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Haninge v Nacka Iliria

Haninge

4–5Full time

Nacka Iliria

Division 2 - Södra Svealand · SAT 10 OCT · Torvalla idrottsplats

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Haninge 4–5 Nacka Iliria HANINGE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Haninge win~~71%

~~The market said~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.267

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.072

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Haninge win at 71%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Haninge 71% before kick-off, 71% now. 0–0 · 71–15–13
1′KICK-OFF Haninge v Nacka Iliria
20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Haninge 1–0 Nacka Iliria
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Haninge 2–0 Nacka Iliria
29′23′ and it is 2–0: Haninge have scored. 2–0 · 95–4–1
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Haninge win: 71% at kick-off, 95% now
33′⚽ GOAL · 31' Haninge 3–0 Nacka Iliria
40′⚽ GOAL · 39' Haninge 3–1 Nacka Iliria
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Haninge 3–2 Nacka Iliria
45′⚽ GOAL · 47' Haninge 3–3 Nacka Iliria
45′⚽ GOAL · 53' Haninge 3–4 Nacka Iliria
45′HALF-TIME Haninge 3–4 Nacka Iliria
47′SECOND HALF Haninge 3–4 Nacka Iliria
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Haninge 4–4 Nacka Iliria
68′⚽ GOAL · 67' Haninge 4–4 Nacka Iliria
90′⚽ GOAL · 91' Haninge 4–5 Nacka Iliria
FTFULL TIME Haninge 4–5 Nacka Iliria
FTHaninge 4–5 Nacka Iliria · Haninge win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Haninge win71%

Draw14%

Nacka Iliria win14%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Torvalla idrottsplats

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · haninge winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

71% The market61%

Us71%

~~Market~~61%

We make Haninge a 71% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.9–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · haninge win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 56% to 61% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Haninge win	71%	61%	+11
Draw	14%	20%	−6
Nacka Iliria win	14%	19%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	77%	71%	+6
Both teams to score	66%	66%	0
Over 1.5 goals	91%	87%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	59%	53%	+6
Haninge or draw	86%	81%	+5
Haninge clean sheet	30%	–	–
Nacka Iliria clean sheet	6%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.1%

0123450 2.4 1 5.2 5.5 3.6 2 6.8 8.1 5.0 2.1 3 6.4 7.7 4.7 4 4.7 5.6 3.4 5 2.8 3.3 2.0

under 2% 5% 12%+Haninge down, Nacka Iliria across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,108 Division 2 - Södra Svealand matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Division 2 - Södra Svealand matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.3% of games this season, across 168 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 4.20 goals a meeting; 4 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Haninge at home: 3.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Nacka Iliria away: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.91 goals for Haninge, 1.23 for Nacka Iliria. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~4.20

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 5

~~Both scored~~5 of 5

~~Last meetings~~NAC 1–5 HAN · HAN 4–1 NAC · NAC 1–4 HAN · NAC 1–2 HAN

Form · last six in Division 2 - Södra Svealand

HANINGE

WLLWWD6–1 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 5–4 · 2–1 · 2–2

NACKA ILIRIA

LDLWWL1–4 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–4

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Farsta	24	+23	46
2	Sleipner	24	+13	45
3	Forward	24	+16	44
4	Nyköping	24	+16	43
5	Haninge	24	+13	43
6	Rågsved	24	+8	39
7	Smedby	24	+8	36
8	Fittja	24	−1	33
9	Karlslund	24	−1	31
10	Örebro Syrianska	24	−2	28
11	Syrianska FC	24	−14	26
12	Nacka Iliria	24	−19	24
13	Lindo FF	24	−18	20
14	Eker Örebro	24	−42	15