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Rågsved v Smedby

Rågsved

4–3Full time

Smedby

Division 2 - Södra Svealand · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Rågsved 4–3 Smedby RÅGSVED WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Rågsved win~~54%

~~The market said~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.320

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.340

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Rågsved win at 54%.
17′Smedby find the net on 1′. 0–1. 0–1 · 27–24–49
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Rågsved win: 54% at kick-off, 27% now
17′THE CALL SWINGS · 17' Smedby win is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Rågsved win 27%)
38′We said Rågsved at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–26–55
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Rågsved win: 54% at kick-off, 19% now
45′⚽ GOAL · 44' Rågsved 1–1 Smedby
45′HALF-TIME Rågsved 1–1 Smedby
46′SECOND HALF Rågsved 1–1 Smedby
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Rågsved 1–2 Smedby
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Rågsved 2–2 Smedby
66′⚽ GOAL · 65' Rågsved 3–2 Smedby
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Rågsved 3–3 Smedby
77′⚽ GOAL · 76' Rågsved 3–3 Smedby
90′⚽ GOAL · 91' Rågsved 4–3 Smedby
FTFULL TIME Rågsved 4–3 Smedby
FTRågsved 4–3 Smedby · Rågsved win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Rågsved win54%

Draw21%

Smedby win26%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rågsved winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

54% The market52%

Us54%

~~Market~~52%

We make Rågsved a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.0–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · rågsved win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 48% to 52% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rågsved win	54%	52%	+2
Draw	21%	24%	−3
Smedby win	26%	24%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	64%	63%	+1
Both teams to score	62%	63%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	83%	81%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	42%	43%	−1
Rågsved or draw	74%	76%	−2
Rågsved clean sheet	28%	–	–
Smedby clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.3%

0123450 3.4 5.4 3.2 1 8.0 9.0 6.1 2.7 2 7.3 9.3 6.0 2.6 3 4.9 6.2 4.0 4 2.5 3.2 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rågsved down, Smedby across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,108 Division 2 - Södra Svealand matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Division 2 - Södra Svealand matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.3% of games this season, across 168 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 3.40 goals a meeting; 4 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rågsved at home: 1.83 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Smedby away: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.00 goals for Rågsved, 1.30 for Smedby. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~3.40

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 5

~~Both scored~~4 of 5

~~Last meetings~~SME 0–2 RAG · SME 1–2 RAG · RAG 4–1 SME · RAG 2–1 SME

Form · last six in Division 2 - Södra Svealand

RÅGSVED

WWWLDW3–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 3–1

SMEDBY

WDLLLD3–1 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Farsta	24	+23	46
2	Sleipner	24	+13	45
3	Forward	24	+16	44
4	Nyköping	24	+16	43
5	Haninge	24	+13	43
6	Rågsved	24	+8	39
7	Smedby	24	+8	36
8	Fittja	24	−1	33
9	Karlslund	24	−1	31
10	Örebro Syrianska	24	−2	28
11	Syrianska FC	24	−14	26
12	Nacka Iliria	24	−19	24
13	Lindo FF	24	−18	20
14	Eker Örebro	24	−42	15