Torns v Sölvesborg prediction · Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

Torns 0–6 Sölvesborg SÖLVESBORG WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sölvesborg win~~51%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.357

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.395

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sölvesborg win at 51%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Sölvesborg 51% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 28–21–51
1′KICK-OFF Torns v Sölvesborg
8′Sölvesborg find the net on 8′. 0–1. 0–1 · 13–15–72
8′We said Sölvesborg at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 72%. 0–1 · 13–15–72
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Torns 0–1 Sölvesborg
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Sölvesborg win: 51% at kick-off, 72% now
12′A goal for Sölvesborg on 12′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 4–8–88
12′We said Sölvesborg at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 88%. 0–2 · 4–8–88
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Torns 0–2 Sölvesborg
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Sölvesborg win: 51% at kick-off, 88% now
24′Sölvesborg score on 24′ to make it 0–3. 0–3 · 1–3–97
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Torns 0–3 Sölvesborg
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Sölvesborg win: 51% at kick-off, 97% now
25′We said Sölvesborg at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 0–3 · 1–3–97
45′Sölvesborg find the net on 45′. 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
45′We said Sölvesborg at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–4 · 0–0–100
45′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.7 across ninety minutes. 0–4 · 0–0–100
45′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' Torns 0–4 Sölvesborg
45′HALF-TIME Torns 0–4 Sölvesborg
46′SECOND HALF Torns 0–4 Sölvesborg
75′A goal for Sölvesborg on 75′ — 0–5. 0–5 · 0–0–100
75′5 goals already, more than the 3.7 we expected for the whole match. 0–5 · 0–0–100
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Torns 0–5 Sölvesborg
81′F. Akesson Linderoth scores for Sölvesborg on 74′ — 0–5. 0–5 · 0–0–100
83′Sölvesborg score on 83′ to make it 0–6. 0–6 · 0–0–100
83′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.7 across ninety minutes. 0–6 · 0–0–100
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Torns 0–6 Sölvesborg
88′84′: K. Mansson on the scoresheet for Sölvesborg, making it 0–6. 0–6 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Torns 0–6 Sölvesborg
FTTorns 0–6 Sölvesborg · Sölvesborg win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sölvesborg are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Torns 28%, draw 21%, Sölvesborg 51%. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 69%.

The AI’s read on Torns v SölvesborgBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Torns win28%

Draw21%

Sölvesborg win51%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundSödra Götaland · matchday 26

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Torns

Sölvesborg

7Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Last match: 10 Oct · Division 2 - Södra Götaland

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Sölvesborg	25	−11	29
12	Torns	25	−40	21

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sölvesborg winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

51% The market49%

Us51%

~~Market~~49%

We make Sölvesborg a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.6–2.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Torns v Sölvesborg~~1.56 – 2.18

~~Form · last six in Division 2 - Södra Götaland this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 21 v 29~~12 v 11

~~The market · Sölvesborg win~~49% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sölvesborg win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Torns win	28%	28%	0
Draw	21%	24%	−3
Sölvesborg win	51%	49%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	71%	66%	+5
Both teams to score	69%	67%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	89%	83%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	51%	46%	+5
Torns or draw	49%	51%	−2
Torns clean sheet	12%	–	–
Sölvesborg clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.6%

0123450 2.9 5.0 5.7 4.1 2.3 1 3.5 8.5 8.6 6.2 3.4 2 3.0 6.2 6.6 4.7 2.6 3 3.3 3.4 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Torns down, Sölvesborg across0–5 goals a side shown (96.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,115 Division 2 - Södra Götaland matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division 2 - Södra Götaland matches have gone over 2.5 in 68.0% of games this season, across 175 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.33 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Torns at home: 1.33 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Sölvesborg away: 1.17 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.56 goals for Torns, 2.18 for Sölvesborg. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.33

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~SOL 1–3 TOR · SOL 4–2 TOR · TOR 0–0 SOL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Division 2 - Södra Götaland this season · since 5 Sept

TORNS

LWLLLL1–3 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–5 · 0–2 · 0–5

SÖLVESBORG

WLLWLD3–2 · 0–2 · 1–4 · 3–2 · 0–4 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Karlskrona	25	+41	60
2	IFK Trelleborg	25	+29	53
3	Oskarshamns AIK	25	+28	45
4	Berga	25	+18	43
5	Nosaby	25	+7	42
6	Linero	25	+6	41
7	Växjö Norra	25	−4	35
8	Österlen	25	+1	33
9	Staffanstorp United	25	−2	29
10	Lilla Torg	25	−8	29
11	Sölvesborg	25	−11	29
12	Torns	25	−40	21
13	Räppe	25	−29	18
14	Karlshamn	25	−36	14