Fittja v Nyköping prediction · Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

Fittja 4–1 Nyköping NYKÖPING WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Nyköping win~~40%

~~The market said~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.627

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.931

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Nyköping win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Nyköping 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 36–25–40
1′KICK-OFF Fittja v Nyköping
11′Fittja find the net on 11′. 1–0. 1–0 · 62–22–17
11′We said Nyköping at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 17%. 1–0 · 62–22–17
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Fittja 1–0 Nyköping
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' Nyköping win: 40% at kick-off, 17% now
11′THE CALL SWINGS · 11' Fittja win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Nyköping win 17%)
22′We said Nyköping at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 63–22–14
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 65–23–13
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Nyköping win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
45′We said Nyköping at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 68–22–9
45′HALF-TIME Fittja 1–0 Nyköping
46′SECOND HALF Fittja 1–0 Nyköping
59′A goal for Fittja on 58′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
59′We said Nyköping at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 2–0 · 94–5–1
59′⚽ GOAL · 58' Fittja 2–0 Nyköping
66′Fittja score on 65′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
66′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
66′⚽ GOAL · 65' Fittja 3–0 Nyköping
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Nyköping win: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
85′Nyköping find the net on 84′. 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
85′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 100–0–0
85′⚽ GOAL · 84' Fittja 3–1 Nyköping
88′A goal for Fittja on 88′ — 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Fittja 4–1 Nyköping
89′5 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Fittja 4–1 Nyköping
FTFittja 4–1 Nyköping · Nyköping win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Nyköping just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Fittja 36%, draw 24%, Nyköping 40%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Fittja v NyköpingBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Fittja win36%

Draw24%

Nyköping win40%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundSödra Svealand · matchday 26

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Fittja

Nyköping

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Division 2 - Södra Svealand

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Nyköping	25	+19	46
8	Fittja	25	−3	33

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · nyköping winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

40% The market54%

Us40%

~~Market~~54%

We make Nyköping a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 14 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Fittja v Nyköping~~1.31 – 1.39

~~Form · last six in Division 2 - Södra Svealand this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 33 v 46~~8 v 3

~~The market · Nyköping win~~54% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Nyköping win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fittja win	36%	23%	+13
Draw	24%	23%	+1
Nyköping win	40%	54%	−14
Over 2.5 goals	50%	69%	−19
Both teams to score	53%	68%	−15
Over 1.5 goals	74%	86%	−12
Over 3.5 goals	29%	50%	−21
Fittja or draw	60%	46%	+14
Fittja clean sheet	25%	–	–
Nyköping clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 6.4 10.1 6.5 3.1 1 9.5 11.3 8.3 3.9 2 5.8 7.8 5.4 2.5 3 2.6 3.5 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fittja down, Nyköping across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,115 Division 2 - Södra Svealand matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division 2 - Södra Svealand matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.3% of games this season, across 175 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2025 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Fittja at home: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Nyköping away: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for Fittja, 1.39 for Nyköping. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~NYK 0–2 FIT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Division 2 - Södra Svealand this season · since 5 Sept

FITTJA

DLWLLL0–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–2

NYKÖPING

WWLWDW3–0 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 4–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Farsta	25	+24	49
2	Sleipner	25	+15	48
3	Nyköping	25	+19	46
4	Forward	25	+15	44
5	Haninge	25	+12	43
6	Rågsved	25	+9	42
7	Smedby	25	+7	36
8	Fittja	25	−3	33
9	Örebro Syrianska	25	−1	31
10	Karlslund	25	−4	31
11	Nacka Iliria	25	−18	27
12	Syrianska FC	25	−15	26
13	Lindo FF	25	−19	20
14	Eker Örebro	25	−41	18