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Växjö Norra v Oskarshamns AIK

Växjö Norra

4–1Full time

Oskarshamns AIK

Division 2 - Södra Götaland · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

Växjö Norra 4–1 Oskarshamns AIK OSKARSHAMNS AIK WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Oskarshamns AIK win~~44%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.716

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.625

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Oskarshamns AIK win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Oskarshamns AIK was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 32–24–44
1′KICK-OFF Växjö Norra v Oskarshamns AIK
7′A goal for Växjö Norra on 6′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 57–21–23
7′We said Oskarshamns AIK at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 1–0 · 57–21–23
7′⚽ GOAL · 6' Växjö Norra 1–0 Oskarshamns AIK
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 7' Oskarshamns AIK win: 44% at kick-off, 23% now
7′THE CALL SWINGS · 7' Växjö Norra win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Oskarshamns AIK win 23%)
21′We said Oskarshamns AIK at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 58–22–19
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 1–0 · 60–23–17
37′Växjö Norra score on 36′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 85–11–5
37′We said Oskarshamns AIK at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 5%. 2–0 · 85–11–5
37′⚽ GOAL · 36' Växjö Norra 2–0 Oskarshamns AIK
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Oskarshamns AIK win: 44% at kick-off, 5% now
38′We said Oskarshamns AIK at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–0 · 85–10–4
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Oskarshamns AIK win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
45′HALF-TIME Växjö Norra 2–0 Oskarshamns AIK
46′SECOND HALF Växjö Norra 2–0 Oskarshamns AIK
55′Oskarshamns AIK find the net on 55′. 2–1. 2–1 · 67–23–10
55′We said Oskarshamns AIK at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 10%. 2–1 · 67–23–10
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Växjö Norra 2–1 Oskarshamns AIK
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Oskarshamns AIK win: 44% at kick-off, 10% now
60′A goal for Växjö Norra on 59′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 92–6–1
60′4 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 92–6–1
60′⚽ GOAL · 59' Växjö Norra 3–1 Oskarshamns AIK
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' Oskarshamns AIK win: 44% at kick-off, 1% now
85′Växjö Norra score on 85′ to make it 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
85′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 100–0–0
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Växjö Norra 4–1 Oskarshamns AIK
FTFULL TIME Växjö Norra 4–1 Oskarshamns AIK
FTVäxjö Norra 4–1 Oskarshamns AIK · Oskarshamns AIK win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Oskarshamns AIK are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Växjö Norra 32%, draw 24%, Oskarshamns AIK 44%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Växjö Norra v Oskarshamns AIKBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Växjö Norra win32%

Draw24%

Oskarshamns AIK win44%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundSödra Götaland · matchday 26

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Växjö Norra

Oskarshamns AIK

8Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Last match: 12 Oct · Division 2 - Södra Götaland

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Oskarshamns AIK	25	+28	45
7	Växjö Norra	25	−4	35

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · oskarshamns aik winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 05:48 · locked at kick-off

44% The market39%

Us44%

~~Market~~39%

We make Oskarshamns AIK a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Växjö Norra v Oskarshamns AIK~~1.45 – 1.74

~~Form · last six in Division 2 - Södra Götaland this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 35 v 45~~7 v 3

~~The market · Oskarshamns AIK win~~39% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Oskarshamns AIK win The market, margin stripped

Published at 46%, 44% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Växjö Norra win	32%	36%	−4
Draw	24%	25%	−1
Oskarshamns AIK win	44%	39%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	61%	62%	−1
Both teams to score	63%	64%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	83%	81%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	39%	41%	−2
Växjö Norra or draw	56%	61%	−5
Växjö Norra clean sheet	18%	–	–
Oskarshamns AIK clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%

0123450 4.8 6.9 6.3 3.6 1 5.7 10.7 8.8 5.1 2.3 2 4.4 7.4 6.3 3.7 3 2.1 3.6 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Växjö Norra down, Oskarshamns AIK across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,115 Division 2 - Södra Götaland matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division 2 - Södra Götaland matches have gone over 2.5 in 68.0% of games this season, across 175 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2025 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Växjö Norra at home: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Oskarshamns AIK away: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.45 goals for Växjö Norra, 1.74 for Oskarshamns AIK. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~OSK 2–0 VAX

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Division 2 - Södra Götaland this season · since 5 Sept

VÄXJÖ NORRA

WDDDLL3–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 1–3

OSKARSHAMNS AIK

LWLLWL1–2 · 7–1 · 0–2 · 3–4 · 2–0 · 1–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Karlskrona	25	+41	60
2	IFK Trelleborg	25	+29	53
3	Oskarshamns AIK	25	+28	45
4	Berga	25	+18	43
5	Nosaby	25	+7	42
6	Linero	25	+6	41
7	Växjö Norra	25	−4	35
8	Österlen	25	+1	33
9	Staffanstorp United	25	−2	29
10	Lilla Torg	25	−8	29
11	Sölvesborg	25	−11	29
12	Torns	25	−40	21
13	Räppe	25	−29	18
14	Karlshamn	25	−36	14