Astrio v Dalstorps prediction · Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

Astrio 1–5 Dalstorps DALSTORPS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dalstorps win~~57%

~~The market said~~69%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.276

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.148

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dalstorps win at 57%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Dalstorps 57% before kick-off, 57% now. 0–0 · 22–21–57
1′KICK-OFF Astrio v Dalstorps
8′Dalstorps score on 8′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 9–14–77
8′We said Dalstorps at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 0–1 · 9–14–77
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Astrio 0–1 Dalstorps
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Dalstorps win: 57% at kick-off, 77% now
10′Dalstorps find the net on 10′. 0–2. 0–2 · 3–6–91
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Astrio 0–2 Dalstorps
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 10' Dalstorps win: 57% at kick-off, 91% now
11′We said Dalstorps at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 0–2 · 3–6–91
40′A goal for Dalstorps on 40′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–1–99
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Astrio 0–3 Dalstorps
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Dalstorps win: 57% at kick-off, 99% now
41′We said Dalstorps at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 0–3 · 0–1–99
45′HALF-TIME Astrio 0–3 Dalstorps
46′SECOND HALF Astrio 0–3 Dalstorps
57′Astrio score on 57′ to make it 1–3. 1–3 · 1–3–96
57′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.3 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 1–3–96
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Astrio 1–3 Dalstorps
61′Dalstorps find the net on 61′. 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
61′We said Dalstorps at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 1–4 · 0–0–100
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Astrio 1–4 Dalstorps
62′5 goals already, more than the 3.3 we expected for the whole match. 1–4 · 0–0–100
82′A goal for Dalstorps on 82′ — 1–5. 1–5 · 0–0–100
82′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.3 across ninety minutes. 1–5 · 0–0–100
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Astrio 1–5 Dalstorps
85′PENALTY MISSED · 84' Astrio
FTFULL TIME Astrio 1–5 Dalstorps
FTAstrio 1–5 Dalstorps · Dalstorps win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dalstorps are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Astrio 22%, draw 20%, Dalstorps 57%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Astrio v DalstorpsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Astrio win22%

Draw20%

Dalstorps win57%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundVästra Götaland · matchday 26

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Astrio

Dalstorps

8Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Division 2 - Västra Götaland

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Dalstorps	25	+22	49
14	Astrio	25	−36	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · dalstorps winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

57% The market69%

Us57%

~~Market~~69%

We make Dalstorps a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 69%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–2.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Astrio v Dalstorps~~1.22 – 2.12

~~Form · last six in Division 2 - Västra Götaland this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 10 v 49~~14 v 2

~~The market · Dalstorps win~~69% · ours 57%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Dalstorps win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 69% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Astrio win	22%	12%	+10
Draw	20%	19%	+1
Dalstorps win	57%	69%	−12
Over 2.5 goals	64%	69%	−5
Both teams to score	60%	60%	0
Over 1.5 goals	84%	85%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	43%	50%	−7
Astrio or draw	43%	31%	+12
Astrio clean sheet	13%	–	–
Dalstorps clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 9.1%

0123450 3.8 7.7 7.8 5.6 3.1 1 4.6 9.0 9.1 6.4 3.5 2 2.9 5.6 5.6 3.8 2.1 3 2.4 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Astrio down, Dalstorps across0–5 goals a side shown (97.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,115 Division 2 - Västra Götaland matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division 2 - Västra Götaland matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.4% of games this season, across 175 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.67 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Astrio at home: 0.50 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Dalstorps away: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Astrio, 2.12 for Dalstorps. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.67

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~DAL 4–0 AST · AST 3–2 DAL · DAL 2–0 AST

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Division 2 - Västra Götaland this season · since 5 Sept

ASTRIO

LLLWDL1–2 · 1–5 · 0–2 · 6–3 · 1–1 · 0–1

DALSTORPS

LWWDWW1–2 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 3–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Landvetter IS	25	+24	57
2	Dalstorps	25	+22	49
3	Jonsered	25	+2	42
4	Hestrafor	25	+7	41
5	Böljan	25	+6	37
6	Västra Frölunda	25	+5	37
7	Lindome	25	+4	37
8	Qviding FIF	25	+1	37
9	Onsala	25	−3	33
10	Torslanda	25	−2	31
11	Kongahälla	25	−11	27
12	Åstorp	25	−13	26
13	Galtabacks	25	−6	23
14	Astrio	25	−36	10