Nacka Iliria v Syrianska FC prediction · Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 03:22

Nacka Iliria 4–2 Syrianska FC NACKA ILIRIA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Nacka Iliria win~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.430

Corrected on 21 Oct: this match was first graded on a score of 3–2; the score is now 4–2 and the grades above follow it.

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Nacka Iliria are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Nacka Iliria 47%, draw 21%, Syrianska FC 32%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Nacka Iliria v Syrianska FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Nacka Iliria win47%

Draw21%

Syrianska FC win32%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundSödra Svealand · matchday 26

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Nacka Iliria

Syrianska FC

8Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Division 2 - Södra Svealand

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Nacka Iliria	25	−18	27
12	Syrianska FC	25	−15	26

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · nacka iliria winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Nacka Iliria a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Nacka Iliria v Syrianska FC~~1.83 – 1.47

~~Form · last six in Division 2 - Södra Svealand this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 27 v 26~~11 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nacka Iliria win	47%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Syrianska FC win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	64%	–	–
Both teams to score	63%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	42%	–	–
Nacka Iliria or draw	68%	–	–
Nacka Iliria clean sheet	24%	–	–
Syrianska FC clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.3%

0123450 3.4 6.1 4.0 1 7.4 9.3 7.1 3.5 2 6.2 8.8 6.4 3.2 3 3.8 5.4 3.9 4 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nacka Iliria down, Syrianska FC across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,115 Division 2 - Södra Svealand matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division 2 - Södra Svealand matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.3% of games this season, across 175 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2023 in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 3 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nacka Iliria at home: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Syrianska FC away: 0.67 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.83 goals for Nacka Iliria, 1.47 for Syrianska FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~SYR 2–2 NAC · SYR 0–0 NAC · NAC 1–2 SYR · NAC 4–2 SYR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Division 2 - Södra Svealand this season · since 5 Sept

NACKA ILIRIA

DLWWLW1–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–4 · 5–4

SYRIANSKA FC

DWWLWL0–0 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 5–2 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Farsta	25	+24	49
2	Sleipner	25	+15	48
3	Nyköping	25	+19	46
4	Forward	25	+15	44
5	Haninge	25	+12	43
6	Rågsved	25	+9	42
7	Smedby	25	+7	36
8	Fittja	25	−3	33
9	Örebro Syrianska	25	−1	31
10	Karlslund	25	−4	31
11	Nacka Iliria	25	−18	27
12	Syrianska FC	25	−15	26
13	Lindo FF	25	−19	20
14	Eker Örebro	25	−41	18