Örebro Syrianska v Eker Örebro prediction · Division 2

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

Örebro Syrianska 3–1 Eker Örebro ÖREBRO SYRIANSKA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Örebro Syrianska win~~68%

~~The market said~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.152

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.212

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Örebro Syrianska are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Örebro Syrianska 68%, draw 17%, Eker Örebro 15%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Örebro Syrianska v Eker ÖrebroBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Örebro Syrianska win68%

Draw17%

Eker Örebro win15%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundSödra Svealand · matchday 26

VenueMellringe IP

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Örebro Syrianska

Eker Örebro

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Last match: 11 Oct · Division 2 - Södra Svealand

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Örebro Syrianska	25	−1	31
14	Eker Örebro	25	−41	18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · örebro syrianska winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

68% The market62%

Us68%

~~Market~~62%

We make Örebro Syrianska a 68% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.4–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Örebro Syrianska v Eker Örebro~~2.45 – 1.04

~~Form · last six in Division 2 - Södra Svealand this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 31 v 18~~9 v 14

~~The market · Örebro Syrianska win~~62% · ours 68%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Örebro Syrianska win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Örebro Syrianska win	68%	62%	+6
Draw	17%	19%	−2
Eker Örebro win	15%	18%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	67%	74%	−7
Both teams to score	58%	69%	−11
Over 1.5 goals	85%	89%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	46%	56%	−10
Örebro Syrianska or draw	85%	82%	+3
Örebro Syrianska clean sheet	36%	–	–
Eker Örebro clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.2%

0123450 2.9 3.8 1 8.1 7.4 4.0 2 9.1 9.2 4.8 3 7.4 7.4 3.9 4 4.6 4.6 2.4 5 2.3 2.3

under 2% 5% 12%+Örebro Syrianska down, Eker Örebro across0–5 goals a side shown (95.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,115 Division 2 - Södra Svealand matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division 2 - Södra Svealand matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.3% of games this season, across 175 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2025 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Örebro Syrianska at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Eker Örebro away: 0.83 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.45 goals for Örebro Syrianska, 1.04 for Eker Örebro. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~EKE 1–0 ORE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Division 2 - Södra Svealand this season · since 5 Sept

ÖREBRO SYRIANSKA

LWWDDW1–3 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 2–1

EKER ÖREBRO

DLLLLW3–3 · 0–3 · 4–5 · 2–3 · 1–3 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Farsta	25	+24	49
2	Sleipner	25	+15	48
3	Nyköping	25	+19	46
4	Forward	25	+15	44
5	Haninge	25	+12	43
6	Rågsved	25	+9	42
7	Smedby	25	+7	36
8	Fittja	25	−3	33
9	Örebro Syrianska	25	−1	31
10	Karlslund	25	−4	31
11	Nacka Iliria	25	−18	27
12	Syrianska FC	25	−15	26
13	Lindo FF	25	−19	20
14	Eker Örebro	25	−41	18