Åstorp v Galtabacks prediction · Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

Åstorp 4–0 Galtabacks ÅSTORP WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Åstorp win~~45%

~~The market said~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.453

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.315

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Åstorp are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Åstorp 45%, draw 23%, Galtabacks 32%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Åstorp v GaltabacksBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Åstorp win45%

Draw23%

Galtabacks win32%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundVästra Götaland · matchday 26

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Åstorp

Galtabacks

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Last match: 11 Oct · Division 2 - Västra Götaland

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Åstorp	25	−13	26
13	Galtabacks	25	−6	23

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · åstorp winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

45% The market54%

Us45%

~~Market~~54%

We make Åstorp a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Åstorp v Galtabacks~~1.75 – 1.43

~~Form · last six in Division 2 - Västra Götaland this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 26 v 23~~12 v 13

~~The market · Åstorp win~~54% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Åstorp win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Åstorp win	45%	54%	−9
Draw	23%	23%	0
Galtabacks win	32%	23%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	61%	67%	−6
Both teams to score	62%	66%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	82%	84%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	39%	47%	−8
Åstorp or draw	68%	77%	−9
Åstorp clean sheet	25%	–	–
Galtabacks clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.2%

0123450 4.4 6.1 4.3 2.1 1 7.4 10.2 7.2 3.5 2 6.4 8.8 6.2 3.0 3 3.7 5.2 3.7 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Åstorp down, Galtabacks across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,115 Division 2 - Västra Götaland matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division 2 - Västra Götaland matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.4% of games this season, across 175 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Åstorp at home: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Galtabacks away: 1.50 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.75 goals for Åstorp, 1.43 for Galtabacks. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~GAL 2–2 AST

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Division 2 - Västra Götaland this season · since 5 Sept

ÅSTORP

WLWLLL2–1 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 1–2

GALTABACKS

WLWLLW2–1 · 0–2 · 4–1 · 3–6 · 3–4 · 4–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Landvetter IS	25	+24	57
2	Dalstorps	25	+22	49
3	Jonsered	25	+2	42
4	Hestrafor	25	+7	41
5	Böljan	25	+6	37
6	Västra Frölunda	25	+5	37
7	Lindome	25	+4	37
8	Qviding FIF	25	+1	37
9	Onsala	25	−3	33
10	Torslanda	25	−2	31
11	Kongahälla	25	−11	27
12	Åstorp	25	−13	26
13	Galtabacks	25	−6	23
14	Astrio	25	−36	10