Nyköping v Karlslund prediction · Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 14:34

Nyköping 4–1 Karlslund NYKÖPING WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Nyköping win~~57%

~~The market said~~65%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.283

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.189

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Nyköping win at 57%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Nyköping 57% before kick-off, 56% now. 0–0 · 56–23–21
1′KICK-OFF Nyköping v Karlslund
2′Little has changed for our model: Nyköping 57% before kick-off, 56% now. 0–0 · 56–23–21
24′⚽ GOAL · 23' Nyköping 0–1 Karlslund
38′24′ and it is 0–1: Karlslund have scored. 0–1 · 19–27–54
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Nyköping win: 57% at kick-off, 19% now
38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Karlslund win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Nyköping win 19%)
39′24′ and it is 0–1: Karlslund have scored. 0–1 · 19–27–54
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Nyköping win: 57% at kick-off, 52% now
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Nyköping win is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Karlslund win 21%)
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Nyköping win: 57% at kick-off, 19% now
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Karlslund win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Nyköping win 19%)
45′⚽ GOAL · 46' Nyköping 1–1 Karlslund
45′HALF-TIME Nyköping 1–1 Karlslund
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Nyköping win: 57% at kick-off, 19% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Karlslund win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Nyköping win 19%)
46′SECOND HALF Nyköping 1–1 Karlslund
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Nyköping 2–1 Karlslund
54′⚽ GOAL · 24' Nyköping 2–1 Karlslund
54′⚽ GOAL · 46' Nyköping 2–1 Karlslund · S. Hamo
54′⚽ GOAL · 53' Nyköping 2–1 Karlslund
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Nyköping 3–1 Karlslund
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Nyköping 4–1 Karlslund
FTFULL TIME Nyköping 4–1 Karlslund
FTNyköping 4–1 Karlslund · Nyköping win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Nyköping win57%

Draw22%

Karlslund win22%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 12:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Nyköping

Karlslund

9Days since last match7

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Nyköping	24	+16	43
9	Karlslund	24	−1	31

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · nyköping winPublished 11 Oct 12:12

57% The market65%

Us57%

~~Market~~65%

We make Nyköping a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · nyköping win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 65% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nyköping win	57%	65%	−8
Draw	22%	20%	+2
Karlslund win	22%	16%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	54%	67%	−14
Both teams to score	52%	61%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	76%	83%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	32%	48%	−16
Nyköping or draw	78%	84%	−6
Nyköping clean sheet	37%	–	–
Karlslund clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.3%

0123450 5.6 6.6 3.1 1 11.3 10.0 5.4 2 9.6 9.5 4.9 3 5.9 5.8 3.0 4 2.7 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nyköping down, Karlslund across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,112 Division 2 - Södra Svealand matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Division 2 - Södra Svealand matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.2% of games this season, across 172 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 2.80 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nyköping at home: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Karlslund away: 2.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.83 goals for Nyköping, 1.02 for Karlslund. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~1 of 5

~~Last meetings~~KAR 0–1 NYK · KAR 0–2 NYK · NYK 4–2 KAR · NYK 2–0 KAR

Form · last six in Division 2 - Södra Svealand

NYKÖPING

LWWLWD1–3 · 3–0 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–1

KARLSLUND

WDLWDW3–1 · 3–3 · 0–3 · 3–0 · 2–2 · 4–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Farsta	25	+24	49
2	Sleipner	24	+13	45
3	Forward	24	+16	44
4	Nyköping	24	+16	43
5	Haninge	25	+12	43
6	Rågsved	25	+9	42
7	Smedby	25	+7	36
8	Fittja	24	−1	33
9	Karlslund	24	−1	31
10	Örebro Syrianska	25	−1	31
11	Nacka Iliria	25	−18	27
12	Syrianska FC	25	−15	26
13	Lindo FF	25	−19	20
14	Eker Örebro	24	−42	15