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Smedby v Sleipner

Smedby

1–5Full time

Sleipner

Division 2 - Södra Svealand · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

Smedby 1–5 Sleipner SMEDBY WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Smedby win~~44%

~~The market said~~23%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.674

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.318

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Smedby win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Smedby was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–22–34
1′KICK-OFF Smedby v Sleipner
4′Sleipner score on 4′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 23–21–56
4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Smedby 0–1 Sleipner
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 4' Smedby win: 44% at kick-off, 23% now
4′THE CALL SWINGS · 4' Sleipner win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Smedby win 23%)
5′We said Smedby at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 0–1 · 23–21–56
20′We said Smedby at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–22–58
24′Smedby find the net on 23′. 1–1. 1–1 · 41–27–32
24′⚽ GOAL · 23' Smedby 1–1 Sleipner
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Smedby win: 44% at kick-off, 41% now
24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Smedby win is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Sleipner win 32%)
44′A goal for Sleipner on 43′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 13–23–63
44′We said Smedby at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 1–2 · 13–23–63
44′⚽ GOAL · 43' Smedby 1–2 Sleipner
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Smedby win: 44% at kick-off, 13% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Sleipner win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Smedby win 13%)
45′HALF-TIME Smedby 1–2 Sleipner
46′SECOND HALF Smedby 1–2 Sleipner
54′Sleipner score on 53′ to make it 1–3. 1–3 · 2–8–90
54′We said Smedby at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 1–3 · 2–8–90
54′4 goals already, more than the 3.3 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 2–8–90
54′⚽ GOAL · 53' Smedby 1–3 Sleipner
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Smedby win: 44% at kick-off, 2% now
61′A red card for Smedby on 61′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–3 · 1–6–92
61′🟥 RED CARD · 61' Smedby
85′Sleipner find the net on 84′. 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
85′⚽ GOAL · 84' Smedby 1–4 Sleipner
86′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.3 across ninety minutes. 1–4 · 0–0–100
95′A goal for Sleipner on 90′ — 1–5. 1–5 · 0–0–100
95′6 goals already, more than the 3.3 we expected for the whole match. 1–5 · 0–0–100
95′⚽ GOAL · 90+5' Smedby 1–5 Sleipner
FTFULL TIME Smedby 1–5 Sleipner
FTSmedby 1–5 Sleipner · Smedby win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Smedby are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Smedby 44%, draw 22%, Sleipner 34%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Smedby v SleipnerBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Smedby win44%

Draw22%

Sleipner win34%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundSödra Svealand · matchday 26

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Smedby

Sleipner

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Last match: 11 Oct · Division 2 - Södra Svealand

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Sleipner	25	+15	48
7	Smedby	25	+7	36

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · smedby winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

44% The market23%

Us44%

~~Market~~23%

We make Smedby a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 23%. We are 21 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Smedby v Sleipner~~1.78 – 1.54

~~Form · last six in Division 2 - Södra Svealand this season · since 5 Sept~~W0 D2 L4 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 36 v 48~~7 v 2

~~The market · Smedby win~~23% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Smedby win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 23% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Smedby win	44%	23%	+21
Draw	22%	23%	−1
Sleipner win	34%	54%	−20
Over 2.5 goals	64%	64%	0
Both teams to score	64%	64%	0
Over 1.5 goals	83%	83%	0
Over 3.5 goals	42%	45%	−3
Smedby or draw	66%	46%	+20
Smedby clean sheet	22%	–	–
Sleipner clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.3%

0123450 3.3 6.3 4.3 2.2 1 7.1 9.3 7.5 3.8 2 5.8 8.6 6.5 3.4 3 3.4 5.1 3.9 2.0 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Smedby down, Sleipner across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,115 Division 2 - Södra Svealand matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division 2 - Södra Svealand matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.3% of games this season, across 175 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2022 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 5 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Smedby at home: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Sleipner away: 1.67 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.78 goals for Smedby, 1.54 for Sleipner. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 9

~~Both scored~~7 of 9

~~Last meetings~~SLE 1–1 SME · SME 1–2 SLE · SLE 1–1 SME · SME 2–2 SLE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Division 2 - Södra Svealand this season · since 5 Sept

SMEDBY

DLLLDL1–1 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 3–4

SLEIPNER

WWLDDW3–1 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Farsta	25	+24	49
2	Sleipner	25	+15	48
3	Nyköping	25	+19	46
4	Forward	25	+15	44
5	Haninge	25	+12	43
6	Rågsved	25	+9	42
7	Smedby	25	+7	36
8	Fittja	25	−3	33
9	Örebro Syrianska	25	−1	31
10	Karlslund	25	−4	31
11	Nacka Iliria	25	−18	27
12	Syrianska FC	25	−15	26
13	Lindo FF	25	−19	20
14	Eker Örebro	25	−41	18