Forward v Haninge prediction · Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

Forward 3–3 Haninge FORWARD WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Forward win~~48%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.001

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.873

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Forward are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Forward 48%, draw 19%, Haninge 33%. Over 2.5 goals 79%, both teams to score 75%.

The AI’s read on Forward v HaningeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Forward win48%

Draw19%

Haninge win33%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundSödra Svealand · matchday 26

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Forward

Haninge

7Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Last match: 10 Oct · Division 2 - Södra Svealand

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Forward	25	+15	44
5	Haninge	25	+12	43

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · forward winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

48% The market42%

Us48%

~~Market~~42%

We make Forward a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.3–1.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Forward v Haninge~~2.32 – 1.91

~~Form · last six in Division 2 - Södra Svealand this season · since 4 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 44 v 43~~4 v 5

~~The market · Forward win~~42% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Forward win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Forward win	48%	42%	+6
Draw	19%	24%	−5
Haninge win	33%	34%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	79%	70%	+9
Both teams to score	75%	71%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	92%	86%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	60%	51%	+9
Forward or draw	67%	66%	+1
Forward clean sheet	15%	–	–
Haninge clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.3%

0123450 3.3 2.8 1 3.9 6.2 6.1 3.9 2 4.0 7.3 6.9 4.4 2.1 3 3.0 5.6 5.2 3.3 4 3.3 3.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Forward down, Haninge across0–5 goals a side shown (94.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,115 Division 2 - Södra Svealand matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division 2 - Södra Svealand matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.3% of games this season, across 175 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Forward at home: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Haninge away: 2.33 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.32 goals for Forward, 1.91 for Haninge. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~HAN 0–2 FOR · FOR 1–0 HAN · HAN 1–2 FOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Division 2 - Södra Svealand this season · since 4 Sept

FORWARD

LWWDDL1–2 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–2

HANINGE

LLWWDL1–2 · 0–2 · 5–4 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 4–5

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Farsta	25	+24	49
2	Sleipner	25	+15	48
3	Nyköping	25	+19	46
4	Forward	25	+15	44
5	Haninge	25	+12	43
6	Rågsved	25	+9	42
7	Smedby	25	+7	36
8	Fittja	25	−3	33
9	Örebro Syrianska	25	−1	31
10	Karlslund	25	−4	31
11	Nacka Iliria	25	−18	27
12	Syrianska FC	25	−15	26
13	Lindo FF	25	−19	20
14	Eker Örebro	25	−41	18