Karlslund v Rågsved prediction · Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

Karlslund 2–4 Rågsved RÅGSVED WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Rågsved win~~42%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.515

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.361

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Rågsved are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Karlslund 37%, draw 21%, Rågsved 42%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on Karlslund v RågsvedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Karlslund win37%

Draw21%

Rågsved win42%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundSödra Svealand · matchday 26

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Karlslund

Rågsved

7Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Last match: 10 Oct · Division 2 - Södra Svealand

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Rågsved	25	+9	42
10	Karlslund	25	−4	31

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rågsved winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

42% The market51%

Us42%

~~Market~~51%

We make Rågsved a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Karlslund v Rågsved~~1.62 – 1.76

~~Form · last six in Division 2 - Södra Svealand this season · since 4 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 31 v 42~~10 v 6

~~The market · Rågsved win~~51% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Rågsved win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Karlslund win	37%	26%	+11
Draw	21%	23%	−2
Rågsved win	42%	51%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	65%	67%	−2
Both teams to score	65%	67%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	84%	85%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	44%	47%	−3
Karlslund or draw	58%	49%	+9
Karlslund clean sheet	18%	–	–
Rågsved clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.1%

0123450 3.1 6.7 5.3 3.1 1 6.2 9.1 8.3 4.9 2.2 2 4.5 7.7 6.6 3.9 3 2.5 4.2 3.6 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Karlslund down, Rågsved across0–5 goals a side shown (98.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,115 Division 2 - Södra Svealand matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division 2 - Södra Svealand matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.3% of games this season, across 175 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2022 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Karlslund at home: 1.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Rågsved away: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.62 goals for Karlslund, 1.76 for Rågsved. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~3 of 3

~~Last meetings~~RAG 3–1 KAR · KAR 2–1 RAG · RAG 1–1 KAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Division 2 - Södra Svealand this season · since 4 Sept

KARLSLUND

DLWDWL3–3 · 0–3 · 3–0 · 2–2 · 4–1 · 1–4

RÅGSVED

WWLDWW2–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 3–1 · 4–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Farsta	25	+24	49
2	Sleipner	25	+15	48
3	Nyköping	25	+19	46
4	Forward	25	+15	44
5	Haninge	25	+12	43
6	Rågsved	25	+9	42
7	Smedby	25	+7	36
8	Fittja	25	−3	33
9	Örebro Syrianska	25	−1	31
10	Karlslund	25	−4	31
11	Nacka Iliria	25	−18	27
12	Syrianska FC	25	−15	26
13	Lindo FF	25	−19	20
14	Eker Örebro	25	−41	18