Sleipner v Fittja prediction · Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Sleipner 2–0 Fittja SLEIPNER WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sleipner win~~55%

~~The market said~~68%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.308

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.154

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sleipner win at 55%.
1′KICK-OFF Sleipner v Fittja
4′Little has changed for our model: Sleipner 55% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 54–22–24
7′Little has changed for our model: Sleipner 55% before kick-off, 53% now. 0–0 · 53–23–24
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Sleipner 1–0 Fittja
39′A goal for Sleipner on 35′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 77–16–7
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Sleipner win: 55% at kick-off, 77% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Sleipner win: 55% at kick-off, 50% now
40′A goal for Sleipner on 35′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 77–17–7
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Sleipner win: 55% at kick-off, 50% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Sleipner win: 55% at kick-off, 77% now
45′HALF-TIME Sleipner 1–0 Fittja
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Sleipner win: 55% at kick-off, 77% now
46′⚽ GOAL · 35' Sleipner 1–0 Fittja · L. Olausson
46′SECOND HALF Sleipner 1–0 Fittja
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Sleipner 2–0 Fittja
FTFULL TIME Sleipner 2–0 Fittja
FTSleipner 2–0 Fittja · Sleipner win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Sleipner win55%

Draw20%

Fittja win25%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Sleipner

Fittja

8Days since last match9

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Sleipner	24	+13	45
8	Fittja	24	−1	33

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sleipner winPublished 11 Oct 15:13

55% The market68%

Us55%

~~Market~~68%

We make Sleipner a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 68%. We are 13 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · sleipner win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 68% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sleipner win	55%	68%	−13
Draw	20%	18%	+2
Fittja win	25%	14%	+11
Over 2.5 goals	63%	67%	−5
Both teams to score	61%	59%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	83%	83%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	41%	49%	−8
Sleipner or draw	75%	86%	−11
Sleipner clean sheet	29%	–	–
Fittja clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.4%

0123450 3.6 5.5 3.1 1 8.3 9.1 6.0 2.6 2 7.6 9.4 5.9 2.5 3 5.1 6.2 3.9 4 2.6 3.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sleipner down, Fittja across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,112 Division 2 - Södra Svealand matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Division 2 - Södra Svealand matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.2% of games this season, across 172 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sleipner at home: 2.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Fittja away: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.00 goals for Sleipner, 1.26 for Fittja. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~FIT 1–2 SLE

Form · last six in Division 2 - Södra Svealand

SLEIPNER

WWWLDD7–1 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 1–1

FITTJA

LDLWLL0–1 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Farsta	25	+24	49
2	Sleipner	24	+13	45
3	Forward	24	+16	44
4	Nyköping	24	+16	43
5	Haninge	25	+12	43
6	Rågsved	25	+9	42
7	Smedby	25	+7	36
8	Fittja	24	−1	33
9	Karlslund	24	−1	31
10	Örebro Syrianska	25	−1	31
11	Nacka Iliria	25	−18	27
12	Syrianska FC	25	−15	26
13	Lindo FF	25	−19	20
14	Eker Örebro	24	−42	15