3 Kongahälla
FTFULL TIME Böljan 1–3 Kongahälla
FTBöljan 1–3 Kongahälla · Böljan win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Böljan are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Böljan 49%, draw 23%, Kongahälla 28%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Böljan v KongahällaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Böljan win49%

Draw23%

Kongahälla win28%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundVästra Götaland · matchday 26

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Böljan

Kongahälla

9Days since last match8

Last match: 9 Oct · Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Last match: 10 Oct · Division 2 - Västra Götaland

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Böljan	25	+6	37
11	Kongahälla	25	−11	27

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · böljan winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

49% The market42%

Us49%

~~Market~~42%

We make Böljan a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Böljan v Kongahälla~~1.80 – 1.28

~~Form · last six in Division 2 - Västra Götaland this season · since 4 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 37 v 27~~5 v 11

~~The market · Böljan win~~42% · ours 49%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Böljan win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Böljan win	49%	42%	+7
Draw	23%	24%	−1
Kongahälla win	28%	34%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	59%	67%	−8
Both teams to score	59%	68%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	81%	84%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	37%	47%	−10
Böljan or draw	72%	66%	+6
Böljan clean sheet	28%	–	–
Kongahälla clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%

0123450 4.9 6.1 3.9 1 8.4 10.4 6.6 2.9 2 7.4 9.2 5.8 2.5 3 4.5 5.5 3.5 4 2.1 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Böljan down, Kongahälla across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,115 Division 2 - Västra Götaland matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division 2 - Västra Götaland matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.4% of games this season, across 175 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2025 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Böljan at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Kongahälla away: 1.33 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.80 goals for Böljan, 1.28 for Kongahälla. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~KON 0–2 BOL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Division 2 - Västra Götaland this season · since 4 Sept

BÖLJAN

WLDDLW5–2 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 3–1

KONGAHÄLLA

WWWWLL4–3 · 5–1 · 3–1 · 3–2 · 0–2 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Landvetter IS	25	+24	57
2	Dalstorps	25	+22	49
3	Jonsered	25	+2	42
4	Hestrafor	25	+7	41
5	Böljan	25	+6	37
6	Västra Frölunda	25	+5	37
7	Lindome	25	+4	37
8	Qviding FIF	25	+1	37
9	Onsala	25	−3	33
10	Torslanda	25	−2	31
11	Kongahälla	25	−11	27
12	Åstorp	25	−13	26
13	Galtabacks	25	−6	23
14	Astrio	25	−36	10